Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:23 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

There's enough MPs enthusiastic about or at least willing to accept some form of Brexit. However, the issue comes when you start to look at any particular version of Brexit. There's no majority (in parliament or the country) for no deal, or a hard negotiated Brexit or a soft negotiated Brexit. At least among leavers, I'd guess the vast majority of remainers would go for a soft negotiated brexit once no brexit was off the table, with enough moderate leavers to get it above 50%. Take out no deal and it could be close though. We need to start narrowing the options, that's obvious.

If Leave was a single unified vision, then we'd have a path to follow. But it actually reflects the disparate views of a broad and quite unusual coalition.

Whilst I agree there is no majority in Parliament for a no deal Brexit. How do you know "there is no majority in the population"? assuming your going off the 2016 referendum plus not all brexiteers would want a no deal which would possibly give you a majority. So lets assume on that basis your right we must not take it off the table, even if it's only to be used as a negotiating tool. Personally I really don't mind staying in the/a customs union, having a trade agreement, I wouldn't even be adverse to giving EU countries priority immigration, but will not except freedom of movement, EU Laws etc, don't know what category of brtexiteer that puts me in

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:41 pm  

tigertot wrote:

For those Leavers so appalled at the thought of another referendum, don't forget this scummy Tory party were voted in to power in May 2015; less than 2 years later they called another election with the sole intention of stifling any meaningful opposition. That process took just over 2 months. Not 9 months or a year. They have created this monster.

IF they hadnt called that election and shrunk their majority, what would the m"monster" look like now ?

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:42 pm  

bren2k wrote:

The whole idea of a referendum in the first place was fundamentally stupid; designed by Cameron to get the UKIP vote back into the Tory fold - but since that was the decision, it should have been done in a grown up way - and it just wasn't. Some countries have fine-tuned them to avoid the divisiveness, some have banned them altogether as an entirely unfit method to make political decisions - we did neither, and inflicted this whole binary argument on the UK, which feels like it has created wounds that will never heal.

But the genie is out of the bottle now, so the only way to proceed is to say here are the options, let the people speak - again - which is actually not in any way undemocratic; we do it with General and Local Elections all the bloody time.

Once it's done, fundamentally change our democracy - get rid of the stupid FPTP system, repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act and ban referenda from ever being used again; or better still, get rid of the whole lot and install a benign dictatorship - I'd go for David Attenborough, although given his advancing years, maybe David Gedge out of The Wedding Present.

Totally agree re Cameron, he should be shot at dawn for cowardice, he called it then once the results came out he promptly annouced his resignation, but not before he had given just about the whole of his household access to the joke that is the House of Lords.
I also agree that we have general and local elections all the time, however, once the result is given that is it not re done just because people didn't like the result which is what is happening here, SNP would be having a referendum every year if it were to be put back to the people, then staying in the EU should not be an option in my opinion, that has been decided by a referendum voted on by 80% of the population would therefore be undemocratic.
FPTP should be changed I agree. should be individual voices across the country.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:47 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

From where I am looking if you want ensure the EU has no influence whatsoever you need to leave with No Deal. Why would the EU give a deal away that gives you all the benefits of the single market without any of the obligations?

The backstop is a red herring for me - huge amounts of imports come into Europe from outside the EU many of which are part of very slick retail supply chains and they manage to reach their destinations without delay and with the correct duties being paid. All livestock that crosses the Irish border is still checked so no difference there.

Even with no deal, the EU will still influence the UK. The US and Russia and China and Saudi Arabia and so on all still influence what we do in different ways. We're not going to exist in glorious, pristine, weird isolation like an occidental North Korea. Although I am now imagining BoJo with a Kim Jong-Un hairstyle, and I should be careful not to risk giving the ERG ideas.

We're not going to get a good deal from the EU, relative to what we have at least. That's why I voted remain. But we lost - the consolation is that we're the ones that get to throw poop as it all goes m'eh or massively wrong. But I'd rather just throw a little bit of poop and have a deal than revel in complete catastrophe.

I'm really worried that, realizing that Leave is going to be a bit cack, when Leaver's hopes were initially so high, they won't accept that but instead double down and we might end up with no deal with no prep. Brexit - yes, fair enough, but let's accept that, like most things in life, it won't live up to the billing and try to at least cut our losses.

