Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:14 am  

GUBRATS wrote:

Maybe it's the same ones that predicted the dreaded ' Millenuim Bug ' ? , now that was a scam and a half

A lot of people caught the millennium bug and they're still suffering from the side effects; extreme paranoia and irrational fear.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:22 pm  

zero chance of us leaving the EU.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:34 pm  

The bookies certainly think we are staying.

1/10 for a remain vote currently.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:08 pm  

Mr. Zucchini Head wrote:

The bookies certainly think we are staying.

1/10 for a remain vote currently.

With the polls only just putting remain ahead, there are some crazy odds. Last time I looked. The odds on us leaving were 10/1. Well worth putting a tenner on it.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:32 pm  

LifeLongHKRFan wrote:

With the polls only just putting remain ahead, there are some crazy odds. Last time I looked. The odds on us leaving were 10/1. Well worth putting a tenner on it.

Lot of xenophobia and racism about then wouldn't you say ?

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:53 pm  

Kelvin's Ferret wrote:

I'm not interested in "the cost of eroding British culture". I am interested in cost benefit analysis that makes serious attempts to cover all the costs of economic migration. That includes the opportunity costs of excluding people already here from rival goods and services, with particular attention to how immigration affects those things. Can't get a GP appointment for two weeks? That's a cost. Cannot get you child into your local school? That's a cost. It's facile to argue that the UK taxpayer should simply cough up more to rapidly scale those services, especially when we have no control over the demand, the "real world" doesn't work like that. Net migration at over 300k a year is massive, especially when it's part of a long term trend. It's not a case of just making things go a bit further, it's more like having to provide incremental infrastructure for a city the size of Nottingham each year, that kind of investment has a different level of cost to absorbing lower levels of immigration.

I believe HM Treasury did start a cost benefit analysis of the UK's EU membership when Ken Clarke was Chancellor of the Exchequer but he canned it when he found out. Studies are rarely free from any bias, but something like that is likely to be a far more serious policy tool than the stream of "studies" put out by groups on all sides for propaganda purposes (this is generally true of most "research" by pressure groups and special interest organisations, regardless of whether we approve or disapprove of their ends). Besides my other point, which never attracts any attempt at challenge, is that economic migration is economic migration and should be treated like economic migration. I'm not against it, I'm against treating it as some sort of philanthropic foreign aid programme.

Btw I don't really care where they come from as long as they leave any authoritarian, medieval or degenerate cultural practices behind e.g. FGM, honour killings, cousin marriage, violent homophobia/misogyny/anti-Semitism.

So what you're saying is that you're willing to dismiss any type of scientific study, no matter what the source, because you think you're right anyway?

I live somewhere with very few immigrants BTW and I can't get a GP appointment, the reason being that the service is massively underfunded and that people live longer than they used to and thus require more medical care in later life. In fact if there were less immigrants I would struggle even more because pretty much all the GPs are immigrants. The idea that we need to "create more infrastructure" to allow immigrants to then come and live here is a myth, the children of immigrants are just as likely to provide public services as the children of non-immigrants.

I don't think too many EU immigrants are engaging in FGM, honour killings or cousin marriage BTW.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:21 pm  

Wire Yed wrote:

Government is designed to look after the best interests of the economy, i'd love to say of the people but they usually couldn't give a monkeys about us. Just having this option has seemingly wiped value off shares as the uncertainty has spooked investors.
Having the referendum has created uncertainty and that seems to be something governments look to avoid at all costs if they can, i doubt in my lifetime this 'option' will ever be on the cards again.

The centralised body create laws, more worringly large parts of that centralised body are unelected and therefore unremoveable, what's to say they can't be swayed by big business and lobbying groups like the sham banana republic that is the USA. Only with the added option of zero pressure of giving a fk what the people think as their jobs are set in stone regardless, they don't have to worry about re-election and just crack on.

I guess my biggest fear is i'm a cynic, i don't trust politicians, the examples of deceit are too wide spread and far too common for my liking so i like the fact they have to be at least seen to be representing us and the fear of them being removed is something i need to feel i have.

I'm not a batshit crazy fully commited little englander BREXITer, i'd prefer to be in Europe but not in this system, i think this system is corrupt or at least extremely easy to corrupt. The examples of wastage, and unnecessary bureacracy are something that grinds with me.

We are the 5th biggest players in the world, the 3rd biggest player in the union and ideally i would prefer to be IN, in a completely root and branch reforming of the the whole system.

But my options are IN or OUT, and based on such simplicity i can only see being out as a safer option.
I'm not interested if my house value goes down, my wages go down, i have less to go on holiday with, finance is a small sacrifice, a far smaller sacrifice than those who have lost their lives from the English Civil war, to the Peterloo Massacre to the Pankhurst Womans Sufferagette movement and all those that fought wars to retain that right.

