Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 31, 2020 8:16 am  

Ovavoo wrote:

https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2018/07/03/what-bbc-newsnight-forgot-to-tell-you-about-the-guest-who-called-for-an-end-to-the-nhs/

This Kate Andrews?

The very same.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 31, 2020 8:21 am  

sally cinnamon wrote:

If you're searching for this, look for "The Hollow Men" lecture. It is well worth watching. Cummings has some interesting ideas on government and I agree with some of his critique on the civil service and Ministers.

It is also quite amusing to watch his relationship with the Conservative party. Generally the whole route to advancement in Tory circles involves deference, sucking up, going out and defending the indefensible on behalf of someone else. Cummings doesn't bother with any of that, doesn't do any of the party events, he's not even a member, and he's got a job that everybody in CCHQ covets. He derides the Cabinet and he derides suck ups, and he will find it hilarious that they are all now making themselves look stupid to cover up for him. He doesn't give a poop about their reputations or if the Conservative party suffers lasting damage from stuff he does. He is focused on himself and his projects. At some point he'll leave No.10 and move in to a private sector project and he won't care if the Tories lose the next election. It's not his problem. A few Tory MPs seem to have realised this - he uses the Conservative party (and now the government) for his purposes and doesn't care what damage he causes, and really they should ditch him.

I was thinking about what would have happened if Corbyn had been PM and Seumus Milne had done this. You would have had some of the same issues. They have that 'solidarity' thing on the left. Corbyn would not have been bullied by the press into sacking Milne. Burgon, Gardiner would be making fools of themselves on TV making excuses for him.

The big difference would have been, that if Milne thought his ongoing presence would jeopardise the 'Corbyn project', he would have resigned. He could have stuck around in the background for a while, waited for the moment later on when Corbyn could bring him back in to a different role. In politics, sackings/resignations are rarely permanent, Cummings knows that, so do Priti Patel, Gavin Williamson etc. Milne would have gone because he'd have prized 'the project' above himself. Cummings only values himself, and he will have got his kicks out of 'getting one over' the media, and if that comes at political cost to Boris and his government, he won't lose sleep over it.

Your last paragraph is very interesting - nobody did more harm to the Corbyn project than Milne - his incompetence during the last election led to biggest defeat for Labour and the Corbyn project since before WW2 - surely anyone with a shred of support for the project would have resigned immediately after the result was confirmed? He only went when Starmer was appointed - if Long-Bailey had won it would be a reasonable assumption he would be still in place. His upbringing is very similar to Cummings - his inbuilt arrogance brought out of privilege would be OK if he was actually any good at his job - at least Cummings has tangible evidence of his effectiveness.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 31, 2020 8:29 am  

There will be very few people in this country that haven't broken one rule or another - I fail to see all the fuss. Jenrick on the other hand is not only a sackable offence its a criminal matter IMO.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 31, 2020 9:50 am  

It seems like our Government are now only listening to science when it suits, or the ones that they agree with
After Boris "gagged" the 2 experts at his last briefing, it seems that there is some discord between some of the experts and our government.

There is also massive disagreement on the safety of opening all of the schools and it certainly wont happen by Monday.

Have we reached the point where "following the science" doesn't fit with the Government's agenda.

The dreaded "R" rate is already close to 1 and is likely to go exceed 1 within the next couple or three weeks and then what ?

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 31, 2020 9:57 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

There will be very few people in this country that haven't broken one rule or another - I fail to see all the fuss. Jenrick on the other hand is not only a sackable offence its a criminal matter IMO.

Breaking the lockdown rules doesn't matter a jot, if you are one of the Governments chosen few, we all know that now and consequently, the lockdown "rules" are in tatters.
The test and trace is also screwed, due the Government failing to understand and implement a system that allows the various mobile devices to "talk" to one another, effectively omitting half of the mobile network.

I'm sure that they will be along soon to tell us that "X" million phones are compatible but, they have made a fundamental error (again).

