Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:07 am  

Whatever the result, whoever wants to win the election next May is going to have to appease the Scots, soothe the English & battle against a surge in support for UKIP.

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:03 am  

LeagueDweeb wrote:

Whatever the result, whoever wants to win the election next May is going to have to appease the Scots, soothe the English & battle against a surge in support for UKIP.

well not exactly, if the vote goes to the Yes party today then there's a good chance that there won't be a UK general election next year and even if there is then the soon-to-be English parliament isn't going to need to appease the Scots over anything.

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:29 am  

JerryChicken wrote:

well not exactly, if the vote goes to the Yes party today then there's a good chance that there won't be a UK general election next year and even if there is then the soon-to-be English parliament isn't going to need to appease the Scots over anything.

We have a fixed term Parliament. That cannot be changed. The Scots will have to be appeased. A yes vote will mean negotiations to make it as clean a settlement as possible. In the event of a No, enough further devolution to shoot the independence fox.

There won't be an English Parliament. If the Scots do vote Yes, there is still a UK left. If they do vote Yes, the 59 Scottish constituencies represented in Westminster should be erased from the UK's political map prior to the 2015 General Election.

If they vote No & more powers are devolved to Holyrood, the vested interests of the Westminster elite, particularly those parties who will lose most seats, will deflect the West Lothian question through devolving some powers to the regions.

40 less Labour MP's last time would have meant a Conservative government. Going forward, this is a huge problem for the Labour party, which is why, apart from his recent visit, Cameron has been happy for them to do all the work for the Better Together campaign.

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:39 am  

LeagueDweeb wrote:

We have a fixed term Parliament. That cannot be changed.

Yes it can

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:44 am  

WIZEB wrote:

Think I'll tune into the Jon Snow hosted live debate at 10pm on C4 tonight.
Michelle Mone is a panellist so it'll make one of our Sin-Binners happy.
Guardian 2010 profile quote on Mone is fairly amusing -: ''she grew up a Scottish Labour voting Protestant and is now a Conservative voting Catholic who David Cameron invited to come and address his cabinet.''

Whatever it takes for MM to get on. A complete slunt.

Interesting to see Andy Murray add his weight to the YES vote. Will that finally convince the strawberries and cream brigade that he IS Scottish after all?

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:09 am  

cod'ead wrote:

Yes it can

In the same way it was changed to fixed term parliaments after the last election you mean?

[DaveO]

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:09 am  

LeagueDweeb wrote:

40 less Labour MP's last time would have meant a Conservative government. Going forward, this is a huge problem for the Labour party, which is why, apart from his recent visit, Cameron has been happy for them to do all the work for the Better Together campaign.

It rarely has been in the past. I think it is only one, possibly two past Labour victories have relied on the Scottish MP's.

It has also worked the other way. Scotland returned 22 Tory MP's in 1979 and in Major v Kinnock election it returned 11 when Major won with a majority of 21. Had Scotland been as solid Labour as you imply Major would have lost that election. Scotland until recently has never been a shoe in for Labour.

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:17 am  

WIZEB wrote:

They have one serving MP returned to Westminster from the 2010 General Election!

The difference in this referendum is that each vote counts equally.

May 2010 general election in Scotland

Conservatives - 412,855 votes = 1 seat
Lib Dems - 465,471 votes = 11 seats
SNP - 491,386 votes = 6 seats
Labour -1,035,528 votes = 41 seats

Hardly fair but there you go. So Salmond's SNP only represents about half of those that voted for the present government yet he continues to go on about independence guaranteeing a change in direction.

If this referendum had only included the above voters then the NOs would have won hands down. However this time there are another 1.9 million who have registered to vote including many school kids aged 16 and over and many adults who are not political and could be voting just emotionally with the heart not the head which is why this could be on a knife edge. Because the pollsters have no similar history to compare they are as much in the dark about the result as the rest of us.

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:19 am  

Isn't it fairly simple in the case of a Yes vote? There's a 2015 UK General Election as normal. Then whenever Scotland actually becomes independent the Scottish MP's no longer are MP's as they have no constituency. So they are removed from a Parliament and you're left with what remains.

Might be tricky if it's a Labour government elected in 2015 who's majority is reliant on Scottish MP's but the parliament can still be dissolved and another election called if necessary.

[DaveO]

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:23 am  

cod'ead wrote: Any Scots who think Salmond is a socialist are in for a very rude awakening. He views TTIP as a "massive opportunity for Scotland", all they need do is look at how he bent over while Donald Trump dry-bummed him. He's already been called out over his lies on safeguarding the NHS. Wee Eck is an obnoxious little upstart but I can't blame Scots for swallowing his rhetoric, we've got plenty South of the border who are falling for Farage's bollox too There is a very good article here that offers an opinion on what will happen in Scotland if there is a yes vote. Most people voting Yes have no idea what it will bring them because the Yes campaign have kept it so vague. It is basically a "jam tomorrow" message. The alliance of disparate groups for Yes often put forward as a positive thing by the Yes side tells you there are going to be some VERY disillusioned Yes voters very quickly. As the article I linked to points out you have the Socialist Workers Party (who want a socialist utopia) in bed with Business for Scotland (who will want everything the Tories in the UK want) and the Greens (anti-fossil fuel) alongside the SNP (who want to extract as much oil as possible). Yet the message has been, vote Yes, ditch the Tories and voila a new socially responsible Scottish state will emerge. This is just not going to happen. There is going to be same political fighting in Scotland as there is in every other western country. Some nationalists will argue that is fine because whatever the outcome it will have been Scotland not Westminster that decided it but that is not what has been promised.

cod'ead wrote: Any Scots who think Salmond is a socialist are in for a very rude awakening. He views TTIP as a "massive opportunity for Scotland", all they need do is look at how he bent over while Donald Trump dry-bummed him. He's already been called out over his lies on safeguarding the NHS. Wee Eck is an obnoxious little upstart but I can't blame Scots for swallowing his rhetoric, we've got plenty South of the border who are falling for Farage's bollox too There is a very good article here that offers an opinion on what will happen in Scotland if there is a yes vote. Most people voting Yes have no idea what it will bring them because the Yes campaign have kept it so vague. It is basically a "jam tomorrow" message. The alliance of disparate groups for Yes often put forward as a positive thing by the Yes side tells you there are going to be some VERY disillusioned Yes voters very quickly. As the article I linked to points out you have the Socialist Workers Party (who want a socialist utopia) in bed with Business for Scotland (who will want everything the Tories in the UK want) and the Greens (anti-fossil fuel) alongside the SNP (who want to extract as much oil as possible). Yet the message has been, vote Yes, ditch the Tories and voila a new socially responsible Scottish state will emerge. This is just not going to happen. There is going to be same political fighting in Scotland as there is in every other western country. Some nationalists will argue that is fine because whatever the outcome it will have been Scotland not Westminster that decided it but that is not what has been promised.