Re: TORY Mansion tax and pension raid ? : Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:02 pm
sally cinnamon wrote:
Cummings has shown an ability to plot successful campaigns, which is a different thing from successfully governing.
In terms of his ideas, I wouldn't write him off. I think he has some interesting thoughts and whilst he seems to be a man of the right in terms of 'culture war', he has grasped some things about the importance of science and education and the need to spread wealth around the country that make him a more progressive force than the Cameron/Osborne acolytes. I don't think he is in politics to suck up to the already super rich.
The interesting point will be when Cummings starts to clash with the Conservative hierachy. He isn't even a member of the Conservative party, he's just someone they use because they think he is effective and like that he is non-pc and willing to take on aspects of the establishment they don't like, the BBC, courts etc. But it seems that this whole Treasury coup was forced because Cummings wants to go far further in terms of turning on the spending taps than the Javid or the Treasury upper brass were comfortable with. If he starts throwing cash around, Conservatives will find it distasteful but they'll suck it up and go along with it, as long as they think it helps them be popular.
If a recession comes along, and the government lose popularity, then Boris will be under pressure to change direction and offer up some heads on spikes, and Cummings ability to make enemies out of everyone will mean he'll be vulnerable at that point.
Nick Timothy, Theresa May's SpAD, was another overbearing character trying to run everything from No.10, although he kept a lower profile than Cummings does. But he had the same traits of bullying/falling out with many people in the Conservative hierachy. He was sacked the day after the 2017 election, when Theresa May needed a sacrificial head on a spike and his many enemies turned on him.
I think similar may happen with Seamus Milne in Labour, particularly if they have the pretext of the EHRC report pointing to him as being a problem with interfering with antisemitism expulsions.
In terms of his ideas, I wouldn't write him off. I think he has some interesting thoughts and whilst he seems to be a man of the right in terms of 'culture war', he has grasped some things about the importance of science and education and the need to spread wealth around the country that make him a more progressive force than the Cameron/Osborne acolytes. I don't think he is in politics to suck up to the already super rich.
The interesting point will be when Cummings starts to clash with the Conservative hierachy. He isn't even a member of the Conservative party, he's just someone they use because they think he is effective and like that he is non-pc and willing to take on aspects of the establishment they don't like, the BBC, courts etc. But it seems that this whole Treasury coup was forced because Cummings wants to go far further in terms of turning on the spending taps than the Javid or the Treasury upper brass were comfortable with. If he starts throwing cash around, Conservatives will find it distasteful but they'll suck it up and go along with it, as long as they think it helps them be popular.
If a recession comes along, and the government lose popularity, then Boris will be under pressure to change direction and offer up some heads on spikes, and Cummings ability to make enemies out of everyone will mean he'll be vulnerable at that point.
Nick Timothy, Theresa May's SpAD, was another overbearing character trying to run everything from No.10, although he kept a lower profile than Cummings does. But he had the same traits of bullying/falling out with many people in the Conservative hierachy. He was sacked the day after the 2017 election, when Theresa May needed a sacrificial head on a spike and his many enemies turned on him.
I think similar may happen with Seamus Milne in Labour, particularly if they have the pretext of the EHRC report pointing to him as being a problem with interfering with antisemitism expulsions.
Alistair Campbell was exactly the same - a tyrant who took no prisoners - it is what is needed at the top of these organisations. Campbell rode on the back of engineering election victories until Iraq came along and he could no longer defend the indefensible. Him and Cummings are no different - Blair was a front as is Boris.
If you get into harder times you need agile thinkers who are prepared to react to conditions not stuck on method such as Hammond. Cummings is a bright guy he has shown his versatility and his ability to read situations - certainly out thought Milne - not that difficult really. That's what happens when you have had everything given to you on a plate e.g. Milne and you have never been in the trenches. Cummings has openly discussed the Tories shortcomings so I doubt it will be issue going forward.
Timothy turned a 30 point lead into a 1% lead he deserved to get the sack - the same cannot be said of Cummings. If we have a recession but the government is spending in areas that people like e.g. NHS/Education/Police etc they will be protected to a point - Cummings is correct you can't say end of austerity and continue with it for another 5 years that would suicide.
Brighter things on the horizon Ms Long-Bailey is catching Starmer - so being Trans will be compulsory for us all!! I ask one question if a man is convicted of crime at the trial self-determines as a women does he/she go to a woman's prison?