We could be a Bigger-Poorer-Norway or Canada-next-door - don't throw away that last great chance of something only a bit worse than what we had.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:53 pm  

POSTL wrote:

Whilst I agree there is no majority in Parliament for a no deal Brexit. How do you know "there is no majority in the population"? assuming your going off the 2016 referendum plus not all brexiteers would want a no deal which would possibly give you a majority. So lets assume on that basis your right we must not take it off the table, even if it's only to be used as a negotiating tool. Personally I really don't mind staying in the/a customs union, having a trade agreement, I wouldn't even be adverse to giving EU countries priority immigration, but will not except freedom of movement, EU Laws etc, don't know what category of brtexiteer that puts me in

I saw a poll putting support for a no deal Brexit at 28%, although it will depend on the other options available. It was the single most popular option, but a long way short of a majority. Second most popular was a second referendum on 24%. May's deal was the least popular, iirc.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:26 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

I saw a poll putting support for a no deal Brexit at 28%, although it will depend on the other options available. It was the single most popular option, but a long way short of a majority. Second most popular was a second referendum on 24%. May's deal was the least popular, iirc.

Oh well if a poll said then it must be true, I'm sorry mate but with all respect cum on really. However, if what you say is correct and I'm in no position to disagree as you could well be right, and I'm not really bothered either way then, why take our biggest bargaining tool off the table as with all the will in the world in reality were not going to use it. Simples .

I think Rovers have got more chance of winning the grand final than a no deal happening

Paul

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:26 pm  

POSTL wrote:

Oh well if a poll said then it must be true, I'm sorry mate but with all respect cum on really. However, if what you say is correct and I'm in no position to disagree as you could well be right, and I'm not really bothered either way then, why take our biggest bargaining tool off the table as with all the will in the world in reality were not going to use it. Simples .

I think Rovers have got more chance of winning the grand final than a no deal happening

Paul

It seems pretty unlikely more than 50% support no deal with the options still available though. It was a fringe position until quite recently. Basically until May’s deal was revealed, now I think on it.

Rovers triumphant in exchange for no deal? Now there’s a Faustian pact.

I also see May’s reward for reaching out to the Brexit wing of her party is Andrea Jenkyns saying she wants the £39 billion for existing commitments back on the table. I know Jenkyns is as Brexit as they come, but that has got to be disheartening. I’m really not sure the Conservatives are going to come through this in one piece.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:54 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

It seems pretty unlikely more than 50% support no deal with the options still available though. It was a fringe position until quite recently. Basically until May’s deal was revealed, now I think on it.

Rovers triumphant in exchange for no deal? Now there’s a Faustian pact.

I also see May’s reward for reaching out to the Brexit wing of her party is Andrea Jenkyns saying she wants the £39 billion for existing commitments back on the table. I know Jenkyns is as Brexit as they come, but that has got to be disheartening. I’m really not sure the Conservatives are going to come through this in one piece.

I honestly don't think there is a majority for a no deal and whilst I'm being honest even though I'm a committed Brexiteer, could I really rely on any of that shower in the commons at the moment to negotiate good trade deals with other countries BUT it should still be on the table in my opinion

I think the trouble with May is she's tried to please everybody and ended up pleasing nobody. I'm sure the Tories won't come through this in one piece, who the hell I vote for is beyond me as not voting for me is not an option

I suggested in an earlier post that such a monumental negotiation should have been cross party between the two main parties only (to many cooks).

Paul

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:14 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

It seems pretty unlikely more than 50% support no deal with the options still available though. It was a fringe position until quite recently. Basically until May’s deal was revealed, now I think on it.

Rovers triumphant in exchange for no deal? Now there’s a Faustian pact.

I also see May’s reward for reaching out to the Brexit wing of her party is Andrea Jenkyns saying she wants the £39 billion for existing commitments back on the table. I know Jenkyns is as Brexit as they come, but that has got to be disheartening. I’m really not sure the Conservatives are going to come through this in one piece.

The vote - if there needs to be one - should be leave no deal or remain as is - then there can be no argument as to the nature of leaving if the leavers win.

Let's see the apetite for a no deal? - if the remainers can't win on that basis then it really is time to shut up once and for all.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:44 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

The vote - if there needs to be one - should be leave no deal or remain as is - then there can be no argument as to the nature of leaving if the leavers win.

Let's see the apetite for a no deal? - if the remainers can't win on that basis then it really is time to shut up once and for all.

Remain shouldn't be on the ballot paper, that vote has been taken, and seeing as we've not left yet then its not been honoured.