Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:08 pm  

wotsupcas wrote:

IMF have predicted we will have same growth as France, are they leaving the EU. Oh and higher growth than Germany, don't think they're leaving either.
And yeah they can whistle for the 39 billion without a decent deal.
As for opportunities the EU world market share is decreasing and predicted to continue to do so.

Just for the record, the IMF growth forecast for the UK is based on an orderly exit from the EU along with a transition period and not for Mr Johnson's "do or die" version of Brexit.

Of course, there may be a new deal brokered but, I wouldn't bank on it (pun intended).
And do your really think that "they can whistle for the 39 billion without a decent deal" is going to help the UK.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:34 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Just for the record, the IMF growth forecast for the UK is based on an orderly exit from the EU along with a transition period and not for Mr Johnson's "do or die" version of Brexit.

Of course, there may be a new deal brokered but, I wouldn't bank on it (pun intended).
And do your really think that "they can whistle for the 39 billion without a decent deal" is going to help the UK.

We agreed the 39 billion as part of the withdrawal agreement. If we leave without a deal there is no agreement.
I'll admit that legal opinion is divided on the matter but I wouldn't just hand it over without a fight.
And why are you so fixated on the emoji?

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:01 am  

wotsupcas wrote:

We agreed the 39 billion as part of the withdrawal agreement. If we leave without a deal there is no agreement.
I'll admit that legal opinion is divided on the matter but I wouldn't just hand it over without a fight.
And why are you so fixated on the emoji?

I dont think that there is any grey area on the £39 billion at all.
The threat of not paying is just "grandstanding" from a few of our politicians, which just makes them look stupid, although it makes great headlines it's just political bluster.
As for the emoji, it's better to use that than go off on full rant mode.
The ruling political classes on the right of the Tory party have pushed the Brexit agenda ever since we joined the common market as they are obsessed with ruling our small island, regardless of whether it is beneficial to the population as a whole and again, some of the much less well off have been taken in, voting themselves a poorer future.
Sold on the idea of shrinking immigration and fake prosperity it was all too easy to vote against Cameron and Osborne.

We're now 10 weeks away from Halloween and NOBODY knows what happens on November 1st, it's absolutely crazy - and that's without the emoji.

Perhaps THE most ironic aspect so far, of Boris's reign, is that, we are supposedly fighting to have a sovereign Parliament and yet, he wants to close down Parliament to force through his Brexit agenda and again, certain factions of the voting public think that he would be right to do so.

From democracy to a dictatorship in just a few short weeks.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:48 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

I dont think that there is any grey area on the £39 billion at all.
The threat of not paying is just "grandstanding" from a few of our politicians, which just makes them look stupid, although it makes great headlines it's just political bluster.
As for the emoji, it's better to use that than go off on full rant mode.
The ruling political classes on the right of the Tory party have pushed the Brexit agenda ever since we joined the common market as they are obsessed with ruling our small island, regardless of whether it is beneficial to the population as a whole and again, some of the much less well off have been taken in, voting themselves a poorer future.
Sold on the idea of shrinking immigration and fake prosperity it was all too easy to vote against Cameron and Osborne.

We're now 10 weeks away from Halloween and NOBODY knows what happens on November 1st, it's absolutely crazy - and that's without the emoji.

Perhaps THE most ironic aspect so far, of Boris's reign, is that, we are supposedly fighting to have a sovereign Parliament and yet, he wants to close down Parliament to force through his Brexit agenda and again, certain factions of the voting public think that he would be right to do so.

From democracy to a dictatorship in just a few short weeks.

There is a grey area as far as the 39 billion is concerned. I have read several differing outlooks on the subject.
As far as Johnson bending the rules, isn't that what the speaker and several MP'S have been doing for the last three years.
BTW nice to get a reply without being called crazy. We both are entitled to our opinions and neither of us has the divine right to be correct.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:46 am  

Meanwhile the Italian banks are still struggling with massive debts. They are propped up by the European Central Bank, which is against EU rules. The German taxpayers are becoming concerned about constantly being asked to bail out Greece and Italy.
It’s no surprise to learn that the country to lose most with a collapse of the Italian banks is France. Hence the ECB bailing out the Italian banks. In fact they have taken one over to support it’s bad debts. The French exposure to this crisis is 275 billion euros . The German exposure is 58 billion euros a large part is with Deutsche Bank. Who are also struggling in the present economic climate. Our own exposure is with Barclays for approximately 15 billion euros.
If we remain in the EU we will be expected to contribute to any bailout. It’s no wonder the EU is desperate for our 39 billion per year contribution. Money is also leaving the EU mostly going to Switzerland. The present turmoil in France has been quite deliberately kept out of the mainstream media. Understandably ,as it shows a country virtually in revolt due to plummeting wages and living standards. The people in Paris are oblivious to this scenario, similar to the chattering class in London.
Merkel and macron are papering over the EU cracks at the moment , once Merkel leaves office things will change quite dramatically. We live in interesting times.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:22 am  