I want to be part of a democracy, one that is open and accountable, yes the UK isn't perfect either but i'm open to mass debate on reform of this institution also.

Spot on. The entire EU has become a bafflingly undemocratic and twisted version of the original ideal.

The economy is not one rigid corporation facing disaster. It consists of hundreds of thousands of businesses who will adapt in the event of a dip...as they do through bust & boom, market crashes, etc, etc. Short term pain for long term gain. The economy will recover. That does not concern me.

I made my mind up not by listening to any of our politicians, but by listening to those unelected members of the EU Commission. The staggering arrogance and the disdainful manner in which they referred to the UK spoke volumes. Their oft-repeated mantra of 'no reform...ever' merely cemented my decision. We will never 'reform the EU from within', regardless of Remain claims.

In addition to Wire Yed's comments I would add that an open border policy is just plain bonkers, which ever way you look at it. If you don't think our infrastructure is being strangled by the rapid growth in population caused by immigration, frankly you're an idiot. It's not racism or xenophobia, it's a numbers game: too many, too quickly. We don't have the schools, hospitals etc to cope with such rapid influx - and how can we plan and build more when we don't know how many are coming? Bonkers.

Immigration brings benefits. Open immigration is just stupid. Yes they pay in - so what? I'm more concerned about why my child can't get a place in a school with large numbers of Eastern European kids.

If we stay we're stuck with it. A million more people coming to these shores every few years. Who, in their right mind, thinks for a moment the UK can cope with that?

And when more and more countries join the EU? Ha! Deary me.

I was optimistic of the Out vote winning only a week ago but now suspect too many people will show too little courage and/or have been taken in by the scare stories. Plus, the awful events in Barnsley have done more for the Remain campaign than Cameron or Corbyn ever could.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:30 pm  

Not often me and Cronus agree on anything , but that and Wireyeds summary are pretty much on the nail , I too believe that recent events and fear will win the day unfortunately

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:31 pm  

headhunter wrote:

The idea that we need to "create more infrastructure" to allow immigrants to then come and live here is a myth, the children of immigrants are just as likely to provide public services as the children of non-immigrants.

You don't think 333,000 immigrants a year is placing a squeeze on public services? A million every 3 years?

My own personal experience and speaking to friends and family in the NHS (nurses, a theatre manager, a couple of midwives), education (several teachers and a school secretary) and other public services, as well as friends struggling to get their kids in schools with large numbers of immigrant kids told me all I needed to know. Too many, too quickly. It needs to slow. Not stop...just slow.

We're a small but already densely populated country with an infrastructure designed to expand alongside normal population growth rates. This massive influx has squeezed the hell out of it and it's not like we can catch up - this things take many, many years to plan and build. And we don't know how many will come from one year to the next, so how can we plan?

Give your blinkered head a wobble.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:37 pm  

Cronus wrote:

You don't think 333,000 immigrants a year is placing a squeeze on public services? A million every 3 years?

My own personal experience and speaking to friends and family in the NHS (nurses, a theatre manager, a couple of midwives), education (several teachers and a school secretary) and other public services, as well as friends struggling to get their kids in schools with large numbers of immigrant kids told me all I needed to know. Too many, too quickly. It needs to slow. Not stop...just slow.

We're a small but already densely populated country with an infrastructure designed to expand alongside normal population growth rates. This massive influx has squeezed the hell out of it and it's not like we can catch up - this things take many, many years to plan and build. And we don't know how many will come from one year to the next, so how can we plan?

Give your blinkered head a wobble.

Blaming immigrants for the strain on services is just false. It's a total misattribution. If your 'friends and family' are blaming immigrants then frankly they are wrong. The NHS would virtually grind to a halt without immigrants. School places are a concern but again, the problems are largely caused because young British people don't want to be teachers or doctors. If we want to improve things then maybe the Tory government should invest more and make them more attractive professions to enter instead of routinely savaging the whole process (ask the junior doctors). And if immigrants are an issue after that then maybe we should tackle non-EU immigration, which we don't. I also don't think the children of British parents are any more 'worthy' or deserving of school places than the children of immigrants and it's pretty backwards to suggest they are.

What people (especially older people) fail to acknowledge is that in 2016 we live in a connected world and people are going to come here, and go elsewhere, and the population is going to continue to grow exponentially regardless of what happens. Constantly blaming immigrants isn't a solution, it's an easy way out for inane, stupid politicians which they know will always gain them sympathy because of the innate xenophobic nature of humans.