Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Fri Aug 09, 2019 11:34 am  

IR80 wrote:

Thing is, I know facts.

IR80 Fact 1 - Whaley Bridge is in Yorkshire
IR80 Fact 2 - Hetherington is involved with the RFL

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:27 am  

The Devil's Advocate wrote:

So, the U.K. economy shrinks for the first time since 2012 & the pound in now down to £1.08 against the Euro.

The slow motion car crash is starting to accelerate, but no fear, everything will be fine, in the future when all's well.

Difficult to take Q2 figures in isolation - Q2 was impacted by stock increases in Q1 due to supposed exit 31 March. Put the two together and you have a growth of 0.3 - in line with France.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:51 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Difficult to take Q2 figures in isolation - Q2 was impacted by stock increases in Q1 due to supposed exit 31 March. Put the two together and you have a growth of 0.3 - in line with France.

I guess we'll find out when the next quarter is finished.

If I was a gambling man, I'd give you even money on another flat quarter or possibly a technical recession.

There was a "secret" boom in Q1 due to companies stock piling to take the "bumps" out of any issues with importing post Brexit.
Those companies then had to sell their excess stocks, meaning reduced purchasing.
I'm not sure that averaging Q1 and Q2 gives you the true indicator you will need to wait a little longer to find out just how strong and stable we are as the cliff edge gets ever closer.

And this is only the beginning of the "project fear" predictions.
As Bachman Turner Overdrive put it, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Boris will be borrowing, like Labour on speed, just to try and maintain some growth.

Look back to the original Brexit thread for "I told you so".

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:54 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

I guess we'll find out when the next quarter is finished.

If I was a gambling man, I'd give you even money on another flat quarter or possibly a technical recession.

There was a "secret" boom in Q1 due to companies stock piling to take the "bumps" out of any issues with importing post Brexit.
Those companies then had to sell their excess stocks, meaning reduced purchasing.
I'm not sure that averaging Q1 and Q2 gives you the true indicator you will need to wait a little longer to find out just how strong and stable we are as the cliff edge gets ever closer.

And this is only the beginning of the "project fear" predictions.
As Bachman Turner Overdrive put it, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Boris will be borrowing, like Labour on speed, just to try and maintain some growth.

Look back to the original Brexit thread for "I told you so".

I look at this and even the worst projections are nowhere near the detrimental impact of the banking crisis and we have managed to survive that intact with reasonable economic performance. We also have the 39bn as a buffer that could be injected into the economy to help mitigate the impact of the leaving with no deal.

What is obvious is that May was completely out of depth as a negotiator and has negatively impacted the whole position

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:54 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I look at this and even the worst projections are nowhere near the detrimental impact of the banking crisis

Depends whose projections you read I suppose.

Sal Paradise wrote:

and we have managed to survive that intact with reasonable economic performance.

Is that the royal "we"? How do you define "survive"?

Sal Paradise wrote:

We also have the 39bn as a buffer that could be injected into the economy to help mitigate the impact of the leaving with no deal.

I think most of that if not all will be paid eventually in order to get a trade deal.

No deal should be avoided. It wasn't what was advertised in the referendum. Nor is it in anyway good for the UK.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:56 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

we have managed to survive that intact

We went from sunlit uplands and the easiest trade deal in history - to this - in 3 years; what a fu**ing joke we have become.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:51 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I look at this and even the worst projections are nowhere near the detrimental impact of the banking crisis and we have managed to survive that intact with reasonable economic performance. We also have the 39bn as a buffer that could be injected into the economy to help mitigate the impact of the leaving with no deal.

What is obvious is that May was completely out of depth as a negotiator and has negatively impacted the whole position

The point is that YOU and your ilk have voted in the recession that is looming and for what ?
So that we can create our own laws and "control" immigration ??

Over half of the current immigration was "controlled", with around 300,000 people coming into the UK from outside the EU ??

I fully understand the issues around sovereignty, although on the flip side, we literally be a stand alone island, going it alone, without the protection and opportunities that arise from being part of the largest trading bloc in the western world.

I just hope that you will enjoy the higher prices and interest rate increases that will be coming our way, after all, it's what you wanted

The £39 billion is a debt owed to the EU for that which WE agreed.
Are you seriously suggesting that our once great nation begins it's new independent life by reneging on it's debts.
That will really elevate our status, NOT.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:34 pm  

bren2k wrote:

We went from sunlit uplands and the easiest trade deal in history - to this - in 3 years; what a fu**ing joke we have become.

If it was just a trade deal we wouldn’t have voted to leave. And yes the country was perfect right up to June 2016..not

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:42 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

The point is that YOU and your ilk have voted in the recession that is looming and for what ?
So that we can create our own laws and "control" immigration ??

Over half of the current immigration was "controlled", with around 300,000 people coming into the UK from outside the EU ??

I fully understand the issues around sovereignty, although on the flip side, we literally be a stand alone island, going it alone, without the protection and opportunities that arise from being part of the largest trading bloc in the western world.

I just hope that you will enjoy the higher prices and interest rate increases that will be coming our way, after all, it's what you wanted

The £39 billion is a debt owed to the EU for that which WE agreed.
Are you seriously suggesting that our once great nation begins it's new independent life by reneging on it's debts.
That will really elevate our status, NOT.

IMF have predicted we will have same growth as France, are they leaving the EU. Oh and higher growth than Germany, don't think they're leaving either.
And yeah they can whistle for the 39 billion without a decent deal.
As for opportunities the EU world market share is decreasing and predicted to continue to do so.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:06 pm  

bren2k wrote:

We went from sunlit uplands and the easiest trade deal in history - to this - in 3 years; what a fu**ing joke we have become.

Do you not remember the bus? "Vote Brexit. It won't be quite as bad as the Great Recession"?

Also if the UK decides not to pay for its commitments (not that 39bn is a huge figure in context) it will become an international pariah.