Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:28 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

IF there were a general election, it wold probably resolve the issue.
We would either end up with a no deal Brexit (the Gove / Rees-Mogg option) or a much softer Brexit (the Corbyn option).
Either way, a general election would re shape the outcome.

It would make no difference whatsoever. I had you more intelligent than to believe Labour's transparent and substanceless bluster.

Labour are not going to get into No.10. If the Tories get a bigger majority then May's deal is more likely to succeed, not less. The ERG are the ERG, they command less authority than people like to believe - although that's not to say they haven't been a disruptive influence. And don't forget Tory divisions are along Brexit lines only - on most other issues they are united, unlike Labour.

If the Tory majority decreases, we're back to square one and a no deal looks more likely. The only glimmer of hope right now is that the EU - as I predicted - is blinking in the face of a no-deal, and is discussing a small extension.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:50 pm  

Cronus wrote:

The only glimmer of hope right now is that the EU - as I predicted - is blinking in the face of a no-deal, and is discussing a small extension.

It’s funny how people can look at the same thing and see it so differently.

This would be in response to the request of the UK prime minister? But offering something shorter than she requested, with conditions as to whether it will be a bit shorter or much shorter. They’re clearly filling their nappies. Rule Britannia!

They’re as sick and tired of this as we are, and they have less to lose.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:10 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

It’s funny how people can look at the same thing and see it so differently.

This would be in response to the request of the UK prime minister? But offering something shorter than she requested, with conditions as to whether it will be a bit shorter or much shorter. They’re clearly filling their nappies. Rule Britannia!

They’re as sick and tired of this as we are, and they have less to lose.

If the EU are in the driving seat and have so much less to lose, why would they agree an extension after all their hard talk? Why not simply let the clock run down?

Because they know a no-deal outcome is disastrous for Ireland and damages the EU economy massively. They cannot be seen to allow negotiations to fail to that point. It would be as much a failure for them as it would be for us.

Ironically, by refusing to allow the deal to be voted on again, Bercow actually steered us towards no deal at speed and has forced the EU to agree an extension for fear of a no-deal outcome. Remember, Parliament's 'no no-deal' vote is not binding and means sweet FA to the EU.

The conveniently-ignored truth is that: if you don't want no-deal, you MUST vote for some deal. Too many MPs are doing their best to avoid this fact.

Believe it or not, nobody in the EU wants us to leave. Except maybe the dastardly French . But if we are going to leave, they want to carry on working together to the benefit of all, without giving us anything TOO cushy...hence the deal that has been negotiated.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:13 pm  

JesusHChrist...listening to this Labour muppet Thomas-Symonds on QT tells you all you need to know about why we're not making progress.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:55 pm  

Cronus wrote:

If the EU are in the driving seat and have so much less to lose, why would they agree an extension after all their hard talk? Why not simply let the clock run down?

Because they know a no-deal outcome is disastrous for Ireland and damages the EU economy massively. They cannot be seen to allow negotiations to fail to that point. It would be as much a failure for them as it would be for us.

Ironically, by refusing to allow the deal to be voted on again, Bercow actually steered us towards no deal at speed and has forced the EU to agree an extension for fear of a no-deal outcome. Remember, Parliament's 'no no-deal' vote is not binding and means sweet FA to the EU.

The conveniently-ignored truth is that: if you don't want no-deal, you MUST vote for some deal. Too many MPs are doing their best to avoid this fact.

Believe it or not, nobody in the EU wants us to leave. Except maybe the dastardly French . But if we are going to leave, they want to carry on working together to the benefit of all, without giving us anything TOO cushy...hence the deal that has been negotiated.

Not wanting no deal is not the same as ‘blinking’ to my mind, but I suppose that is semantics and expectations need to be managed.

There is no equivalence of hazard or responsibility, imo. The country hit hardest by no deal would be the UK, so if it will be disasterous for Ireland and massively damaging for the EU, how would you describe the impact on the UK? 17.4 million UK voters took this decision and our Prime Minister laid down her red lines. The EU responded in an utterly predictable way, and we were scoobied that it turned out David Davis had been speaking rubbish - astonishing really, but there you are.
Out of interest, if we get to a deal, will you give equal credit to the EU for that success?

While I agree that MPs have to vote for a deal to avoid no deal, the only people that can be blamed for not voting for the one May has negotiated are the ERG. She made this deal for them, and it is a bit rich to blame a tall bloke for not buying a suit tailored for a short bloke. If May is genuinely affronted that a group of opposition MPs that she has not sought to engage with or involve are unimpressed with her deal, it is pretty shocking. If she means her own backbenchers, I understand why she doesn’t say it, but i’ve little sympathy. The worse they’ve behaved, the more she has sought to appease them and currently it looks like it’ll end in failure - perhaps it was inevitable.

The EU won’t offer anything new unless or until May’s red lines are removed. That almost certainly would require removing May.

No deal, with minimal preparedness - economic meltdown cack
No Brexit - anti-democratic cack
May’s deal - unpopular cack
Softer Brexit renegotiation - months or even years of new cack

So much lovely cack to choose from.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:30 am  

Mild Rover wrote:

Not wanting no deal is not the same as ‘blinking’ to my mind, but I suppose that is semantics and expectations need to be managed.

There is no equivalence of hazard or responsibility, imo. The country hit hardest by no deal would be the UK, so if it will be disasterous for Ireland and massively damaging for the EU, how would you describe the impact on the UK? 17.4 million UK voters took this decision and our Prime Minister laid down her red lines. The EU responded in an utterly predictable way, and we were scoobied that it turned out David Davis had been speaking rubbish - astonishing really, but there you are.
Out of interest, if we get to a deal, will you give equal credit to the EU for that success?

