Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 29, 2016 6:07 pm  

LifeLongHKRFan wrote:

IMO I think there isn't a politician out there other than Farage who would trigger article 50 right now. It would be political suicide to do so and who would take a gamble on their career? Cameron has said he wont do it and the official leave campaign people have said there is no rush. Whoever succeeds Cameron has to either trigger it and send the economy into probably a depression or risk the wrath of the leave voters and not trigger it at all. Either way the new Prime Minister is between a rock and a hard place. Maybe a third option would be to trigger another referendum. This would while enraging leave supporters give them a bit of time to assess the situation properly. However this may also p**s off the EU as they would want some stability.

As I said, rock and hard place.

new pm around september time, or decided who it will be anyway, then not long after that it will be triggered and negotiations begin

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:13 pm  

crumpledshorts wrote:

Seems Biff has either gone to the Bingo or been sedated, best result other than Corbyn being sacked and the nasty, anti progress party being disbanded and the SNP installed as the true opposition

label me a racist with no evidence then chase me around throwing more insults.

its clearly you embarrassing yourself here.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:14 pm  

Well it looks like the reasoned sensible discussion by myself , Roy and a few others yesterday has gone out the window

Back to the insults I see

Have to say I am disappointed with Mr Cameron , he called the referendum for his own personal and party reasons , he stated he would remain and deal with whatever was the result , he now has shown his cowardice in bucket loads

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:17 pm  

Roy Haggerty wrote:

For those who are interested in reality, you may note that there is now open discussion in France and Germany of how the City will have its "passporting" removed as a central plan of -ANY- post-Brexit settlement.

The City's financial services industry is the largest single export we have, and we're running record trade deficits already.

If we do this, it is going to go, and our whole economy with it.

So essentially we are married to the Mafia ?

And you want us to stay and work for these people ? , notice I said for , not with , because that is the reality as well , remain now and we bend over forever , I'd rather take the financial hit

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:21 pm  

No mention of today's disasterous financials ?

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:31 pm  

crumpledshorts wrote:

Tells you all you need to know about Starbug and his other little englanders. They've screwed the younger generation by swallowing the lies for the leave campaign. Funny how now the leave campaign are saying "there's no rush to leave, we need free trade and movement of individuals", we're not going to be given an "EU Lite" option!

You know nothing about me

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:14 pm  

GUBRATS wrote: No mention of today's disasterous financials ? It's really important to look at the overall movements and the trends, not the daily volatility, as I mentioned in an earlier post. Also, as mentioned before, the FTSE 250 is a better indicator of the UK impact than the FTSE 100 (as the miners, multinationals, and anything with earnings not in pounds, are actually doing rather well from the devaluation of Sterling). If you do, you can see that FTSE 250 is still nearly 8% down from Thursday. We're now in volatility stretch. I'd expect it to jump around quite a lot depending on announcements, but with an overall trend of down. Also, the picture on the exchange rate is also still clear : http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1W From this point, the temptation will be for every drop to be met with Remainers shouting "told you so", and every rise with Brexiters shouting "See, no problem". This would be premature. We need to watch the trend, and we've now had 4 trading days. Give it a couple of weeks for that to emerge. In the meantime, the rumour mill will continue to swirl. Latest gossip from Europe is that French and Germans are developing a Boris skewer. They'll offer him EEA membership with -some- control over immigrants, but in return, the City loses its passport. So Boris is faced with having to take a deal to the Brexit voters that they can have fewer Poles (which will cost us money, because they are net contributors), at the price of losing the City banks (which will also cost us money). The voters cheer because they hate both bankers and Poles, and the UK is royally screwed while the Germans and French go laughing all the way to [our] banks! Just a rumour at present. Wait 5 minutes and there'll be another one.

GUBRATS wrote: No mention of today's disasterous financials ? It's really important to look at the overall movements and the trends, not the daily volatility, as I mentioned in an earlier post. Also, as mentioned before, the FTSE 250 is a better indicator of the UK impact than the FTSE 100 (as the miners, multinationals, and anything with earnings not in pounds, are actually doing rather well from the devaluation of Sterling). If you do, you can see that FTSE 250 is still nearly 8% down from Thursday. We're now in volatility stretch. I'd expect it to jump around quite a lot depending on announcements, but with an overall trend of down. Also, the picture on the exchange rate is also still clear : http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1W From this point, the temptation will be for every drop to be met with Remainers shouting "told you so", and every rise with Brexiters shouting "See, no problem". This would be premature. We need to watch the trend, and we've now had 4 trading days. Give it a couple of weeks for that to emerge. In the meantime, the rumour mill will continue to swirl. Latest gossip from Europe is that French and Germans are developing a Boris skewer. They'll offer him EEA membership with -some- control over immigrants, but in return, the City loses its passport. So Boris is faced with having to take a deal to the Brexit voters that they can have fewer Poles (which will cost us money, because they are net contributors), at the price of losing the City banks (which will also cost us money). The voters cheer because they hate both bankers and Poles, and the UK is royally screwed while the Germans and French go laughing all the way to [our] banks! Just a rumour at present. Wait 5 minutes and there'll be another one.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:25 pm  

Roy Haggerty wrote:

From this point, the temptation will be for every drop to be met with Remainers shouting "told you so", and every rise with Brexiters shouting "See, no problem". This would be premature. We need to watch the trend, and we've now had 4 trading days. Give it a couple of weeks for that to emerge.

Quite correct Roy , just as expected , there will be ups and downs , and bigger ones than usual , when we do send the letter no doubt we will see a bigger ' crash ' , but even your good self was highlighting the down without suggesting what you've just posted

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:48 pm  

GUBRATS wrote:

Quite correct Roy , just as expected , there will be ups and downs , and bigger ones than usual , when we do send the letter no doubt we will see a bigger ' crash ' , but even your good self was highlighting the down without suggesting what you've just posted

Not quite. I'm absolutely certain the trend will be down unless a serious movement/consensus begins to emerge at Westminster which finds us a way out of this mess and staying in the EU. At the moment, there's lots of hope that'll happen, but also tremendous fear it won't, so you'll see erratic ups and downs in a falling trend. But as soon as it becomes clear whether we can abort the self-destruct, or whether we're going full kamikaze, then you'll see a much more significant movement either up or down.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jun 29, 2016 10:11 pm  

Our trade deficit has been a problem for years, and our economy has essentially been built on a ponzi scheme, while we've sold off our industries, and robbed ourselves of an opportunity to build an economy made up of actual substance.
We had an opportunity in 2008 to restore some much needed reality to the global economy, but we instead chose to reinstate the bubble, and we've been living in a zombie economy ever since. The economic turmoil we're seeing was bound to happen at some point (major shocks tend to occur every 8 years) given the mounting global debt, and stagnant growth. This will be painful for a prolonged period of time, but frankly it may well be necessary for the sustainability of the global economy in the long-term