Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:06 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

I feel like remain was clearly characterised, whereas Leave was more fuzzily defined. Leave voters were individually were clear on what they were voting for, but it varied person to person. That flexibility was a huge electoral asset, but it was slippery too (see also, Tony Blair’s electoral appeal). People on all sides do mostly want a deal, but those imagined deals vary substantially - the desire is there but it is for different things; EU vs UK, Leave vs Remain, and Leave vs Leave of different stripes.

I can't disagree with any of what you say to be fair, its because of what you say that when they say Brexiteers didn't vote for this, how do they know because the Leave vote was for so many different reasons. I thought at one time some politicians were asking for a 3 way referendum, with either except the deal, leave with no deal or remain, for me in effect splitting the leave vote.

Although I have heard different treason for remain, They see themselves as more European, so they can go on holiday, worried about the future, worried about their jobs especially if they work for a European wide company etc.

I would like to leave with a deal if possible

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:18 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

They weren’t votes to leave or remain, but to ratify (or not) treaties. The Danes initially rejected Maastricht and the Irish initially rejected Lisbon.

I don’t think we’ll see any significant concessions based around May’s deal, and I can’t see a second in-out referendum without a big shift in public opinion. Nor should there be - if it had gone the other way i’d be outraged if Farage had got his second referendum.

Thank you for the clarification mate. I wondered why we hadn't been offered any concessions

I wouldn't want another referendum apart from the obvious, ive never been part of one before and found it very divisive. I wish they would stop trying to wrap it up differently by calling it a peoples vote.

Paul

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:05 am  

POSTL wrote:

Although I have heard different treason for remain, They see themselves as more European, so they can go on holiday, worried about the future, worried about their jobs especially if they work for a European wide company etc.

I would like to leave with a deal if possible

I agree votes for remain reflected different priorities, but I think there was much clearer consensus about the pros and cons and, more obviously, what would happen next.

Leave could be seen as a vote for greater national freedom, but I think people were able to best case what we would choose to do from their own POV and, because it was a broad/diverse coalition of interests, now those choices are upon us there is a tension.

For example, many workers saw a need to reduce the influx of cheap labour from Eastern Europe. In contrast, many Leave-supporting employers quite like having access to that cheap labour, and/or free access to EU markets but would like to be free of some EU regulations - such as protections for workers that they see as making their business less flexible.

Corbyn seems to see the EU as a potential brake on his more socialist vision for the UK. Someone like Raab sees Leaving as an opportunity to unleash a more red-blooded, deregulated form of market capitalism.

So, we’ll be a bit freer to choose, but those choices will disappoint a lot of people whose hopes have been raised.

Imo it was a vote for a single thing that is, versus a number things that could be, but mostly won’t be. Those targeted ads allowed the Leave campaign to not only focus on points that were of most importance to different groups, but to say contradictory things, because people didn’t see the messages targeted at other groups, which they might be much less keen on. It was brilliant in its way and was key to winning Brexit, but it creates a huge problem in delivering Brexit.

People want what they were promised. And it isn’t so much that Leave over promised - people know campaigns are a hard sell and to take claims with a pinch of salt. It’s that they promised different things.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:16 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

I agree votes for remain reflected different priorities, but I think there was much clearer consensus about the pros and cons and, more obviously, what would happen next.

Leave could be seen as a vote for greater national freedom, but I think people were able to best case what we would choose to do from their own POV and, because it was a broad/diverse coalition of interests, now those choices are upon us there is a tension.

For example, many workers saw a need to reduce the influx of cheap labour from Eastern Europe. In contrast, many Leave-supporting employers quite like having access to that cheap labour, and/or free access to EU markets but would like to be free of some EU regulations - such as protections for workers that they see as making their business less flexible.

Corbyn seems to see the EU as a potential brake on his more socialist vision for the UK. Someone like Raab sees Leaving as an opportunity to unleash a more red-blooded, deregulated form of market capitalism.

So, we’ll be a bit freer to choose, but those choices will disappoint a lot of people whose hopes have been raised.

Imo it was a vote for a single thing that is, versus a number things that could be, but mostly won’t be. Those targeted ads allowed the Leave campaign to not only focus on points that were of most importance to different groups, but to say contradictory things, because people didn’t see the messages targeted at other groups, which they might be much less keen on. It was brilliant in its way and was key to winning Brexit, but it creates a huge problem in delivering Brexit.

People want what they were promised. And it isn’t so much that Leave over promised - people know campaigns are a hard sell and to take claims with a pinch of salt. It’s that they promised different things.

Yeah I see your point on reasons to leave and to be fair mine was specifically none of the above which proves your point I suppose, my main reason was as I have stated freedom of movement, however, my reasons for this is; many of the people coming from Eastern European countries came for the same reason us northerners used to go to London we as they do think the street were paved with gold and in reality its just not, that's why imo they are queuing up on the French and Belgium borders to get over here. Nothing wrong with either country they just think it's better here. A guy on the news only last night was saying " in France he's on the streets in England he will get a house'. Which as we know its just not true its his perception. If we invite anybody into this country to work and live we have imo a duty of care to provide adequate health care, schooling and housing where ever they are from.

