We need to start well. If we're to make an impact then we probably need to win this first game against Toronto. If we can back that up with a win in France, then making the MPG starts looking like a possibility. Lose both of them and we then have SL opposition to face and losing 7 from 7 becomes more likely.
We have more strength in depth now, but we need to learn how to play without Muzza being able to influence everything (every team will target him). Last game is against London, and if we can somehow win those first two games, then we'll still have it in our own hands to play in the MPG by winning that game even if we lose to all 4 SL teams.
Btw, Sky have obviously already dismissed us as cannon fodder with no games planned for us on TV yet.