Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:41 pm  

Ajw71 wrote:

Of course it's wrong. You are wrong now and will be even more wrong with every quarterly GDP figure.

Now I have given you an opportunity to admit you are wrong but you have continued with this bizarre line of reply in an attempt to save face.

You will therefore be reminded how wrong you are with every GDP figure released - I cannot wait.

Why is he wrong? How much has the economy grown by since his post?

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:41 pm  

Ajw71 wrote:

Good news about falling unemployment isn't it Mintball? You talk about jobs regularly on here.

No response to being proved totally ignorant over growth from 2010?

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:42 pm  

Mintball wrote:

No response to being proved totally ignorant over growth from 2010?

And growth in 2013. But shhh, he still thinks he knows what he's on about!

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:44 pm  

Mintball wrote:

So, after the 2008 crash, the UK economy returned to growth in the third quarter of 2009 and continued in growth until the fourth quarter of 2010, when it dipped to -0.5. Of the following six quarters, only two showed growth and were not successive.

Ergo: "The economy was in growth in 2010. The policies of the incoming government put paid to that and sent the country back into recession."

The definition of a recession (which I am sure you know) is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

Please tell me the two consecutive quarters since 2010 of negative growth? Thanks.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:45 pm  

Mintball wrote:

No response to being proved totally ignorant over growth from 2010?

Did you wince? Did it upset you to see falling unemployment? Would you rather unemployment rises so that you have a bit more ammunition to attack the Government with?

I ask again, good news isn't it?

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:05 pm  

You going to tell us why DaveO is wrong? How much has the economy grown since his post?

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:09 pm  

Ajw71 wrote:

The definition of a recession (which I am sure you know) is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

Please tell me the two consecutive quarters since 2010 of negative growth? Thanks.

2011 Q4 to 2012 Q2 – -0.3, -0.2, -0.4. That's three in succession.

If you cannot look at those two graphs and see that for yourself, I suggest you nip along to Specsavers.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:11 pm  

Ajw71 wrote:

Did you wince? Did it upset you to see falling unemployment? Would you rather unemployment rises so that you have a bit more ammunition to attack the Government with?...

I merely wondered whether these are real jobs – ones that, for instance, do not depend on zero-hours contracts and only a few hours a week.

Do you understand the issue of underemployment? Do you understand that it is costing the country money, as many people who are in work, but on only limited or widely variable hours, need benefits to survive?

It is also why unemployment didn't rise to the levels expected by economists, because it acts as a mask to the full picture.

Mind, I note that today's figure – however much it has been manipulated – shows that unemployment is "at its lowest since 2009". In other words, the years since have seen unemployment rising and it's not even yet back to the level a year after the crash.

[DaveO]

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:55 pm  

Ajw71 wrote:

Of course it's wrong. You are wrong now and will be even more wrong with every quarterly GDP figure.

Now I have given you an opportunity to admit you are wrong but you have continued with this bizarre line of reply in an attempt to save face.

You will therefore be reminded how wrong you are with every GDP figure released - I cannot wait.

You carry on. The only person you are fooling is yourself.

[DaveO]

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:43 pm  

Ajw71 wrote:

So unemployment falling is actually a bad thing? Seriously?

I didn't say that did I?

I merely pointed out the consequence of it falling below 7% is (supposed to be) rising interest rates.

If the unemployment figures are flattered by things like workfare there is a certain irony there in that something Osborne does not want, rising interest rates, would come about because they moved heaven and earth to get the figures down by doing things like setting job centres targets for getting people off JSA and that takes the unemployment figures below 7%.

So on the one hand the government can point to the figures and say aren't we great (ignoring the debate about whether these jobs are paying a living wage) but on the other they are going to have to deal with home owners (and businesses) seeing the mortgage and lending rate rise.

Now given at least two opinion polls since November have said most people are not feeling the benefit of the recovery that feel-good factor Cameron wants to have by 2015 is going to take a big knock if we have add rising mortgage payments to ever increasing fuel bills.

It is also not what Osborne wants as the last thing he needs is business lending to become more expensive and demand hit because people have even less money in their pocket. Rising interest rates will also increase the value of the Pound so our exports will become more expensive. A devalued pound is what Osborne wants, not one rising in value.

The B of E have been caught out as they felt unemployment would hit 7% in 2016. Well into the next parliament so safely away from increased mortgage rates coming in before the next election. It could now do it in 2014 and so there is chance mortgages rates will rise before the election.

The B of E may deem inflation low enough and pay settlements low enough not to raise interest rates the minute unemployment dips below 7% but they can't hold off forever because again (ironically) increasing employment tightens the labour market forcing wages (and so inflation) up and low interest rates for a prolonged period like we have had risk creating a boom-bust scenario in the housing market.

All this is pretty much just common sense but you'd have to look at the bigger picture than just a set of unemployment statistics to see it.