With regards to the influx of cheap Labour from Europe, I assume these hoteliers, farmers etc who mostly use this labour are being paid at least the minimum wage. If that's not the case then it should be stopped, nobody should be working for less that the agreed minimum wage. I am not sure why the government is saying only highly skilled people will be allowed in ?

Neither do i agree when May says she will try and get net immigration down to the 10s of thousands, what is the point in that if we need (say) 500,000 people to work in this country then, so be it but, we should also have the infrastructure investment eg homes, schools etc. Thats why i say i'm not against immigration just freedom of movement.

Lots of false claims were made during the referendum by both sides, the most glaring for me was the promise on the side of the big red bus that we all remember, of that 350 or 380 million or so we currently pay into the EU a year we get over 100 million of that back going to Farmers, fisheries etc, that must be honoured when we leave, policed yes, but honoured just the same.

When you say it was a vote for a single thing that is, versus a number things that could be, but mostly won't be. Im not sure about that as I don't know what people voted for, but what I do know is that it was stated by both sides during the election build up that we will be leaving the single market and the customs union because to be in either of those we would have to accept freedom of movement. So I really don't know how you can say most won't be with regards leaving the EU. One thing I can say, the single thing that was voted for by remain voters the majority of the country don't want. BUT I STILL DON"T THINK WE WILL LEAVE

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:52 am  

POSTL wrote:

I STILL DON"T THINK WE WILL LEAVE

If this happens we'll be in for interesting times*.
*see (alleged) Chinese proverb
A very basic calculation tells us the far right will see a huge upsurge.
2015: 3.8 million UKIP votes.
2016: 17.4 million leave votes.

Let's assume all of those UKIP voters voted leave. That gives us 13+ million voters from other parties being told their vote is meaningless. Even now there's a growing undercurrent of fury among leave voters, who are angrily watching the various factions playing politics - some want to soften Brexit, some want the hardest Brexit, some want May's deal, some want a 2nd referendum, some want to reverse Brexit, some are more concerned with a General Election whatever the cost. They're all playing games and damn the rest.

I listened to some wet (cross-party) politicians the other night assuring one another there wouldn't be any civil disorder because (and I sh*t you not), "while the French like a good riot, it simply isn't British". Deary me.

Civil disorder would only be the start. Far right groups and parties would suddenly be the only option left for those who had thought their voices had finally been heard, only to be told "too stupid, too racist, not 'our' sort of voter". There will be a lot of p*ssed voters out there and let's remember 8 or 9 million votes could easily see a party in opposition Indeed, 10.7 million was enough to win (hung) in 2010. Granted, our 'first past the post' system would make it difficult, but there have been bigger shocks in recent years and the anger out there is palpable.

Meanwhile, Labour are splintering, and shedding voters. Their traditional working class support (much of which voted leave) is AGAIN being told their opinions and concerns matter less than others. The new generation - the militant Corbynistas - are gradually realising their idol is out of tune with their views and is, in reality, a staunch Eurosceptic. They are losing members and their working class voters are angry.

If the idiotic liberal left think reversing Brexit would be the end of it, they are sorely mistaken. I've only ever voted Labour and Tory in my life but if Brexit was reversed I'd be raising a middle finger and voting for whichever hard right group emerged - frankly I wouldn't care less by that point, and I am far from alone.

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:24 am  

Cronus wrote:

if Brexit was reversed I'd be raising a middle finger and voting for whichever hard right group emerged - frankly I wouldn't care less by that point, and I am far from alone.

You’d vote hard right as in UKIP then, with Batten and his out and out racist agenda?

You should read a history book.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:03 am  

Cronus wrote:

if Brexit was reversed I'd be raising a middle finger and voting for whichever hard right group emerged - frankly I wouldn't care less by that point, and I am far from alone.

I'm sure you showed the same snowflake outrage when May called a snap election less than 2 years after the last one & only gave opposition parties & the electorate a couple of months to prepare. I'm sure I saw you on the telly demonstrating against that blatant attempt to stifle opposition.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:19 am  

Cronus wrote:

If this happens we'll be in for interesting times*.
*see (alleged) Chinese proverb
A very basic calculation tells us the far right will see a huge upsurge.
2015: 3.8 million UKIP votes.
2016: 17.4 million leave votes.

Let's assume all of those UKIP voters voted leave. That gives us 13+ million voters from other parties being told their vote is meaningless. Even now there's a growing undercurrent of fury among leave voters, who are angrily watching the various factions playing politics - some want to soften Brexit, some want the hardest Brexit, some want May's deal, some want a 2nd referendum, some want to reverse Brexit, some are more concerned with a General Election whatever the cost. They're all playing games and damn the rest.

