Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Sat Dec 14, 2019 6:26 pm  

At the moment Brexit hasn't happened, so we haven't seen any of the negative consequences that will happen. People can still say "it's all project fear". A lot of people voted Leave out of frustration with the status quo and think that Brexit is going to make things better rather than worse.

The reality that Boris will have to deal with is that Brexit is going to create a lot of negative consequences and a lot of tough decisions and trade-offs that will leave some groups unhappy. When those realities hit people, and Brexit is no longer a hypothetical situation which the 'establishment' is denying the democratic will of the people for, the terms of political debate will completely change.

Businesses will face all sorts of higher costs, especially if they export or import anything from the EU or are involved in a supply chain with firms who do. Restriction on migration will create hiring shortages and drive up wages. Remember - as the Tories like to keep telling us - we're at close to full employment and have been for a while. There isn't a huge pool of unemployed workers in the UK with the skills needed to fill these jobs. Higher costs will lead to higher prices for consumers.

Boris and his allies have spent 3 years denying the idea of 'project fear' and insisting that we have a 'great future round the corner' outside the EU. They can't backtrack now if negative economic effects happen and blame Brexit. The size of Boris' majority also removes any opportunity to blame Parliament / 'the establishment'. The Conservative government will face full accountability.

Some of those newly elected Conservative MPs in northern areas are going to face some difficult conversations with their constituents particularly if they have spend the election campaign knocking doors insisting that Labour has abandoned them and the Conservatives are the ones listening to the working class. The way the Tory party operates with its MPs is with tightly controlled 'lines to take' and so when they get angry northerners coming to their surgeries complaining about problems with their hospital they will get told, we've put record investment in to the NHS, 30,000 new nurses and we've got Brexit done etc etc whatever, and the people just won't hack it.

Also at the first sign of things going wrong after Brexit, Boris will have to deal with Farage reappearing on the airwaves criticising him as a sell out. Expect an early battle to be over access to fishing rights. The EU are going to drive a hard bargain with the UK over this if Boris wants to get this deal concluded by the end of transition, and with his large majority Boris can probably just concede on it like he did over the border down the Irish Sea and cut off the DUP. Those angry fishing communities will be one of the first groups to say they were betrayed over Brexit (farmers probably will be second) and Farage will position himself as their champion and start to lay in to Boris.

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Sat Dec 14, 2019 6:41 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

At the moment Brexit hasn't happened, so we haven't seen any of the negative consequences that will happen. People can still say "it's all project fear".

Not true though - we've flat lined economically at a time when the rest of the world was enjoying relative prosperity. We've sunk billions into quantitative easing, thousands of the best paying jobs in the country have already been moved to the future EU and I can speak from personal experience that the collapse of the pound has been a direct factor in some businesses going to the wall and thousands losing their jobs.

And this is just the phony war part.

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:32 pm  

The Ghost of '99 wrote:

Not true though - we've flat lined economically at a time when the rest of the world was enjoying relative prosperity. We've sunk billions into quantitative easing, thousands of the best paying jobs in the country have already been moved to the future EU and I can speak from personal experience that the collapse of the pound has been a direct factor in some businesses going to the wall and thousands losing their jobs.

And this is just the phony war part.

Ah but the explanation for that was due to 'uncertainty' and used as an argument for getting Brexit done.

Now Boris is going to get Brexit done, we can all surely expect the shackles to come off, and Boris can unleash the great potential of the UK economy...

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:42 pm  

I look forward to the nonexistent borders for Ireland because he wanted anyone who had extra paperwork to ring him. I wonder how that will go. He won with such a majority that anything that goes wrong he cannot blame on others but he will try of course.

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:41 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

The Conservative government will face full accountability.

They will. They now own this mess, 100%. But you know who will be to blame if it all goes wrong, don't you? "Labour left the country in a right mess after the 2008 global financial crash, we couldn't afford to do Brexit properly." I can already picture the comment sections of the Daily Mail and Express.

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:33 pm  

Sir Kevin Sinfield wrote:

Alexander De Pfeffel Johnson

Wassup JeaBron? Logged in using the wrong ID?

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:13 pm  

Johnson won and I hope for the good of the country he improves things for EVERYONE because his majority is such that anything that doesn’t he and the conservatives own. I and many others will be back to tell you we told you so because sadly he and those around him are even more hard right in ideology.

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Mon Dec 16, 2019 12:11 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

The Conservative Government does have tremendous power now, and they need a renewed agenda. Johnson ran against the memory of Cameron and May, as well as (though obviously not as much as) the prospect of Corbyn, but that doesn’t mean he won’t quickly be tainted by their legacy if things don’t go well. Also, he’s going to lose one of his biggest electoral assets in Corbyn.

The Brexit exit is done, it’s hardness agreed and just awaiting ratification. ‘Canada’ with a border in the Irish Sea.

Now, it’s ‘just’ the horse-trading of the free-trade deal. Certain industries (e.g. financial services) and interests will be prioritised, and others (e.g. almost anything else, potentially, given Johnson’s mercurial nature), inevitably, will share the fate of the DUP. As Mr Ghost points out, the unity of the EU position will be more under more pressure than during the exit negotiations. Then it was fairly simple to agree to let us choose from the existing range of statuses for non-members. They’ll have their own internal horse-trading to do for this stage, so where they have been frustrated with our slowness to this point, that may flip moving forwards. It’s likely that to keep his promise to end the transition period at the end of 2020, Johnson have to accept WTO terms, or accept a rushed deal with more concessions. Or go back on his promise - can you imagine?!

Interesting post - Labour wont learn and with the power of the NEC in the hands of hard left Momentum gang it is very likely they will elect a leader in the guise of Corbyn/McDonald - they are already lining up lemon-face. Labour leadership are in complete denial - Corbyn is delusional he thought Labour won the argument and it was on Brexit that did for them!!

I think Boris has breathing space as long negotiations are progressing and he is transparent with that progress. He is in a strong position he can leave without a deal and there is very little that can be done about it and the EU know that - a bit like the EU you can't drive a wedge through the resolve of the UK as you could before.

What will be interesting is to see if Labour support Boris' deal - have they learned any lessons? Will the leading leadership contenders vote with the deal?

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Mon Dec 16, 2019 12:16 pm  

If Labour are having to win back the kind of people who are saying this on national TV, I'm afraid there is no hope...

"Look around you, shops are shutting, businesses are closing, the full place is falling down, so I voted for change, that's why I voted Conservative"

Why can't these people put 2 and 2 together???

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Mon Dec 16, 2019 1:18 pm  

King Street Cat wrote:

If Labour are having to win back the kind of people who are saying this on national TV, I'm afraid there is no hope...

"Look around you, shops are shutting, businesses are closing, the full place is falling down, so I voted for change, that's why I voted Conservative"

Why can't these people put 2 and 2 together???

It's definitely not because they're stupid