Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:14 pm  

tigertot wrote:

As much as I would like the latter that would be difficult to get past even the thickest Leaver. Which is why I didn't put 3 straight options.

That's fine but how would you then collate the results.


Lets say, for the sake of arguement that everyones opinion stayed the same and leave vote was roughly down the middle, we therefore have

48 % Remain
26 % Leave (hard brexit)
26% Leave (soft Brexit)

What do we do next

If we go to a second referendum, it should only be Leave with no deal (WTO terms) or leave with Customs deal.
Granted, there would be plenty of folk that dont quite understand the question but, hey ho, that's life.

Or, better still, our elected members of parliament have the same vote, which would bring the issue to a conclusion, albeit with a number of unhappy MP's and unhappy voters but, again, that's life and just to help make things simple, it should be declared a "free vote". Problem solved and let's get on with our lives.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:24 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

That's fine but how would you then collate the results.


Lets say, for the sake of arguement that everyones opinion stayed the same and leave vote was roughly down the middle, we therefore have

48 % Remain
26 % Leave (hard brexit)
26% Leave (soft Brexit)

What do we do next

But it's not round numbers is it? The Remain/Thicko vote last time wasn't 48%/52%, it was 16,141,241/17,410,742. The referendum wasn't cancelled in case there was a dead heat. The chances of it happening are minuscule.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:07 pm  

tigertot wrote:

But it's not round numbers is it? The Remain/Thicko vote last time wasn't 48%/52%, it was 16,141,241/17,410,742. The referendum wasn't cancelled in case there was a dead heat. The chances of it happening are minuscule.

The point I'm making is that, given your 3 questions, the lleave vote would be split (and whether their 52 ?? was split equally or by another way) it would mean that "remain" would have the highest percentage.


So, what then Sherlock ?

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:28 pm  

We clearly need to adopt a 'make your own adventure' approach to any second referendum. If my ballot is less than 200 pages long and I can complete it in under 3 hours, there is clearly be something wrong.

We've boxed ourselves in - all options are infeasible.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:31 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

We clearly need to adopt a 'make your own adventure' approach to any second referendum. If my ballot is less than 200 pages long and I can complete it in under 3 hours, there is clearly be something wrong.

We've boxed ourselves in - all options are infeasible.

Just take the lid off the box and maybe put Boris, Rees Mogg and Corbyn in there, oh and Mrs May, then put the lid back on

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:52 pm  

It appears to me that whatever the Government wants is quick becoming irrelevant since their red lines prevent any kind of compromise across Parliament. The hard Brexit mob prefer “no deal” or at the very least no customs union and no single market and no Irish backstop. This approach is tying the hands of Government who can’t get anything through unless the whole party and the DUP back it. The chances of them all agreeing a solution are nil. Meanwhile the Labour leadership have been trying to ride a number of different horses at the same time and options are quickly running out.

MPs from all parties however could gather enough numbers to outnumber the hard Brexit mob, government and Labour leadership and pick off members of the cabinet if they can agree a common compromise. That can come in stages via amendments. I can see MPs coalescing around a Norway option as it avoids the risks and divisions of another referendum. In my view it’s not as good as remain but it gives MPs a get out clause over calling another referendum, safeguards the economy and draws a line under the whole shambles. While the Government is unlikely to extend A50 or rule out no deal Parliament can do that. The hard Brexit mob aren’t large enough to force through no deal – it might be on the statute now but I doubt it’ll be there come 29 March.

It’ll be interesting to see if the softer Brexit members of the cabinet or Labour leadership get behind a compromise as the clock ticks.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:24 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

The point I'm making is that, given your 3 questions, the lleave vote would be split (and whether their 52 ?? was split equally or by another way) it would mean that "remain" would have the highest percentage.


So, what then Sherlock ?

If the Leave vote is 52% we leave. On what terms depends on the voting for the 2 sub-options within the option. I can't understand why it is difficult to comprehend.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:46 pm  

There is nothing out there in any polls to suggest the result would be any different this time around - the likelihood is a increase for leave due to many thinking Parliament has its own agenda i.e. remain and the vote of the people is being ignored. Even the arch remainers have to accept there was as much negative propaganda from the remain side i.e. the economy will implode, taxation will immediately need to be increased etc. The problem for remain was the public didn't believe it and that has proved to be correct.

[Pumpetypump]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:09 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

There is nothing out there in any polls to suggest the result would be any different this time around - the likelihood is a increase for leave due to many thinking Parliament has its own agenda i.e. remain and the vote of the people is being ignored. Even the arch remainers have to accept there was as much negative propaganda from the remain side i.e. the economy will implode, taxation will immediately need to be increased etc. The problem for remain was the public didn't believe it and that has proved to be correct.

I agree with what you're saying apart from every single word.

Latest polling consistently shows a lead for remaining in the EU so presumably you made that up. Seriously, 30 seconds on google will disabuse you of that notion. At no point in the run up to the referendum did remain have a lead in the polls of the magnitude they do today, so there is no evidence to suggest an increased share for the quitlings.

You've similarly wholly invented a world were the economic harm, major firms leaving the UK and job losses failed to materialise as predicted. So on that basis the remainers aren't going to "have to accept" the sort of intellectual rigor behind the "la la la I can't hear you" mentality that leads you to label sensible economic analysis as "propaganda".

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:46 pm  

The problem for remainers is that we lost.

The problem for leavers is that they won. Its leaders want to be matyred heroes for a lost cause, not actually take responsibility for the thing. That’s why they’re moving towards harder options despite May serving up the vast majority of what they wanted.