Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Jan 25, 2019 3:33 pm  

POSTL wrote:

Ive just noticed that ive only got 3 reputation points on here mate, maybe I need to start giving out some hard cash to try and improve my pathetic reputation. BUT its not a bribe

I can help you with your reputation and we can call it news

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Jan 25, 2019 4:00 pm  

POSTL wrote:

ha ha ha aint we just re your last line, I'm so embarrassed

Yeah, at each step you can sort see why things happened, from Cameron calling for the referendum onwards. Even where I wasn't in favour, I could see a reason behind it. But it's all accumulated in to something just bizarre - where we're contemplating exiting with no deal and with no preparation for that, because we can't choose to do anything else. And I can see why all the different political factions are doing what they're doing it and why, and how they've almost no other choice. It's like we're trying to do a jigsaw puzzle with pieces from three different sets, based on a picture on the box of a fourth.

Sal Paradise wrote:

Completely agree re. your points about May - an unmitigated disaster as a PM. I doubt Labour would have done any better - easy to agree to stay in the single market its simply remain under a different banner.

You do wonder how much is her and how much is the situation, in fairness. Some of it is her, absolutely. But I can't imagine anybody having made a success of it. I think the way the referendum was framed gave Leave a chance to win, but also meant that it would be very difficult to do so successfully - expectations had been stretched in too many directions. Now, 2 years on, possibly the opposite is true and anything better than a terminal national meltdown will feel like a win.

The only slight advantage Labour might have had is that it matters less to most of them, and they could perhaps have been pragmatic - there are worse things than doing what is easy. But it'd have been more difficult for them in other ways, undoubtedly.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Jan 25, 2019 4:16 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

Yeah, at each step you can sort see why things happened, from Cameron calling for the referendum onwards. Even where I wasn't in favour, I could see a reason behind it. But it's all accumulated in to something just bizarre - where we're contemplating exiting with no deal and with no preparation for that, because we can't choose to do anything else. And I can see why all the different political factions are doing what they're doing it and why, and how they've almost no other choice. It's like we're trying to do a jigsaw puzzle with pieces from three different sets, based on a picture on the box of a fourth.

You do wonder how much is her and how much is the situation, in fairness. Some of it is her, absolutely. But I can't imagine anybody having made a success of it. I think the way the referendum was framed gave Leave a chance to win, but also meant that it would be very difficult to do so successfully - expectations had been stretched in too many directions. Now, 2 years on, possibly the opposite is true and anything better than a terminal national meltdown will feel like a win.

The only slight advantage Labour might have had is that it matters less to most of them, and they could perhaps have been pragmatic - there are worse things than doing what is easy. But it'd have been more difficult for them in other ways, undoubtedly.

I like your jigsaw analogy and this is going to take some serious piecing together.
It looks more and more like there cant be a soft border in Ireland if we actually leave and the warring factions just dont seem prepared to give on this issue.

Perhaps now, with the clock running so far, Mrs May is actually happy.
She either forces her deal through Parliament, as most MP's dont want a "no deal" outcome or, we crash out of the EU on WTO terms and she can toddle off into the political sunset and blame everyone else.

The one sure thing is with those tactics, we'll finally get to see just how much ground the EU will give (as no deal isn't something that they want either).

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:04 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

Yeah, at each step you can sort see why things happened, from Cameron calling for the referendum onwards. Even where I wasn't in favour, I could see a reason behind it. But it's all accumulated in to something just bizarre - where we're contemplating exiting with no deal and with no preparation for that, because we can't choose to do anything else. And I can see why all the different political factions are doing what they're doing it and why, and how they've almost no other choice. It's like we're trying to do a jigsaw puzzle with pieces from three different sets, based on a picture on the box of a fourth.

You do wonder how much is her and how much is the situation, in fairness. Some of it is her, absolutely. But I can't imagine anybody having made a success of it. I think the way the referendum was framed gave Leave a chance to win, but also meant that it would be very difficult to do so successfully - expectations had been stretched in too many directions. Now, 2 years on, possibly the opposite is true and anything better than a terminal national meltdown will feel like a win.