25,000 tracers, most of whom are currently twiddling their thumbs, wont be enough.

More overstating capacity and mis leading the public - business as usual for this lot.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 31, 2020 10:38 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Breaking the lockdown rules doesn't matter a jot, if you are one of the Governments chosen few, we all know that now and consequently, the lockdown "rules" are in tatters.
The test and trace is also screwed, due the Government failing to understand and implement a system that allows the various mobile devices to "talk" to one another, effectively omitting half of the mobile network.

I'm sure that they will be along soon to tell us that "X" million phones are compatible but, they have made a fundamental error (again).

25,000 tracers, most of whom are currently twiddling their thumbs, wont be enough.

More overstating capacity and mis leading the public - business as usual for this lot.

Amazing how the test and trace came up to distract everyone from the Cummings incident, 5 days early (another good news story) yet as you say lots of stories (dont believe them though as it's only anecdotal) of systems not being ready, the tracers sat alone in chat rooms for hours with very little training having been given etc.
And as for the BBC, it's amazing how they are portrayed as Lefties/liberal/remainers etc by the tories/right/ brexiteers but they do not mention a single thing about the reports that favour them etc.
The BBC are dammed if they do, damned if they dont. But I for o e prefer them in this world rather the Trumps and the right wanting to discredit them so noone reports

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 31, 2020 8:52 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Breaking the lockdown rules doesn't matter a jot, if you are one of the Governments chosen few, we all know that now and consequently, the lockdown "rules" are in tatters.
The test and trace is also screwed, due the Government failing to understand and implement a system that allows the various mobile devices to "talk" to one another, effectively omitting half of the mobile network.

I'm sure that they will be along soon to tell us that "X" million phones are compatible but, they have made a fundamental error (again).

25,000 tracers, most of whom are currently twiddling their thumbs, wont be enough.

More overstating capacity and mis leading the public - business as usual for this lot.

Yet again - the app is only part of the test and trace system. Most of the test and trace system is via traditional methods, which have been used for decades and are proven to work.

While I'm here I'd like to pay particular thanks to the beach/park goers over the weekend, and Black Lives Matter today, for doing their bit to extend the length of this pandemic. Good job folks. Edit - just seen the state of Bournemouth beach today, the mind boggles. Though I have to wonder why the councils aren't closing beaches bearing in mind public toilets are closed and people are doing their business on the beach and in the streets. Lovely.

As for the timing of lockdown, my view is it's at least fortnight too early. However, remember the government is receiving advice not only from epidemiologists, but from many other scientists in different fields, covering subjects such as mental health, and also taking the economy into consideration. Fact is, if lockdown continues for too long the economy is devastated. The government cannot prop things up forever and the gradual release has to take months. We have probably until the end of September to get through this before the damage becomes massive. If we see new peaks and new lockdown measures between now and then, all the problems so far will see like a holiday (which is what a lot of people think it is).

The enforcement of the lockdown should have been a damn sight tougher too. I'd like to have seen a zero tolerance approach and the army on the streets as a deterrent to allow the police more freedom to attend where needed. Problem is, we've built such a spoilt and entitled brattish society it just wouldn't be accepted - and I've heard many scientists across political spectrum admit this. It's clear that relying on the 'great' British public isn't enough.

However, all the modelling has a degree of fckwittery built in. Let's hope it's enough or we're back to square one in a few weeks and the economy is in REAL trouble.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:11 am  

The Army on the streets that would go down well especially in Northern Ireland. The problem wasn’t the severity of the lockdown (which everybody agrees was adhered to far better than expected) but the timing which was too late and we knows whose fault that was. It was not only too late but despite warnings in a 2016 review we were not prepared and concentrated on one thing NHS beds to the detriment of everything else.
I admit you do try to blame others when in fact you need to look no further than your friends in government who have successfully managed to make a mess of nearly every stage including the test and trace which appears to be another disaster. The problem is that the app does not work and they needed a diversion from Cummings so let’s go with what we can I.e. loosening lockdown despite still being at level 4, the application of track and trace despite being nowhere near ready and let’s bring back professional sport.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:25 am  