While I agree that MPs have to vote for a deal to avoid no deal, the only people that can be blamed for not voting for the one May has negotiated are the ERG. She made this deal for them, and it is a bit rich to blame a tall bloke for not buying a suit tailored for a short bloke. If May is genuinely affronted that a group of opposition MPs that she has not sought to engage with or involve are unimpressed with her deal, it is pretty shocking. If she means her own backbenchers, I understand why she doesn’t say it, but i’ve little sympathy. The worse they’ve behaved, the more she has sought to appease them and currently it looks like it’ll end in failure - perhaps it was inevitable.

The EU won’t offer anything new unless or until May’s red lines are removed. That almost certainly would require removing May.

No deal, with minimal preparedness - economic meltdown cack
No Brexit - anti-democratic cack
May’s deal - unpopular cack
Softer Brexit renegotiation - months or even years of new cack

So much lovely cack to choose from.

I'm baffled as to why you're so convinced May's deal is for the ERG? They hate it, she's a Remainer at heart, and the deal is nothing more than 'centre Brexit'. Fact is, we voted to leave, for reasons mainly of sovereignty and immigration, amongst others. May knows it and has been doing her best to honour that. Nothing to do with the ERG.

So - while I do not absolve the ERG of responsibility - you think it's fine for opposition MPs to put their own individual agendas ahead of the common good? For your ERG, I give you the Independent Group. Or other hard Remainers. Or pro-Customs Unionists. Or pro-Freedom of Movementists. Or pro-Single Marketeers. Or the plethora of other agendas. All have done their best to stall proceedings. It's not a party issue. That should be clear.

As for the impact on Ireland/EU vs the impact on the UK - are you seriously suggesting the strategy of 27 European governments is "oh well it might hurt us, but it'll hurt the UK more so that's ok"??? Even if I thought the EU might be thinking that, they are under enormous pressure from EU industry to get this sorted in a productive manner. If you don't think that's true you don't understand European markets or the influence the heads of European industry wield.

Anyway, today May told the EU in no uncertain terms that we are prepared to leave with no deal. They blinked. That says everything. It's very simple.

And yes, if we reach a deal I'll give the EU credit. Why wouldn't I? They want a good deal, as do we. A good deal for the EU is a good deal for us.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:27 am  

The ERG hate anything that further confirms the end of our glorious imperial past and fundamentally don’t understand things like reality.

May’s isn’t remotely a centrist compromise deal. The only option on the far side of what she is offering is no deal, while there are 2 or 3 options on its softer side. Basically there are red lines that she could soften or drop, but not many more that she could add.

It is inevitable that MPs will push their own priorities. What’s the point of going into politics if you’re just going to do what you’re told? To their minds pursuing their agenda is for the common good - that’s why it is there preference. We do need to compromise, but everybody seems to think that it is somebody else who should give way, and May has been extremely inflexible - although I accept she is something of a hostage to her party. As I said previously, this isn’t primarily about personalities.

The corollary to your suggestion that the EU isn’t stupid enough to allow a no deal, which you think the UK is willing to countenance, is that the UK is stupid. Winning by application of stubborn stupidity would be one up for bulldog spirit I suppose.

If you think that our PM having to ask for extension, having to leave the room while the EU27 wearily decide our immediate fate and dictate the next steps is anything other than a humiliation, well... then i’m happy for you. There’s not much cause for positivity, so well done on salvaging some.

Any long extension would be to negotiate a softer brexit, because the only harder option available is no deal and that doesn’t need negotiation.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:10 am  

Cronus wrote:

It would make no difference whatsoever. I had you more intelligent than to believe Labour's transparent and substanceless bluster.

Labour are not going to get into No.10. If the Tories get a bigger majority then May's deal is more likely to succeed, not less. The ERG are the ERG, they command less authority than people like to believe - although that's not to say they haven't been a disruptive influence. And don't forget Tory divisions are along Brexit lines only - on most other issues they are united, unlike Labour.

If the Tory majority decreases, we're back to square one and a no deal looks more likely. The only glimmer of hope right now is that the EU - as I predicted - is blinking in the face of a no-deal, and is discussing a small extension.

Cheers pal.

You may have to remind me where I've said that Labour would win a GE (be sure to have a really good look)
As for the Tories increased majority, maybe and maybe not. If you had a better memory, you would remember the last election where the Tories expected to increase their majority and spectacularly dropped the ball, which left them cuddling up to the DUP, which is the main cause of the current debacle.

As for the Tories being united, I'm not so sure.
The divisions caused over Brexit wont suddenly disappear and they have to decide on a new leader soon which could be mighty interesting.
The Tories very quickly revert to type, still promising tax cuts, whilst at the same time watching suicide rates climb ever higher through their failed Universal Credit roll out. Squeezing the poor lovers at the bottom of the pile so hard that they have to take a different option but, for some people this seems like a price worth paying

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:15 am  

There are some delusional Labour followers on these threads, but that is to be expected from The Socialist Worker website.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:15 am  

MGarbutt1986 wrote:

There are some delusional Labour followers on these threads, but that is to be expected from The Socialist Worker website.

Eeee this retirement lark is not turning out how you imagined is it old timer? Sat in front of your ageing PC 12 hours a day in pee stained undies raging at the world, while your already poor diction & ability to string together a coherent sentence evaporates completely in front of your failing eyes. You imagined you would retire to the Med, but Brexit & your friends at the HMRC put paid to that. Your only instant gratification is throwing out attempts at cheap insults to people far brighter than yourself. No wonder you aren’t happy.