Re: coronavirus and sport ? : Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:53 am  

We have to ramp up testing - if only to see if it has a positive impact, we don't know whether it will or not.

There has to come a point where we just have to remove the lockdown and see what happens - again nobody knows.

This is one of the most densely populated countries in the world the impact of the virus will be magnified by the density of population surely?

Re: coronavirus and sport ? : Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:54 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

There has to come a point where we just have to remove the lockdown and see what happens - again nobody knows.

Yes they do know - lots more people will die; and if our figures weren't bad enough, wait until the deaths at home and in care homes are included - it will probably double. Although the Govt is doing its level best to avoid the total figure being made public, because they know it will be horrific. Maybe they could get Priti Patel to announce it - I'm sure she could smirk her way through something suitably nonsensical, to deflect any criticism.

Re: coronavirus and sport ? : Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:17 am  

bren2k wrote:

Yes they do know - lots more people will die; and if our figures weren't bad enough, wait until the deaths at home and in care homes are included - it will probably double. Although the Govt is doing its level best to avoid the total figure being made public, because they know it will be horrific. Maybe they could get Priti Patel to announce it - I'm sure she could smirk her way through something suitably nonsensical, to deflect any criticism.

Apart from the USA, which seems to have badly failed it's population, especially in New York, the UK has amongst the highest deaths per capita of population in the world and as you rightly say, either deliberately or otherwise, it has massively undercooked the figures for those that have died with the virus.

It seems ludicrous that care home figures are not included but maybe the view from our ruling party is that "they would have died anyway".

We all looked on at Italy and thought that the virus was out of control and maybe it was but, for all of the flannel, lies and "following the science", the UK has come out at the top of the pile for deaths.
At some point, even the lying deceiving government will need to be held accountable - we know they will blame the "experts", who they have conveniently hidden behind from day one.
However, it is for government to decide policy, lead by its advisers and despite Boris nearly getting struck down, there should be no hiding from what has happened.

And then came the recession...………………………..

Re: coronavirus and sport ? : Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:01 am  

bren2k wrote:

Yes they do know - lots more people will die; and if our figures weren't bad enough, wait until the deaths at home and in care homes are included - it will probably double. Although the Govt is doing its level best to avoid the total figure being made public, because they know it will be horrific. Maybe they could get Priti Patel to announce it - I'm sure she could smirk her way through something suitably nonsensical, to deflect any criticism.

We know the vast majority of deaths c90% are coming from older people with underlying conditions - so surely these are the most vulnerable and should be kept in lockdown? Nobody is reporting total deaths why - because its easier and quicker to report those in hospital.

Surely this will ease your stress with many of your customers no longer requiring your service?

Re: coronavirus and sport ? : Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:25 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

We know the vast majority of deaths c90% are coming from older people with underlying conditions - so surely these are the most vulnerable and should be kept in lockdown? Nobody is reporting total deaths why - because its easier and quicker to report those in hospital.

Surely this will ease your stress with many of your customers no longer requiring your service?

Wow - you are truly horrifying.

Let's hope your Mum or Nan isn't one of my 'customers,' who's death can be deemed acceptable because it makes my life easier.

Re: coronavirus and sport ? : Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:43 am  

bren2k wrote: Yes they do know - lots more people will die; and if our figures weren't bad enough, wait until the deaths at home and in care homes are included - it will probably double. Although the Govt is doing its level best to avoid the total figure being made public, because they know it will be horrific. Maybe they could get Priti Patel to announce it - I'm sure she could smirk her way through something suitably nonsensical, to deflect any criticism. The figures that are published each day are an underestimate, but I don't think this is a government cover up, it's to do with the different speeds at which information comes in to the bodies that report them - and also different reporting bodies between England/Wales, Scotland and NI. The daily figures that are announced come from hospitals and report the number of deaths where the patient tested positive for covid. People who died outside of hospitals or who died without having had access to a test aren't included. The ONS figures are a couple of weeks behind, but they include all deaths (including outside hospital) where the certifying doctor has put covid as a cause of death. But probably the most accurate guide, will be to look at the figures on total deaths from all causes, and assume that in the absence of covid the number of total deaths by week would have been the same as it would in previous years (ie you always get higher weekly deaths in the winter months when the flu season is on) and the excess deaths will have been related to covid (it will include things like people whose conditions were aggravated by anxiety etc not just having the virus itself). The ONS data here is a couple of weeks behind (up to week ending 3rd April) but you can see in Figure 1 here how the weekly death count was more or less in line with the 5 year average up till the end of week 12 of the year (week ending 20 Mar) and then it starts going up in week 13 (ending 27 Mar) and there's a large spike in week 14 (ending 3 Apr). In that week there were 6,082 excess deaths above the 5 year average for the equivalent week of the year. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 3april2020 Also reported here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825

