General Election campaign : Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:29 pm  

The campaign gathers steam. Just received a begging letter from Boris / Conservative party (presumably aimed at my son). If you donate £50 or more you can ask for a copy of the first official cabinet photo of them all sat around the table. Anybody want me to forward the donation form to them?

Re: General Election campaign : Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:11 am  

Dally wrote:

The campaign gathers steam. Just received a begging letter from Boris / Conservative party (presumably aimed at my son). If you donate £50 or more you can ask for a copy of the first official cabinet photo of them all sat around the table. Anybody want me to forward the donation form to them?

Despite the fixed term parliament bill, nothing much seems to have changed and the ruling party will always find a way to "need" a general election.
The Tories, without a parliamentary majority have been getting ready for a GE ever since Boris got the gig and this is regardless of just how often they tell us anything to the contrary

Can I have a copy photo for my dartboard though

Re: General Election campaign : Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:25 pm  

Election campaign has moved ahead today with decision to suspend parliament.

Re: General Election campaign : Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:46 pm  

Dally wrote:

Election campaign has moved ahead today with decision to suspend parliament.

It's going to be an interesting few days in Parliament.
The Election doesn't seem like it will take place as swiftly as Boris wanted, leaving him in charge of a minority government.
Having prorogued Parliament and threatened to sack his own MP's for not towing the line, it now appears that he could actually fail in his "do or die" bid to get Brexit done by Halloween.
The arrogant T*** believed that he could roll into town and suddenly prosper, without dealing with THE main issue (The Irish Backstop) but, alas, it all looks like it's starting to unravel.
I really dont know how this one will end but, it's certainly become intriguing.

Re: General Election campaign : Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:44 pm  

I'm not sure if Johnson cannot lose here. He is after a GE; he can call one now or wait until he loses a key vote & then does the honourable thing & calls a GE. Which terrifyingly he could win at a canter if he promises to leave EU, thus stealing Farage's only policy & their votes. The Remain vote is split between Libs/Greens (clear policy) & an unclear Labour. Or am I (hopefully) missing something & the lying, cheating, sociopath gets what he deserves?

Re: General Election campaign : Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:55 pm  

tigertot wrote:

I'm not sure if Johnson cannot lose here. He is after a GE; he can call one now or wait until he loses a key vote & then does the honourable thing & calls a GE. Which terrifyingly he could win at a canter if he promises to leave EU, thus stealing Farage's only policy & their votes. The Remain vote is split between Libs/Greens (clear policy) & an unclear Labour. Or am I (hopefully) missing something & the lying, cheating, sociopath gets what he deserves?

As I understand it there can only be a GE if either the HoC votes with a 2/3rd majority for it (and Labour are now saying they won't vote for it unless No Deal legislation is passed first) or Boris loses a no confidence vote and a new govt doesn't receive a confidence vote within 14 days? I guess the second scenario is the most likely but it may depend on the timing of any successful no confidence vote against Boris. If they go for it now, I can't see a Corbyn lead coalition being able to form a stable govt so a GE may well happen.

[Bullseye]

Re: General Election campaign : Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:52 am  

If Johnson decides to do a deal with Farage and go all out for no deal in an election manifesto (as he must if Farage isn’t going to split the leave vote) then he will have officially turned the tories into the UKIP/Brexit Party. If they win an election it will undoubtedly mean Farage in the cabinet too (if he wins a seat).

That is enough to stop quite a few non-hard right tories voting tory. They will either vote Lib Dem or stay at home. I know a few tories who certainly don’t back Johnson and his f*** business approach, that’s done him a lot of harm. Advocating no deal will reinforce that with them. They’ll never vote for Corbyn but they’ll certainly vote Lib Dem or not bother at all. I’m not sure there are enough Labour leavers who would vote for Johnson to cancel that out.

It’s also enough to make remainers and “leave with a deal” non tory voters in marginals hold their nose and vote tactically to keep a tory out.

The result will probably be a hung parliament again and more uncertainty. The whole idea of Brexit is so divisive that there will never be a clear way out that has majority backing.

Re: General Election campaign : Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:57 am  

tigertot wrote:

Which terrifyingly he could win at a canter if he promises to leave EU, thus stealing Farage's only policy & their votes. The Remain vote is split between Libs/Greens (clear policy) & an unclear Labour. Or am I (hopefully) missing something & the lying, cheating, sociopath gets what he deserves?

I'm not sure it's as clear cut as that - Johnson's whole schtick is to leave with no deal, and of the c30% of the whole electorate who voted to leave, I'd say that a significant proportion of those people absolutely did not vote for no deal; so it's by no means certain that they'd all vote for Johnson's extreme version of Brexit.

I do agree though that the votes against are likely to be split - lots of centrists seem to have fallen for Austerity Jo's Tory-lite politics - and I can absolutely guarantee you that she would go into coalition with Boris Johnson in a heartbeat; so we could end up back in the situation of a Tory government, propped up by FidDems, with the ministerial car being sufficient downpayment for their principles and values.

Re: General Election campaign : Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:30 am  

bren2k wrote:

I'm not sure it's as clear cut as that - Johnson's whole schtick is to leave with no deal, and of the c30% of the whole electorate who voted to leave, I'd say that a significant proportion of those people absolutely did not vote for no deal; so it's by no means certain that they'd all vote for Johnson's extreme version of Brexit.

I do agree though that the votes against are likely to be split - lots of centrists seem to have fallen for Austerity Jo's Tory-lite politics - and I can absolutely guarantee you that she would go into coalition with Boris Johnson in a heartbeat; so we could end up back in the situation of a Tory government, propped up by FidDems, with the ministerial car being sufficient downpayment for their principles and values.

Do you really think that with Brexit yet to be resolved, that the Libdems would jump into bed with Boris ??
I know that Clegg, so desperate to sit in the big chair, utterly sold his soul and almost destroyed the Libdems.

Do you seriously believe that they would follow that same path again. It's quite likely that with Corbyn, STILL undecided on the whole Brexit issue, that, The Lib dems will eat into Labours vote and equally possible that there will be an arrangement between the Lib dems and Labour, not to go head to head in certain seats, to ensure that we dont get Boris returned to power, which would be THE worst outcome.

I think your "guarantee" is way, way off the mark

[Bullseye]

Re: General Election campaign : Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:29 pm  

I could see LibDems doing a deal with a tory party with a different leader post Brexit. Johnson I think is too toxic as is his sidekick Cummings.

For Labour I don’t think their position of getting power and trying to do their own Brexit deal and having a referendum on it (and then possibly campaigning to remain) is good enough to stop the hard remain from going to the Libdems or keep Labour leavers on board. At some point they are going to have to choose who they need most.