[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:01 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

So let's get away from the notion that a border triggers mass killing - that's a deflection.

I posted this on the old thread but it deserves repetition.

Someone who used to help conduct checks on Irish border crossings in his youth told me this.

Firstly you need (at a minimum) 2 serving members of the police, then you need a 4 man 'brick' of soldiers (at a minimum) to protect these police. Times that by two because if you have police and army personnel from one country on one side of the border, they'll more than likely be replicated by Garda and Irish Army on the other.

It takes between 10 and 20 minutes to check a vehicle for contraband and sort out customs and excise, check the identity (of everyone) in the vehicle... and these people will not be best pleased. Check for illegal immigrants. Check documentation regarding goods. Check for hidden compartments containing contraband/people... queues form, big queues and there are over 200 public roads and a heck of a lot more 'hidden' tracks the provos and INLA used for smuggling... mainly diesel.

Why do you need armed men at all?, I hear you asking. Well these border checkpoints/customs points will be deeply unpopular and a spark to tinder to dissident republicans who have been itching for an excuse to dig up the Armalites and Semtex. Border checks imposed by a power they don't recognise at a border they don't recognise will provide it. Boris' numberplate recognition devices will last about 10 minutes.

Then, after half a dozen border police have been shot and a few posts and or personnel have been blown to smithereens, politicians will poke holes in the air and the PBI (Poor Bloody Infantry) will be sent in to provide a deterrent to naughtiness - or 'a target rich environment' for the gunmen.

The locals, who have been moving back and forth freely since the GFA won’t really appreciate you stopping them travelling through a border that a substantial amount don't recognise it and you're going to have your work cut out getting these people onside.

There is bound to be some form of 'atrocity/accident' as a nervous 18 year old 'Tom' blows away a family as perhaps a women late for a doctor's appointment drives through a checkpoint... and Belfast and Derry go up in flames again, more troops are sent in... a few weeks later a bomb goes off in Manchester/London... Birmingham

And the loving madness starts off all over again... just because some extreme Thatcherite Tories want a 'Singapore of the North'.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:03 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Regarding the £10 billion net that we contribute to the EU, do you not think that there have been annual benefits to heavily offset this figure, possibly wipe it out completely.
Business is built on stability (although we havent been too stable - or strong - since the referendum and IF we do manage to achieve some cheaper goods from elsewhere (post Brexit), we risk having additional duty applied to certain manufactured goods, should we try to sell items, incorporating these goods, back into the EU.
There COULD be some benefits if these items were for domestic consumption or used as components in manufactured goods sold outside the EU.

For manufacturing, there are huge concerns regarding export (post Brexit). Apart from the uncertainty, any additional costs, either as direct raw material increases or additional cost in moving goods would be extremely damaging to their prosperity.

We are still all relying on hope to prosper beyond our life in the EU and it still remains the biggest gamble for the UK economy in the last 100 years.

A bigger gamble than two world wars - come on let's get real here

Business is built on growth and enterprise - if you stand still you are going backwards - to grow business needs to find new markets and new ways of doing business. Not being part of the EU hasn't negatively impacted American companies such as Apple who don't seem to struggle getting product manufactured in the Far East into Europe. Perhaps its just their enterprise that enables them to prosper rather than where they are based.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:09 pm  

Bullseye wrote:

I posted this on the old thread but it deserves repetition.

Someone who used to help conduct checks on Irish border crossings in his youth told me this.

Firstly you need (at a minimum) 2 serving members of the police, then you need a 4 man 'brick' of soldiers (at a minimum) to protect these police. Times that by two because if you have police and army personnel from one country on one side of the border, they'll more than likely be replicated by Garda and Irish Army on the other.

It takes between 10 and 20 minutes to check a vehicle for contraband and sort out customs and excise, check the identity (of everyone) in the vehicle... and these people will not be best pleased. Check for illegal immigrants. Check documentation regarding goods. Check for hidden compartments containing contraband/people... queues form, big queues and there are over 200 public roads and a heck of a lot more 'hidden' tracks the provos and INLA used for smuggling... mainly diesel.

Why do you need armed men at all?, I hear you asking. Well these border checkpoints/customs points will be deeply unpopular and a spark to tinder to dissident republicans who have been itching for an excuse to dig up the Armalites and Semtex. Border checks imposed by a power they don't recognise at a border they don't recognise will provide it. Boris' numberplate recognition devices will last about 10 minutes.

Then, after half a dozen border police have been shot and a few posts and or personnel have been blown to smithereens, politicians will poke holes in the air and the PBI (Poor Bloody Infantry) will be sent in to provide a deterrent to naughtiness - or 'a target rich environment' for the gunmen.

The locals, who have been moving back and forth freely since the GFA won’t really appreciate you stopping them travelling through a border that a substantial amount don't recognise it and you're going to have your work cut out getting these people onside.

