Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:03 am  

POSTL wrote:

I have said it before, May has put a figure on what she would like to get immigration down to, my opinion is why put a number on it we need what we need if that's 100,000 then so be it. Neither do I understand when she says she will only want highly skilled Labour from overseas, I really don't know what that means or how that will help the building, hospitality industry etc

You've landed on one of Mrs May's red lines - which appears to be something of a hangover from her days in the Home Office, when she was responsible for creating the 'Hostile Environment' - typified by her infamous speech where she stated we could 'deport first and ask questions later.' She is obsessed with immigration - but strangely didn't use the powers that were available to her as Home Sec to curtail EU migration.

It seems to me that the gammony, UKIP types, who certainly did have immigration as their main concern, were pandered to by the lies of Farage and Johnson in the referendum campaign - and Mrs May is both emboldened by that sentiment, and afeared of losing those people as voters, so sticks doggedly to the plan that allows her to end FoM - despite all the evidence that it would have a negative impact on the economy - and on UK migrants in the EU, who we rather sweetly refer to as ex-pats rather than migrants, because they're somehow nicer when they're British?

As for Cronus' analogy of a boardroom negotiation - it doesn't exist, apart from perhaps in his 80's movie fantasy world, where the protagonist risks everything to stare down his opponent and win the day; this isn't a business deal - it's a hugely complicated socio-economic partnership that has developed over 40 years and has seen the EU countries harmonise to an impressive and mutually beneficial degree; no amount of puffed up, self-important English bluster will make that any different - and any negotiator who used the threat of no-deal, and all the harm it would bring, as a bargaining chip, would not be taken seriously. If we must leave the EU, it is the responsibility of those in power to do so in a way that has the least harmful effect on the UK economy - which would of course be by staying in *a* customs union and being closely aligned to the single market... If only someone was proposing a plan like that.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:04 am  

Just as a general point, I do love a good debate and that's what were having here, even though I voted to leave, I do respect all the views of you guys that voted to remain, yes we do sometimes wonder where or how somebody has come to a particular opinion on both sides, I have heard people voted to remain because they still want to go on holiday or they see themselves as more European than British.

At heart we are all Rugby League fans, and for the most part and apart from the banter during the match, we do respect each other and all have something massive in common which is our game.

The point I want to make is Cum on the Wire (Its always our year)

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:04 am  

Bullseye wrote:

I see the usual courtesy and manners are on display.

Behaviour breeds behaviour. If you're going to be condescending expect it back.

No answer to the post? No surprise there.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:16 am  

Mild Rover wrote:

But when we discuss an option as offering chaos and devastation, to convince them we’re not bluffing, we have to convince them we’re idiots. Mind you, it’s depressing to think how easily they could believe that nowadays.

A bullying ‘whites of our eyes’ approach to negotiation only really works when negotiating from a dominant position. We’re not. Also it damages trust, and we still have to negotiate a future relationship after the withdrawal agreement is done. Looking at mutual interests and for win-win options would be a more conventional and productive approach imo.

Until a deal is done, no deal always remains an option. The anti-no deal amendment passed by the Commons was as weak as water and non-binding. The ‘no renegotiation’ position of the EU was their response to the ‘please sir, I want some more’ Brady amendment. The general consensus seems to be that the chances of no deal went up following the most recent series of votes, so it is hardly off the table.

When you say Ireland will become desperate, start screaming and give way, is the implication that we’ll gain a sense of calm equanimity and stand firm in the face of the same doom. Are you saying that the Irish are weaker of will than us, or that we are more stupid/less sane?

You're making plenty of odd assumptions there.

The Irish are absolutely desperate to avoid a hard border. Moreso than anyone else at the table, including the UK. If negotiations fail to the point of no deal and a hard border, the EU MUST blink. It's nothing to do with being weak, it's simply the reality of the situation. If things reach that point do you think Ireland will simply carry on with their approach to date, which has been a very childish, "you chose to leave, you sort it out"?

It's not ideal and it would mark a failure of Parliament, but it could work to our advantage.

Similarly, it would mark a failure of the EU to negotiate reasonably. Let's face it, they don't have a glowing track record in crisis situations and another failure sends the wrong message to a already fragmenting Europe.