Scarlet Pimpernell wrote:

The Army on the streets that would go down well especially in Northern Ireland. The problem wasn’t the severity of the lockdown (which everybody agrees was adhered to far better than expected) but the timing which was too late and we knows whose fault that was. It was not only too late but despite warnings in a 2016 review we were not prepared and concentrated on one thing NHS beds to the detriment of everything else.
I admit you do try to blame others when in fact you need to look no further than your friends in government who have successfully managed to make a mess of nearly every stage including the test and trace which appears to be another disaster. The problem is that the app does not work and they needed a diversion from Cummings so let’s go with what we can I.e. loosening lockdown despite still being at level 4, the application of track and trace despite being nowhere near ready and let’s bring back professional sport.

You're absolutely right about the Government exaggerating and lying about EVERY aspect of this.
From the false claims on PPE, the 100,000 tests a day by the end of April, 200,000 Tests a day by the end of May, "world beating" test and trace and we wont mention Cummings, who is now consigned to his own small cupboard at Troy Central.
They wouldn't know the truth if it dropped on their heads.
I do agree with Cronus on the behaviour of the public, many of whom seem happy to abandon any form of social distancing, just for a day out.
Clearly they have no idea how this virus can and will spread

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:35 am  

Cronus wrote:

Yet again - the app is only part of the test and trace system. Most of the test and trace system is via traditional methods, which have been used for decades and are proven to work.

While I'm here I'd like to pay particular thanks to the beach/park goers over the weekend, and Black Lives Matter today, for doing their bit to extend the length of this pandemic. Good job folks. Edit - just seen the state of Bournemouth beach today, the mind boggles. Though I have to wonder why the councils aren't closing beaches bearing in mind public toilets are closed and people are doing their business on the beach and in the streets. Lovely.

As for the timing of lockdown, my view is it's at least fortnight too early. However, remember the government is receiving advice not only from epidemiologists, but from many other scientists in different fields, covering subjects such as mental health, and also taking the economy into consideration. Fact is, if lockdown continues for too long the economy is devastated. The government cannot prop things up forever and the gradual release has to take months. We have probably until the end of September to get through this before the damage becomes massive. If we see new peaks and new lockdown measures between now and then, all the problems so far will see like a holiday (which is what a lot of people think it is).

The enforcement of the lockdown should have been a damn sight tougher too. I'd like to have seen a zero tolerance approach and the army on the streets as a deterrent to allow the police more freedom to attend where needed. Problem is, we've built such a spoilt and entitled brattish society it just wouldn't be accepted - and I've heard many scientists across political spectrum admit this. It's clear that relying on the 'great' British public isn't enough.

However, all the modelling has a degree of fckwittery built in. Let's hope it's enough or we're back to square one in a few weeks and the economy is in REAL trouble.

The App was indeed only part of the test and trace system.

However it WAS supposed to be the main starting point for the tracers to work from, sadly, the app is dead in the water so, we now have 25,000 tracers, who are supposed to keep tabs on the whole population.
I agree that this is how things have been done traditionally for small outbreaks of certain diseases but, covid19 is on a whole different scale and without the app, "we" will be fighting a losing battle.

I absolutely agree that the lockdown and government subsidy can not carry on and that a way has to be found to get things moving a little faster and I agree that, with a substantial second spike, things could become very difficult indeed.

Strong leadership and clear guidelines would certainly have been more effective and avoiding "good news" just to cover the actions of a rogue adviser would have been rather more sensible.

Johnson is not the man for this job.
He is and only ever was a good time manager and we're some way from good times.
At least it's taken the heat off Brexit, which is heading for no deal.