I listened to some wet (cross-party) politicians the other night assuring one another there wouldn't be any civil disorder because (and I sh*t you not), "while the French like a good riot, it simply isn't British". Deary me.

Civil disorder would only be the start. Far right groups and parties would suddenly be the only option left for those who had thought their voices had finally been heard, only to be told "too stupid, too racist, not 'our' sort of voter". There will be a lot of p*ssed voters out there and let's remember 8 or 9 million votes could easily see a party in opposition Indeed, 10.7 million was enough to win (hung) in 2010. Granted, our 'first past the post' system would make it difficult, but there have been bigger shocks in recent years and the anger out there is palpable.

Meanwhile, Labour are splintering, and shedding voters. Their traditional working class support (much of which voted leave) is AGAIN being told their opinions and concerns matter less than others. The new generation - the militant Corbynistas - are gradually realising their idol is out of tune with their views and is, in reality, a staunch Eurosceptic. They are losing members and their working class voters are angry.

If the idiotic liberal left think reversing Brexit would be the end of it, they are sorely mistaken. I've only ever voted Labour and Tory in my life but if Brexit was reversed I'd be raising a middle finger and voting for whichever hard right group emerged - frankly I wouldn't care less by that point, and I am far from alone.

Interesting post and it just shows what a bloody mess our politicians have made over this issue.
I've said many times that May should have both listened and involved people from a range of groups at the outset, instead of leaving her pseudo olive branch until almost after the event.

Even with something like May's deal which is struggling to get past Parliament, there will be more unhappy people than happy and with the broad range of view on the subject and the numerous warring factions, it's difficult to see just how life will pan out post Brexit.

The problem is that Farage and Co sold a dream rather than anything close to reality and should we drop off the cliff edge with a "hard Brexit", there could be problems in the opposite direction.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:52 am  

Cronus wrote:

If this happens we'll be in for interesting times*.
*see (alleged) Chinese proverb
A very basic calculation tells us the far right will see a huge upsurge.
2015: 3.8 million UKIP votes.
2016: 17.4 million leave votes.

Let's assume all of those UKIP voters voted leave. That gives us 13+ million voters from other parties being told their vote is meaningless. Even now there's a growing undercurrent of fury among leave voters, who are angrily watching the various factions playing politics - some want to soften Brexit, some want the hardest Brexit, some want May's deal, some want a 2nd referendum, some want to reverse Brexit, some are more concerned with a General Election whatever the cost. They're all playing games and damn the rest.

I listened to some wet (cross-party) politicians the other night assuring one another there wouldn't be any civil disorder because (and I sh*t you not), "while the French like a good riot, it simply isn't British". Deary me.

Civil disorder would only be the start. Far right groups and parties would suddenly be the only option left for those who had thought their voices had finally been heard, only to be told "too stupid, too racist, not 'our' sort of voter". There will be a lot of p*ssed voters out there and let's remember 8 or 9 million votes could easily see a party in opposition Indeed, 10.7 million was enough to win (hung) in 2010. Granted, our 'first past the post' system would make it difficult, but there have been bigger shocks in recent years and the anger out there is palpable.

Meanwhile, Labour are splintering, and shedding voters. Their traditional working class support (much of which voted leave) is AGAIN being told their opinions and concerns matter less than others. The new generation - the militant Corbynistas - are gradually realising their idol is out of tune with their views and is, in reality, a staunch Eurosceptic. They are losing members and their working class voters are angry.

If the idiotic liberal left think reversing Brexit would be the end of it, they are sorely mistaken. I've only ever voted Labour and Tory in my life but if Brexit was reversed I'd be raising a middle finger and voting for whichever hard right group emerged - frankly I wouldn't care less by that point, and I am far from alone.

I agree with most of what you say, I also saw the Farage re civil unrest. However, Ive said in previous posts that if we did have a general election as (everything is still on the table) Labour keep saying then I just don't know who I would I would vote for. UKIP would not to long ago be the ideal party for me, but they are going just to far right for me. I Just couldn't vote for the far right just as much as I couldn't vote for the far left. If UKIP are going to the far right as the reports suggest then that brings racism with it which I would find totally abhorrent. So ive got Tories who are totally split and making a mess of Brexit. Labour that won't commit to anything after 2 years. Lib Dems that are going against the will of the referendum to pick up cheap votes, and formed a coalition with the Tories at the last election and in doing so dropped there main promise of scrapping tuition fees, UKIP to far right for me

Paul

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:58 am  

tigertot wrote:

I'm sure you showed the same snowflake outrage when May called a snap election less than 2 years after the last one & only gave opposition parties & the electorate a couple of months to prepare. I'm sure I saw you on the telly demonstrating against that blatant attempt to stifle opposition.

Agreed, That backfired big time eh , however, if my memory serves me correctly Labour were also pushing for an election as they Kept saying she was an unelected Prime Minister and should face the electorate.