Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:18 am  

wotsupcas wrote:

There you go with the insults again. Why do you in the remain camp think you are so intellectually superior to brexiteers? . Where did I say I want a hard brexit. I want to leave with a GOOD deal. However just about the only thing May said in this whole fiasco that I agreed with is that no deal is better than the turd she tried to serve up to us. I happen to think that the threat of no deal will achieve that but I admit that time is now very pressing but at least the EU know we are serious, unlike with May.

You say that the EU know that "we are serious" but, Boris & co still havent come up with an alternative to the Irish Backstop and they've had 3 years to think of something and tbf to the EU, what do we actually expect them to do ?
Leave the Irish border open but, somehow prevent the movement of people and goods accross the border or just turn a blind eye to anything that moves in Ireland.
If you know of a viable plan, perhaps you could share it with us and perhaps copy in Boris nd Junker with your answer.
Even if "no deal" is the answer, all that "we" have come up with is that "we" wont erect a hard border but, with no actual solution, absolutely disgraceful.
Some of these issues should have been thought about (and solved) pre referendum, although Cameron never thought that there would be a leave result

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:23 am  

wotsupcas wrote:

There you go with the insults again. Why do you in the remain camp think you are so intellectually superior to brexiteers? . Where did I say I want a hard brexit. I want to leave with a GOOD deal. However just about the only thing May said in this whole fiasco that I agreed with is that no deal is better than the turd she tried to serve up to us. I happen to think that the threat of no deal will achieve that but I admit that time is now very pressing but at least the EU know we are serious, unlike with May.

Please explain what a GOOD deal is. And what are you going to get that will make your life better?

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:18 am  

tigertot wrote:

Please explain what a GOOD deal is. And what are you going to get that will make your life better?

Something very similar to the common market. You know, the thing we actually voted for in 1975.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:32 am  

The Ghost of '99 wrote:

I'm genuinely a bit embarrassed for you that you're so unfamiliar with the benefits system and so lacking in empathy to find out or even care, that you think this is how it works.

Honestly, step out into reality once in a while. At the moment you're coming across like a parody of a Tory voter.

Come on then how does it work and how do you qualify for benefits - is it based on your income?

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:04 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Oh dear, missing the point again
First of all, why the hell should we be doing anything that will his OURSELVES negatively ??
Secondly, the UK is a HUGE net importer, especially when you remove our invisible exports from the ledger.
Yes, we could use British bacon and lamb etc but, get real man.

Regarding benefits etc.
I'm not sure that any of us want to rely on benefits and those whop work full time and still receive them is a modern day scandal, effectively subsidising businesses for getting labour on the cheap.

Inflation will be the major factor, which will hit those in work, pensioners and those on benefits.

If you've been abroad since the referendum, you will have noticed that the exchange rate with the Euro is almost equal 1 pound = 1 euro (almost) and 1 pound = 1 dollar 22 cents

3 years ago (at the time of the referendum those rates were roughly 1.3 euros to the pound and 1.45 dollars to the pound. Therefore increasing the cost of everything that we buy based on those currencies, which will include China and India etc who tend to trade with the UK based on USD value.

This doesn't move inflation in a direct line. However you will notice everything from Mars Bars, Crisps etc all shrinking in size, which allows the manufacturers to hide some of the inflation.
However the very fact that the Pound has lost 30% of its value against the Euro, tells you just how strong the UK actually is.
WE keep being told that unemployment is down and employment is at record levels but, growth rates BEFORE any cliff edge economic shock, shot only 3 countries in the G20 (the top 20 nations in the world) with growth rates worse than ours and although there may be some small comfort in knowing that Germany isn't much better placed, our last quarter showed negative growth and it's vey likely that when the cliff edge is reached, the UK will actually be in recession and yet, certain politicians seem happy for us to take a further hit.

Boris is making public spending pledges on a daily basis, which may soften the overall effect of the slowdown but, where do you actually think the UK will be in 5 years time ? Better off, worse off or about the same.
Personally, I'm certain that in real terms (taking account of inflation) we will be worse off but who actually cares ?

I agree with your point in respect of benefits and the corporate businesses - if you put the minimum wage up to say £15/hour what is going to happen? One of two things - companies that cannot pass on these increases or reduce other costs to compensate will go to the wall and unemployment will increase or they will simply pass on these increases and inflation will rise. It is a balance that any government has to achieve for wider benefit of society.

I don't see rampant inflation despite the collapse of the pound against other major currencies - why is that?

Forecasted UK growth is 1-2% compound until 2023 whilst this is not China numbers it is significantly outside of recession.

In Maynard Keynes model recession happens approximately every 10 years - its a fact that's why politicians accept it its the norm.

What is happening here is the likes of you cannot accept that some people don't think like you and more people didn't think like you than did when it came to the referendum. All this stuff about no deal is not about no deal it is about keeping the UK in the EU because in their eyes and yours they/you know best and anybody who doesn't agree should be disregarded. We can't leave without a deal yet we can't get a deal that is acceptable what does that tell you - the MPs will make it impossible for us to leave.

Guarantee if we have another referendum - the options wont be leave regardless of deal i.e. no deal and remain. It will set up with 3 options two leave options and remain and the two leave options will not be added together. We will keep voting until remain wins.

Nobody actually knows what will happen when/if we leave everything is conjecture - it could actually be worse that suggested?

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:11 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I agree with your point in respect of benefits and the corporate businesses - if you put the minimum wage up to say £15/hour what is going to happen? One of two things - companies that cannot pass on these increases or reduce other costs to compensate will go to the wall and unemployment will increase or they will simply pass on these increases and inflation will rise. It is a balance that any government has to achieve for wider benefit of society.

I don't see rampant inflation despite the collapse of the pound against other major currencies - why is that?