bren2k wrote: Yes they do know - lots more people will die; and if our figures weren't bad enough, wait until the deaths at home and in care homes are included - it will probably double. Although the Govt is doing its level best to avoid the total figure being made public, because they know it will be horrific. Maybe they could get Priti Patel to announce it - I'm sure she could smirk her way through something suitably nonsensical, to deflect any criticism. The figures that are published each day are an underestimate, but I don't think this is a government cover up, it's to do with the different speeds at which information comes in to the bodies that report them - and also different reporting bodies between England/Wales, Scotland and NI. The daily figures that are announced come from hospitals and report the number of deaths where the patient tested positive for covid. People who died outside of hospitals or who died without having had access to a test aren't included. The ONS figures are a couple of weeks behind, but they include all deaths (including outside hospital) where the certifying doctor has put covid as a cause of death. But probably the most accurate guide, will be to look at the figures on total deaths from all causes, and assume that in the absence of covid the number of total deaths by week would have been the same as it would in previous years (ie you always get higher weekly deaths in the winter months when the flu season is on) and the excess deaths will have been related to covid (it will include things like people whose conditions were aggravated by anxiety etc not just having the virus itself). The ONS data here is a couple of weeks behind (up to week ending 3rd April) but you can see in Figure 1 here how the weekly death count was more or less in line with the 5 year average up till the end of week 12 of the year (week ending 20 Mar) and then it starts going up in week 13 (ending 27 Mar) and there's a large spike in week 14 (ending 3 Apr). In that week there were 6,082 excess deaths above the 5 year average for the equivalent week of the year. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 3april2020 Also reported here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825

Re: coronavirus and sport ? : Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:53 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Apart from the USA, which seems to have badly failed it's population, especially in New York, the UK has amongst the highest deaths per capita of population in the world and as you rightly say, either deliberately or otherwise, it has massively undercooked the figures for those that have died with the virus.

It seems ludicrous that care home figures are not included but maybe the view from our ruling party is that "they would have died anyway".

We all looked on at Italy and thought that the virus was out of control and maybe it was but, for all of the flannel, lies and "following the science", the UK has come out at the top of the pile for deaths.
At some point, even the lying deceiving government will need to be held accountable - we know they will blame the "experts", who they have conveniently hidden behind from day one.
However, it is for government to decide policy, lead by its advisers and despite Boris nearly getting struck down, there should be no hiding from what has happened.

And then came the recession...………………………..

Deaths per 100,000 of population as of yesterday:

- Spain: 38.00
- Belgium: 34.17
- Italy: 33.86
- France: 22.37
- United Kingdom: 17.07
- Netherlands: 16.44
- US: 7.19

...and the rest, bearing in mind the majority of the world are still in earlier stages of infection, and I think we can confidently ignore the numbers coming out of China, Iran and others. China especially.

You're not paying attention again. I note you ignored my replies to you in the PM thread - seems to me if anyone is ignoring facts and numbers, it's you. You've gone into boring rant mode.

The lag in social care reporting is not 'ludicrous' - it's been widely reported and openly discussed in almost every daily briefing. I assume you aren't watching these? Several times they've talked about how reporting of deaths away from hospitals is subject to a delay due to how & when GPs register deaths and how & when the ONS collate and report the data, which isn't as quick as a hospital reporting their daily deaths centrally. Yes of course it will inflate the figures, those of us following things closely understand this and therefore feel no need to rant or attribute it to conspiracy.

Within the numbers we then have the question over cause of death - dying with CV19 and dying of CV19 are two different things. And given the age and vulnerabilities of most of the fatalities, it's likely some would have died anyway. There are many question marks over the accuracy and different reporting criteria of the numbers globally.

Your post is just ridiculous. Full of unfounded maybes, accusations, assumptions and tinpot conspiracy. Even when you try to offer facts, you are wrong.

Re: coronavirus and sport ? : Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:24 pm  

bren2k wrote:

Wow - you are truly horrifying.

Let's hope your Mum or Nan isn't one of my 'customers,' who's death can be deemed acceptable because it makes my life easier.

Don't be so touchy - one day you will accept the facts - perhaps if we isolate the vulnerable then the rest of us can carry on as normal - OBR suggests economic downturn of c35% wow - how many people will die post this virus from suicide, depression, domestic violence, addiction because either they can't work or have had their business taken from them - perhaps that's acceptable externality of this - not for me its not - perfectly healthy people being sacrificed - perhaps that is acceptable to you?

My parents are in their 80's both are fully accepting of their fate in their eyes they have had a great life and they cannot live forever.

Nobody posts more spiteful stuff than you - so get off your high moral horse - you more than anyone needs to look in the mirror.

Re: coronavirus and sport ? : Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:48 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

perhaps if we isolate the vulnerable then the rest of us can carry on as normal - OBR suggests economic downturn of c35%

Simplistic codswallop, but I expect you knew that already. You're just worried about GDP, really. Keep the illusion going that it's all about working to produce crap we don't need, so we can spend the money consuming crap we don't need.

The economy can be fixed. Who knows, our current broken form of capitalism may end up getting a good reboot. However, you can't bring people back from the dead.

Re: coronavirus and sport ? : Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:51 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Don't be so touchy - one day you will accept the facts - perhaps if we isolate the vulnerable then the rest of us can carry on as normal - OBR suggests economic downturn of c35% wow - how many people will die post this virus from suicide, depression, domestic violence, addiction because either they can't work or have had their business taken from them - perhaps that's acceptable externality of this - not for me its not - perfectly healthy people being sacrificed - perhaps that is acceptable to you?

My parents are in their 80's both are fully accepting of their fate in their eyes they have had a great life and they cannot live forever.

Nobody posts more spiteful stuff than you - so get off your high moral horse - you more than anyone needs to look in the mirror.

It's nice that your so flippant with the lives of your own family. I'm sure they're chuffed to bits.
My own parents are past the 80 mark but, I dont think they're ready for the lid going on just yet.

You do seem to place a far lower value on life than the rest of us