cod'ead wrote:
How do you work that one out?
Only twice since WW2 (1964, 1974) would Labour have failed to gain an overall majority.
Now compare that to the fact that in 1955 the tories held the majority of Scottish seats and now they are reduced to one.
Forgive me if I am wrong, because I am hungover and this is back of a fag packet maths (not that I smoke), but my understanding is that:
Parliament has 650 seats. Take away the 72 in Scotland and it has 578.
The Tories have 304 Parliamentary seats. Take away the one in Scotland, and even the one they are about to lose to UKIP, and they still have 302.
Labour has 257 seats. Take away their Scottish MPs, and they are down to 217.
Current opinion polls give Labour a majority of around 20-30 next year. Take away their Scottish seats, and we are into hung parliament territory, or even a small Tory majority. Also, I think there will be a swing towards the Tories as we approach the GE, when people are reminded what a cluster French Connection UK the last Labour government was and that much of this parliament has simply been spent fighting fires that were started by Labour.
And, if the Tories have any sense, the first thing they will do on a majority is sort out the electoral boundaries, which currently favour Labour. That will be worth another 2-3 percentage points come future general elections.
Either way, Labour will be out of the picture for a couple of elections, possibly much longer. And you may, perhaps, be surprised to learn I take no pleasure from it. We need a balanced democracy with strong opposition parties.
It would not surprise me if UKIP overtakes the Lib Dems as the 3rd party in the next few years. And they will take votes from both the Tories and Labour.
I honestly believe the biggest threat facing the UK at this very moment is not ISIS, Russia or lunatics preaching jihad above a kebab shop in Luton, but Scottish nationalists.
It is also interesting to note that a Scotsman running around waving the Saltire and saying nasty things about the English is acceptable. Yet people moaning about the EU and immigration are called xenophobic or even racist.