There is bound to be some form of 'atrocity/accident' as a nervous 18 year old 'Tom' blows away a family as perhaps a women late for a doctor's appointment drives through a checkpoint... and Belfast and Derry go up in flames again, more troops are sent in... a few weeks later a bomb goes off in Manchester/London... Birmingham

And the loving madness starts off all over again... just because some extreme Thatcherite Tories want a 'Singapore of the North'.

Jackanory - Anyone doing business in Ireland is subject to paramilitary activity now - having a border isn't going to change that. Just because they have a border doesn't mean they are going to stop one and all on the off chance they might be carrying a bit of Charlie - let's have an adult discussion here

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:18 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

A bigger gamble than two world wars - come on let's get real here

Business is built on growth and enterprise - if you stand still you are going backwards - to grow business needs to find new markets and new ways of doing business. Not being part of the EU hasn't negatively impacted American companies such as Apple who don't seem to struggle getting product manufactured in the Far East into Europe. Perhaps its just their enterprise that enables them to prosper rather than where they are based.

Ok smart guy but, we didn't have too much choice in the World Wars.

I do love how you totally ignore the trade that currently takes place, which whilst it may not be the mega brand that is Apple, it's far more important to the UK economy.
Of course,we all await with interest to see what Mercedes and BMW do with their EU produced cars, which they will still be looking to hawk in the UK, although these are premium priced motors anyway and some may "enjoy" having to pay more for the "exclusive" car on their drive.

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:23 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Jackanory - Anyone doing business in Ireland is subject to paramilitary activity now - having a border isn't going to change that. Just because they have a border doesn't mean they are going to stop one and all on the off chance they might be carrying a bit of Charlie - let's have an adult discussion here

Utter cobblers.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:55 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Jackanory - Anyone doing business in Ireland is subject to paramilitary activity now - having a border isn't going to change that. Just because they have a border doesn't mean they are going to stop one and all on the off chance they might be carrying a bit of Charlie - let's have an adult discussion here

WHAT

Every product that is traded outside of a "free trade agreement" is liable to some level of customs check.
Of course much of this is done on "trust" but, if there is a difference in duty/tax etc, the Irish border will become THE go to place for smuggling product in and out of the EU. It has very little to do with arms and drugs, although this may become more prevalent, post Brexit and more to do with pound notes to the Exchequer.
I thought that you were a little more savvy with this kind of stuff ??

Having valid documents usually prevents any physical checks on goods but, if tariffs in either direction between the UK and the EU are substantially different, there would need to be a higher level of scrutiny.

This stuff goes on all the time with products arriving in the UK, although Joe public never really sees any of this.

Certain countries have their own inspectors, who may wish to witness the loading of containers etc, which is still common place in some of the African countries.

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:56 am  

Any kind of hard border will attract dissident republicans attention simply because they would see it as imposed by the UK government and therefore a fair target. As soon as that happens then the whole thing escalates. Dissident republicans want an escalation and this would provide the catalyst. Dissident republican terrorism is in the top three terrorist risks that the security services deal with along with Islamist groups and right wing groups. They haven’t gone away.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:16 am  

Every single load of animals arriving in NI from mainland GB is already has to undergo inspection & health checks. So the principle has already been established. Some meat products from outside the EU also have to undergo checks when arriving in NI.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:22 am  

Bullseye wrote: Any kind of hard border will attract dissident republicans attention simply because they would see it as imposed by the UK government and therefore a fair target. As soon as that happens then the whole thing escalates. Dissident republicans want an escalation and this would provide the catalyst. Dissident republican terrorism is in the top three terrorist risks that the security services deal with along with Islamist groups and right wing groups. They haven’t gone away. You are correct; any physical structure demarcing the border will be viewed as a sign of British imperialism by some republicans. An interesting alternative view; https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/09/04/if-the-troubles-return-after-brexit-it-wont-just-be-because-of-the-irish-border-issue/

Bullseye wrote: Any kind of hard border will attract dissident republicans attention simply because they would see it as imposed by the UK government and therefore a fair target. As soon as that happens then the whole thing escalates. Dissident republicans want an escalation and this would provide the catalyst. Dissident republican terrorism is in the top three terrorist risks that the security services deal with along with Islamist groups and right wing groups. They haven’t gone away. You are correct; any physical structure demarcing the border will be viewed as a sign of British imperialism by some republicans. An interesting alternative view; https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/09/04/if-the-troubles-return-after-brexit-it-wont-just-be-because-of-the-irish-border-issue/

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:41 am  

Brexit will soon be a minor problem for the EU. The Italian banking system is ready to pop, plus the Italians have told the EU that they will not be subject to interference from Brussels in setting a budget. Germany having crushed the Greeks might find the Italians a different proposition. Read a copy of the Irish times last week apparently fifty per cent of Irish beef is exported to the uk. If no deal is done wto tariffs are charged which is fifty percent, obviously the Irish farmers are extremely concerned to say the least.