Forecasted UK growth is 1-2% compound until 2023 whilst this is not China numbers it is significantly outside of recession.

In Maynard Keynes model recession happens approximately every 10 years - its a fact that's why politicians accept it its the norm.

What is happening here is the likes of you cannot accept that some people don't think like you and more people didn't think like you than did when it came to the referendum. All this stuff about no deal is not about no deal it is about keeping the UK in the EU because in their eyes and yours they/you know best and anybody who doesn't agree should be disregarded. We can't leave without a deal yet we can't get a deal that is acceptable what does that tell you - the MPs will make it impossible for us to leave.

Guarantee if we have another referendum - the options wont be leave regardless of deal i.e. no deal and remain. It will set up with 3 options two leave options and remain and the two leave options will not be added together. We will keep voting until remain wins.

Nobody actually knows what will happen when/if we leave everything is conjecture - it could actually be worse that suggested?

I'll take it as red that there is no solution for the Irish border, which does make a "deal" or "no deal extremely difficult

Growth forecasts were scaled back to between 1.2 and 1.5% for this year. However, this was based on the UK getting a deal and they will be further revised down should a deal not be forthcoming. Also worth noting that we've already had one negative quarter and the current quarter isn't exactly looking buoyant, therefore quite likely that we are already in recession, which will be confirmed when the quarterly figures become available.
0.5% growth in Q1, followed by -0.2% in Q2 is bloody awful and large numbers of businesses are currently "sitting on their hands" to await the outcome of Brexit.

One area where I do agree with you is on a second referendum.

Unless there has been a huge swing in either direction, another referendum will just prolong the whole thing and what would be the question on the ballet paper ?

As far as rampant inflation is concerned.
There is certainly inflationary pressure in the system, largely caused by raw material increases and the weak value of Sterling. However, this is offset by the general state of the economy, with companies preferring to absorb just as much of the cost as possible, rather than pass on the change to the consumer but, this isn't sustainable.

Never mind. Maybe it's time to adopt the "brace" position and deal with what comes but, there are a lot of people in for one hell of a shock.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:11 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Remembering that the MP's have all been on "Summer Recess" and that there are very few sitting days anyway AND with such an important issue to solve, it does set a dangerous precedent.
Having said that, for everyone who is opposed to the idea, there is probably someone who is fairly happy that Boris has done this.
Ultimately, it just shows what an utter facking mess that Mrs May made of her deal.

One worrying aspect of Boris's actions was the smile that it brought to Arlene Fosters face and again, remembering what could happen in N.Ireland, especially around the border towns, we should all be just a little concerned.

Is Brexit worth sacrificing relative peace in N. Ireland - I dont think so

Battered wives and husbands won't be happy. The Domestic Abuse Bill 2019 is likely to fall away along with other bills that have not been given Royal ascent.

Boris might be happy about that

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:49 am  

wotsupcas wrote:

Something very similar to the common market. You know, the thing we actually voted for in 1975.

Tbf, that sort of thing is for the future relationship negotiations. It is also fair to say that the backstop issue does muddy those waters, I admit.

They’ll be trickier than the leaving part, although if we have a more united Government with a reasonable working majority by then, that will help. Based on BJ’s smirking schtick about our ‘friends and partners’ in Europe, I suggest Frientrance for the sequel.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:07 am  

Pumpetypump wrote:

We need to circumvent democratic institutions and conventions in order to get our democracy back. What part of democracy don't you remoaners understand?

I guess both sides can point to a betrayal of democracy now, representative and direct for remainers and brexiteers, respectively. And that, in part, points to a fundamental problem with a democracy based on yes-no. Not that a visual analogue scale or similar would work, as everybody would just game it and we’d be back to square one.

I’d never abandon by credibility by being a stooge for someone like Johnson ( Amber, Matt, Michael, Nicky and Sajid), and in principle i’m absolutely against suspending parliament in these circumstances and for this purpose. But even I have to admit that a parliament that can only say no (as demonstrated by the spectacular failure of the indicative votes) is a problem, and maybe the issue does have to be forced.

I’ve often accused the Brexit side of not having a clear and settled plan, but that is just as true of those uniting around opposition to the poop or bust no deal path Johnson wants to tread. If they stop him, they won’t be able to offer a way forward, except for another vote of some kind. And there’s a hole in our democracy, dear Liza, dear Liza.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:10 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

I'll take it as red that there is no solution for the Irish border, which does make a "deal" or "no deal extremely difficult

Growth forecasts were scaled back to between 1.2 and 1.5% for this year. However, this was based on the UK getting a deal and they will be further revised down should a deal not be forthcoming. Also worth noting that we've already had one negative quarter and the current quarter isn't exactly looking buoyant, therefore quite likely that we are already in recession, which will be confirmed when the quarterly figures become available.
0.5% growth in Q1, followed by -0.2% in Q2 is bloody awful and large numbers of businesses are currently "sitting on their hands" to await the outcome of Brexit.

One area where I do agree with you is on a second referendum.

Unless there has been a huge swing in either direction, another referendum will just prolong the whole thing and what would be the question on the ballet paper ?

As far as rampant inflation is concerned.
There is certainly inflationary pressure in the system, largely caused by raw material increases and the weak value of Sterling. However, this is offset by the general state of the economy, with companies preferring to absorb just as much of the cost as possible, rather than pass on the change to the consumer but, this isn't sustainable.

Never mind. Maybe it's time to adopt the "brace" position and deal with what comes but, there are a lot of people in for one hell of a shock.

I have mentioned numerous times on here how it that goods from SE Asia the US, China can move seamlessly across the EU border but all of sudden this will be an issue with these same goods crossing the same the only difference is we are no longer in the EU - surely the technology that allows Apple to bring its computers from SE Asia without delay at the ports can applied once we have left the EU?