We may not be in a dominant position right now but the threat of a hard border is a a powerful one which overshadows everything else.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:30 am  

bren2k wrote:

As for Cronus' analogy of a boardroom negotiation - it doesn't exist, apart from perhaps in his 80's movie fantasy world, where the protagonist risks everything to stare down his opponent and win the day; this isn't a business deal - it's a hugely complicated socio-economic partnership that has developed over 40 years and has seen the EU countries harmonise to an impressive and mutually beneficial degree; no amount of puffed up, self-important English bluster will make that any different - and any negotiator who used the threat of no-deal, and all the harm it would bring, as a bargaining chip, would not be taken seriously. If we must leave the EU, it is the responsibility of those in power to do so in a way that has the least harmful effect on the UK economy - which would of course be by staying in *a* customs union and being closely aligned to the single market... If only someone was proposing a plan like that.

But puffed-up self-important EU bluster is fine?

You're not reading what I'm saying. If Parliament fail to agree a deal (which is a very real possibility), and the EU remain as stubborn as ever, the threat of a no deal and hard border looms over everything.

Point out where I've said we're using (or should be using) it as a threat. That anyone is sat in a boardroom staring down anyone. I haven't. But it doesn't change the fact it's still there in the background.

FYI boardroom negotiations are often also incredibly complex and can take years of talks involving dozens of different parties. The threat of walking away is always in the background, just as the threat of no deal/hard border is right now. No one generally says "do it or we walk away", but it's still a possibility right up to the point the process succeeds or fails.

It may have escaped your notice, but Ireland are an EU member and would be thrown off a cliff in the event of a hard border. They know it all too well, hence a hardening of their language in recent weeks. You think the EU will go along with that?

I fully accept it could go to sh#t and we all go off a cliff. But there is still time for the EU to finally show some flexibility when one of their members is under threat of a dire economic hit - a hit they can do something about

Hopefully a deal will be agreed and none of it will be necessary.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:48 am  

POSTL wrote:

Ive been out of the construction Industry for 4 years ( I no longer have to pay my exuberant fees to RICS and CIOB)

My RICS fees are due now. A snip at >£500.....Fortunately my employer pays.

The last 15 years or so of my working Career, I worked in the Health Service (in Construction) if I had a scheme of over 1 million I think the threshold was which was not all but most of my schemes, I had to go through EOJU which was the European journal, this more than doubled the tender process, we got our budgets on the lst April and had to be completed, signed off and paid for by 1st of April the year after as that money was no longer there. we rarely got any EU companies sending in tenders, but when we did they never won any because of the prelims etc.

All my work is over the OJEU threshold. It is based on the Euro & is currently c£4m. It can add to the process but not really if you develop a design in parallel & it only applies to public procurement anyway. What is interesting, & largely unknown, is that under EU law public works under that figure does not have to follow the process. However the UK Govt has decreed that all public works over £25k (yes £25k) has to be advertised in Contracts Finder & any company can apply & you follow almost exactly the same process as through OJEU.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:56 am  

Cronus wrote:

FYI boardroom negotiations are often also incredibly complex and can take years of talks involving dozens of different parties.

Yet we are happy to have to start such negotiations with numerous countries to replace the EU trade deals from a position of desperate weakness.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:25 pm  

tigertot wrote:

My RICS fees are due now. A snip at >£500.....Fortunately my employer pays.

All my work is over the OJEU threshold. It is based on the Euro & is currently c£4m. It can add to the process but not really if you develop a design in parallel & it only applies to public procurement anyway. What is interesting, & largely unknown, is that under EU law public works under that figure does not have to follow the process. However the UK Govt has decreed that all public works over £25k (yes £25k) has to be advertised in Contracts Finder & any company can apply & you follow almost exactly the same process as through OJEU.

P21+ is the govt fudge around OJEU

The £25k is the figure at which public capital schemes have to go out to full tender, making us spend your money wisely

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:32 pm  

POSTL wrote:

P21+ is the govt fudge around OJEU

The £25k is the figure at which public capital schemes have to go out to full tender, making us spend your money wisely

Although I am in a different sector, I tend to write our ITT's to make sure we get the vendor we want, it's jumping through hoops for the sake of it.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:36 pm  

MGarbutt1986 wrote:

Although I am in a different sector, I tend to write our ITT's to make sure we get the vendor we want, it's jumping through hoops for the sake of it.

Absolutely mate