Cronus wrote:
And here we have the perfect example of why Brexit is such a dog to get through.
You are utterly convinced in your views of May's deal. You think it's a 'hard' Brexit. You think the 'red lines' are a problem. That's your view. It's not necessarily wrong, however stating it as fact is erroneous.
I don't agree. I think the deal is a 'reasonable' Brexit and will do a job. I think the red lines are exactly what we voted for: to leave. I don't want a 'hard' Brexit but I believe that if Brexit is too soft there's no point in leaving. Remove the red lines and we might as well stay. That's my view.
Between you and me and everywhere else to our left and right are millions of other views, from the ERG to die-hard Remainers. As well as those using the issue to do nothing more than attack the government and in particular Theresa May. Unfortunately for us all, in Parliament there are more MPs to the hard and soft extremes than there are willing to take a reasonable line and vote for the deal on the table.
As for no deal, you're taking a simplistic and with respect, blinkered view. We need no-deal on the table to force the EU to blink, which is proven by the fact they have (driven by the clock ticking and oddly, Bercow's stunt). Of course we don't want to leave without a deal (and the vast majority would agree), but it needs to be there as a negotiating tool. The threat of no-deal and damage to Ireland and the EU economy is the only reason the EU have agreed an extension. Will they blink again? Well, what are Ireland saying behind closed doors? I can't imagine Varadkar is anything but terrified of a no-deal. What levels of lobbying are they getting from heads of EU industry and nations who trade heavily with us?
A no-deal would be as much a failure of the EU as it would Parliament.
But yes ultimately if nothing can be agreed, we go. Legally we have no choice right now, unless you want to see A50 revoked, the destruction of faith in our democratic system and a huge upsurge in the hard right?
I broadly agree with you about the best outcome now on the table. This was always going to be a dog to get through, as you say. While I'm not a huge fan of May's deal, it is the least risky and distasteful way forward at this point, imo. In its favour:
1. It isn't absolutely terrible, and is certainly better than no deal
2. It delivers on the democratic mandate for Brexit and couldn't fairly be called a BRINO (yes, there's the backstop, but remove that an the underlying problem remains)
3. We can get this part of the process over and done with now
So while it'd be too much to say I support it, i accept it. Unfortunately, I fear we're going to end with something worse because everybody in power is trapped in one way or another. Maybe, at the last moment our MPs, including May, will realise that and it'll get through, but somebody has to take the first step, make the first minor concession - there are some strong incentives acting against that, and it seems unlikely
today. They say 'a week is long time in politics', and while a lot has to change, if one domino falls... you never know.
The whole threat of self-immolation to get the EU to 'blink', I read completely differently. It had little-to-no value initially, the EU haven't blinked (both imo, of course), and at this point what more would we ask for anyway? The only request we're allowed now is for a longer extension, and that'd be to go in a defined direction more palatable to them so would hardly be 'blinking'.
If May's deal is voted down again, our options are no deal on the 12th of April or a request for an extension based on a new position that they approve of. With respect,
I think you so expect them to blink that you're seeing things that aren't there. We, the UK, are free to choose, but only from those three options. At this stage, narrower options help us - Thank EU.
Also, I'm a bit tired of the threat of hard right being used to guide us anywhere and force the rest of us to blink. Cuddling up to nutters doesn't seem to be working for May, and I think there's a lesson there. If we have to base our politics from here on, on managing bigoted and fascistic tendencies from the fringes then we're doomed anyway.