Backwoodsman wrote:

Meanwhile the Italian banks are still struggling with massive debts. They are propped up by the European Central Bank, which is against EU rules. The German taxpayers are becoming concerned about constantly being asked to bail out Greece and Italy.
It’s no surprise to learn that the country to lose most with a collapse of the Italian banks is France. Hence the ECB bailing out the Italian banks. In fact they have taken one over to support it’s bad debts. The French exposure to this crisis is 275 billion euros . The German exposure is 58 billion euros a large part is with Deutsche Bank. Who are also struggling in the present economic climate. Our own exposure is with Barclays for approximately 15 billion euros.
If we remain in the EU we will be expected to contribute to any bailout. It’s no wonder the EU is desperate for our 39 billion per year contribution. Money is also leaving the EU mostly going to Switzerland. The present turmoil in France has been quite deliberately kept out of the mainstream media. Understandably ,as it shows a country virtually in revolt due to plummeting wages and living standards. The people in Paris are oblivious to this scenario, similar to the chattering class in London.
Merkel and macron are papering over the EU cracks at the moment , once Merkel leaves office things will change quite dramatically. We live in interesting times.

Small point of order.

£39 billion is the "divorce" bill and not our annual contribution, which I believe is around £13 billion ??

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:53 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Small point of order.

£39 billion is the "divorce" bill and not our annual contribution, which I believe is around £13 billion ??

Point accepted.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:52 pm  

Backwoodsman wrote:

Meanwhile the Italian banks are still struggling with massive debts. They are propped up by the European Central Bank, which is against EU rules. The German taxpayers are becoming concerned about constantly being asked to bail out Greece and Italy.
It’s no surprise to learn that the country to lose most with a collapse of the Italian banks is France. Hence the ECB bailing out the Italian banks. In fact they have taken one over to support it’s bad debts. The French exposure to this crisis is 275 billion euros . The German exposure is 58 billion euros a large part is with Deutsche Bank. Who are also struggling in the present economic climate. Our own exposure is with Barclays for approximately 15 billion euros.
If we remain in the EU we will be expected to contribute to any bailout. It’s no wonder the EU is desperate for our 39 billion per year contribution. Money is also leaving the EU mostly going to Switzerland. The present turmoil in France has been quite deliberately kept out of the mainstream media. Understandably ,as it shows a country virtually in revolt due to plummeting wages and living standards. The people in Paris are oblivious to this scenario, similar to the chattering class in London.
Merkel and macron are papering over the EU cracks at the moment , once Merkel leaves office things will change quite dramatically. We live in interesting times.

I think one of the interesting things is that there are some internally consistent and fairly compelling reasons for leaving the EU. It is far from perfect. However, no single one of those arguments, or even a sensible combination, would have been enough to win the referendum, so the leave campaigns grabbed them all, and a few that are rubbish for good measure, and offered them all, tailored to individuals’ social media profiles.

Politically it was brilliant. Really.

From a policy perspective, not so much.

You can still make a strong case for leaving the EU in an alternative reality in which we have a workable plan. But we don’t, we never did and that is why we’re knackered.

Another separate point, not relating to the post l’ve quoted: It seems like democracy is getting cited a lot in some quarters to justify ‘our’ demands to the EU. That they’re somehow being unreasonable by not acceding to the wishes expressed by the British people and their parliament. But other countries have sovereignty too. We could vote to have free cheese from France, all of Germany’s bratwurst and Portugal’s virgin daughters, but it wouldn’t be anti-democratic for them to say ‘no’. We can’t just dictate a deal on our own terms. When Gove said we’d hold all the cards when we left, everybody knew that was nonsense, even at the time... right?

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:46 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

Politically it was brilliant. Really.

From a policy perspective, not so much.

You can still make a strong case for leaving the EU in an alternative reality in which we have a workable plan. But we don’t, we never did and that is why we’re knackered.

Absolutely true - the various Leave campaign's scattergun approach to selling the virtues of leaving the EU, based on whatever the Facebook algorithm told them people wanted to hear, has left them with a rather pyrrhic victory, in that everyone who "won" feels that they won something different - most of which can't be delivered in the pesky real world, which we are now rather abruptly running into.

I think you're analysis is spot-on - we are well and truly knackered; and if this was a quest for the sovereignty of parliament and 'taking back control' - it will be interesting to see how Boris Johnson's doomed plan to prorogue parliament and squat in no10 regardless of the results of any VoNC actually plays out. Well - as interesting as a tanking economy, food shortages, lack of medical supplies and mass job losses can be.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:07 pm  

Reading all the comments about the EU makes me wonder how we managed before it was thought of.