[Mild Rover]

Re: Wizened old socialists : Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:09 pm  

Zoo Zoo Boom wrote:

What I am saying is if we don't get back to normal deaths from other illnesses will dwarf that of Covid - we have 5m people waiting for elective surgery - how many of these will die because we are protecting the NHS from Covid? So yes there will be more deaths if we delay - not of Covid but deaths from Covid are so small - zero the other day surely we need to focus elsewhere?

There’s a balance to be struck and the vaccination programme has changed things dramatically. However, if we get a third wave and healthcare delivery gets overstretched again, that won’t help reduce the waiting list for non-urgent surgery.

Re: Wizened old socialists : Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:43 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

There’s a balance to be struck and the vaccination programme has changed things dramatically. However, if we get a third wave and healthcare delivery gets overstretched again, that won’t help reduce the waiting list for non-urgent surgery.

I would agree but given the vast majority of deaths 85% were in the over 70s and these have virtually all been vaccinated we are dealing with a much smaller propensity to require hospital treatment. Looking at the hospital numbers they are still decreasing and even in Bolton the epicentre of the Delta variant they didn't see an increase in hospital admissions and those that did go in were younger and recovered much quicker.

The chances of the NHS getting overwhelmed again are remote and we need to be cautious about a lot more things than just COVID - why are we not cautious about cancer patients missing treatment etc.

We don't open up many businesses go bust and unemployment grows - we not only have reduced tax incomes but higher SS out flows

This cannot be a one item decision.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Wizened old socialists : Mon Jun 07, 2021 2:17 pm  

Zoo Zoo Boom wrote:

This cannot be a one item decision.

I completely agree.

[Durham Giant]

Re: Wizened old socialists : Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:46 am  

Once we have a pretty full vaccination level in the UK then there is a very difficult decision which the Government has to make which it has not done so for the last year.

After the UK is vaccinated and secure the biggest threat is a new variation which is unlikely to develop spontaneously in a short period of time in the UK so the risk is likely to be imported . This will be the case as long as vaccinations are delayed in the rest of the world.

In this situation should the UK ban international travel , all holidays etc and have really strict controls on people coming in ala NZ and Australia.

If there is a variation that develops which is vaccine avoidant (quite likely based on the science) it could mean that the vaccination programme becomes pointless

That way it would allow the UK economy to stay open and carry on . No lockdowns etc

This would be in my view more beneficial even though it would mean airlines and Holiday companies go to the wall.

What do others think ?

Re: Wizened old socialists : Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:06 am  

Durham Giant wrote:

Once we have a pretty full vaccination level in the UK then there is a very difficult decision which the Government has to make which it has not done so for the last year.

After the UK is vaccinated and secure the biggest threat is a new variation which is unlikely to develop spontaneously in a short period of time in the UK so the risk is likely to be imported . This will be the case as long as vaccinations are delayed in the rest of the world.

In this situation should the UK ban international travel , all holidays etc and have really strict controls on people coming in ala NZ and Australia.

If there is a variation that develops which is vaccine avoidant (quite likely based on the science) it could mean that the vaccination programme becomes pointless

That way it would allow the UK economy to stay open and carry on . No lockdowns etc

This would be in my view more beneficial even though it would mean airlines and Holiday companies go to the wall.

What do others think ?

Restrictions on international travel have to stay in place.
We all want a decent holiday but, until there is more suppression of the virus across the globe, the more likely it is that we import more and more variations of the virus.
It staggers me that there are still 10's of 1000's of people moving in and out of the country and the lack of "control" at some airports is just laughable - where people from from green, amber and red list destinations can all mix in the arrival areas.

How the hell, knowing what we know, was the Indian variant able to enter the UK and then spread. Just who has been able to arrive in the UK and then spread the virus. Utterly ridiculous.

It does seem that until we get a proper grip on International travel, we will keep going round and round and round in the same circle.

Re: Wizened old socialists : Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:28 am  

Not surprisingly I don't agree - either the vaccines work or they don't. Everywhere in Europe from July you can travel freely as long as you have had two jabs. What do we know that the likes of Germany, France, Italy Spain don't know?

The chances of a vaccine busting variant are miniscule - even in India this variant is now slowed down significantly in a country where vaccination is nowhere near at the levels we have.

To close the borders for ever because that is effectively what the last two posters are saying will impact commerce in this country in a permanent way for a virus that has killed 0.2% of the population many of whom would have died anyway - this is madness.

The idea of a zero Covid world is pie in the sky - we have to live with it in a normal fashion as we have done with other virus outbreaks e.g. Spanish Flu etc.

Re: Wizened old socialists : Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:48 pm  

Zoo Zoo Boom wrote:

Not surprisingly I don't agree - either the vaccines work or they don't. Everywhere in Europe from July you can travel freely as long as you have had two jabs. What do we know that the likes of Germany, France, Italy Spain don't know?

The chances of a vaccine busting variant are miniscule - even in India this variant is now slowed down significantly in a country where vaccination is nowhere near at the levels we have.

To close the borders for ever because that is effectively what the last two posters are saying will impact commerce in this country in a permanent way for a virus that has killed 0.2% of the population many of whom would have died anyway - this is madness.

The idea of a zero Covid world is pie in the sky - we have to live with it in a normal fashion as we have done with other virus outbreaks e.g. Spanish Flu etc.

And yet, Wigan v Catalan this week is postponed, due to covid in the Wigan camp -

I love your optimism on vaccine busting variant's, somewhat premature, I think.

Re: Wizened old socialists : Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:00 pm  

Every vaccine has an efficiency rate, and the efficiency of the covid vaccines is very high, however it seems each new variant is more resistant to the vaccine than the last, especially if you've only had 1 dose. The likelihood of further variants is increased the more it spreads, so we still need to maintain a level of caution, especially when talking about international travel, as most of the world is probably at the same point we were a few months ago with infections accelerating.

I highly doubt we'll see an increase in restrictions or another lockdown, but I'd also be very surprised if we reopen fully on 21st June also. I don't think we'll reopen until the schools and universities break up, at least.

[Durham Giant]

Re: Wizened old socialists : Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:34 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

And yet, Wigan v Catalan this week is postponed, due to covid in the Wigan camp -

I love your optimism on vaccine busting variant's, somewhat premature, I think.

Wigan. V Huddersfield apparently Giants camp has 5 positive tests.. apparently they all caught it playing Wakey a couple of weeks ago although I find that surprising as they seemed incapable of catching anything that day !1

Re: Wizened old socialists : Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:57 pm  

Durham Giant wrote:

Wigan. V Huddersfield apparently Giants camp has 5 positive tests.. apparently they all caught it playing Wakey a couple of weeks ago although I find that surprising as they seemed incapable of catching anything that day !1

Yeah, must have got it off each other on the bus coming over, as they never got near the Trinity players

On a serious note, the should be concern that players are becoming infected again. This had all gone very quiet until the relaxing of rules 3/4 weeks ago and we're on the brink of "open season" on the 21st June.
Thankfully serious infections are still very low. Mind you, they were 12 months or so ago and then the brown stuff hit the fan.