The only slight advantage Labour might have had is that it matters less to most of them, and they could perhaps have been pragmatic - there are worse things than doing what is easy. But it'd have been more difficult for them in other ways, undoubtedly.

I really don't think we will leave without a deal mate, both sides want a deal their doesn't seem to be an appetite for it on either side. But as I mentioned earlier its got to be in the equation that's our back stop

It's interesting that you say that in your opinion the way the referendum was framed gave leave a chance ?, even though I voted to leave I was so surprised and really proud I might add when we won the referendum.

I can't believe you also said we've not made any preparations for no deal, it was only on the news the other week that we have an agreement with another company`ny to sail from another port to eliviate the possible back log at Dover, they've got no ships mind but that's just a small detail

Paul

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:07 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

I like your jigsaw analogy and this is going to take some serious piecing together.
It looks more and more like there cant be a soft border in Ireland if we actually leave and the warring factions just dont seem prepared to give on this issue.

Perhaps now, with the clock running so far, Mrs May is actually happy.
She either forces her deal through Parliament, as most MP's dont want a "no deal" outcome or, we crash out of the EU on WTO terms and she can toddle off into the political sunset and blame everyone else.

The one sure thing is with those tactics, we'll finally get to see just how much ground the EU will give (as no deal isn't something that they want either).

If I hear that word "Crash out" one more time I'm going to scream

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:08 pm  

POSTL wrote:

I really don't think we will leave without a deal mate, both sides want a deal their doesn't seem to be an appetite for it on either side. But as I mentioned earlier its got to be in the equation that's our back stop

It's interesting that you say that in your opinion the way the referendum was framed gave leave a chance ?, even though I voted to leave I was so surprised and really proud I might add when we won the referendum.

I can't believe you also said we've not made any preparations for no deal, it was only on the news the other week that we have an agreement with another company`ny to sail from another port to eliviate the possible back log at Dover, they've got no ships mind but that's just a small detail

Paul

Why were you "proud" ?

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:56 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Why were you "proud" ?

Firstly because I was so convinced that most people even if they wanted to leave would just vote for the status quo and remain, but they didn't.

because when we joined what was the common market it was purely economics not rule makers

Hopefully we will put an end to this Freedom of movement. (my main reason)

Nothing should be higher in this country than British Law for all its faults (in my opinion)

Since Brexit I have heard on many occasions the some people say they voted to remain because they feel more European than British, which for me is very sad. Even though surprise surprise they will still be European.

I'm really not worried about staying in the single market or the customs union, but we cannot have those without Freedom of movement.

Put an end to ploughing millions and millions into the EU

One thing I never gave any thought to if I'm honest was the Irish border.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:10 pm  

Just a little extra to the above I still don't believe we will actually leave, I will be amazed if we do, Ireland and I think Denmark before us voted in a referendum to leave the EU, however, at the last minute the EU came up with a better deal and they decided in a second referendum to remain.

Paul

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:12 pm  

POSTL wrote:

It's interesting that you say that in your opinion the way the referendum was framed gave leave a chance ?, even though I voted to leave I was so surprised and really proud I might add when we won the referendum.

I feel like remain was clearly characterised, whereas Leave was more fuzzily defined. Leave voters were individually were clear on what they were voting for, but it varied person to person. That flexibility was a huge electoral asset, but it was slippery too (see also, Tony Blair’s electoral appeal). People on all sides do mostly want a deal, but those imagined deals vary substantially - the desire is there but it is for different things; EU vs UK, Leave vs Remain, and Leave vs Leave of different stripes.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:25 pm  

POSTL wrote:

Just a little extra to the above I still don't believe we will actually leave, I will be amazed if we do, Ireland and I think Denmark before us voted in a referendum to leave the EU, however, at the last minute the EU came up with a better deal and they decided in a second referendum to remain.

Paul

They weren’t votes to leave or remain, but to ratify (or not) treaties. The Danes initially rejected Maastricht and the Irish initially rejected Lisbon.

I don’t think we’ll see any significant concessions based around May’s deal, and I can’t see a second in-out referendum without a big shift in public opinion. Nor should there be - if it had gone the other way i’d be outraged if Farage had got his second referendum.