[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:26 pm  

POSTL wrote:

The Backstop does seem to be the biggest issue whilst I do agree it's not the only issue, I would have thought that both the Irish and the Uk governments are both as desperate as each other to avoid the hard border. Another issue that may help. If we do end up leaving without a deal then having read some of the reports our economy will initially be much worse off than all the EU nations to differing degrees, however, the Irish economy is closely linked to ours, so whilst not being quite as worse off as us they are not far behind. Possibly that's why we bailed them out with a loan when when the Euro zone crashed as it was also in our interests.

It's just a shame the 2 governments can't get their heads together in a locked brightly lit room and come up with a mutual agreement to put to the EU as we are both supposed to be sovereign nations, I have only heard the Irish PM saying we need to speak to the EU.

I think that's a fair enough idea in principle. However, from an Irish perspective (their population is about 8% the size of the UK's and their economy is about 12% the size of ours), having bigger countries like Germany and France at their back maybe appeals. And it is an EU border too, so the other 26 won't want the Irish to go freestyling too much.

The two governments are desperate to avoid a hard border - and that's why there is a backstop, so there can't be one.

The problem is, there are no alternative arrangements that work and this is, obviously, a very 'special' border. However long negotiators were locked in a room, I don't think that'll change.

Time limit - what then? Hard border, presumably.
Unilateral withdrawal - hard border
Technological or trusted trader scheme - probably belongs more in the next round of negotiations on a comprehensive trade deal, if we don't go for a customs union. And we actually get that far.

There's a trust issue. For people who view the EU as a malign conspiracy to destroy the UK's sovereignty, I suppose it is easy to imagine this is all to trap us in the backstop forever. If you don't, then it just looks like a sensible precaution to avoid reigniting a civil war in the six counties.

It exposes a weakness in our position rather than creating it.

It's a shame a softer Brexit was never seriously considered by May. Especially as the fairly full-on approach she took hasn't appeased those it was meant to. For all that she was a quiet remainer - she was a remainer, and she maybe overcompensated. On some aspects anyway - I'm sure she's genuinely enthusiastic about ending free movement of people, for example. As are many, in fairness.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:54 pm  

I think this does a decent job of explaining why pro-remain/anti-leave arguments failed to convince many working class voters, and continue to fail to do so. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ss-leavers The synopsis: Many working-class leavers were not motivated by self-interest, but by values. Well-off liberals who back tax rises should understand that. That's why the 'nobody voted to be poorer' slogan bugs me - it just misses the point completely. It isn't always about the economy, stupid!

I think this does a decent job of explaining why pro-remain/anti-leave arguments failed to convince many working class voters, and continue to fail to do so. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ss-leavers The synopsis: Many working-class leavers were not motivated by self-interest, but by values. Well-off liberals who back tax rises should understand that. That's why the 'nobody voted to be poorer' slogan bugs me - it just misses the point completely. It isn't always about the economy, stupid!

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:32 pm  

Mild Rover wrote: I think this does a decent job of explaining why pro-remain/anti-leave arguments failed to convince many working class voters, and continue to fail to do so. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ss-leavers The synopsis: Many working-class leavers were not motivated by self-interest, but by values. Well-off liberals who back tax rises should understand that. That's why the 'nobody voted to be poorer' slogan bugs me - it just misses the point completely. It isn't always about the economy, stupid! Although they are noble sentiments, I'm not entirely sure that "most" people would agree and it really all depends where we end up and more importantly what the different motivations were for the leave vote. There is a certain irony about going on strike for an extra few percent or "better working conditions" and then voting for a "new dawn" that may not give either. Ultimately it's a case of what you believe will happen. We still go back to the no 1 reason for the "leave" vote, which was immigration. Granted, not everyone voted for this reason but, enough people were hacked off with the numbers of Europeans coming over, the perception that this would be never ending, especially as Turkey we said to be "close" to joining the EU. You state that " It isn't always about the economy, stupid" but, many people dont connect big business failing / shrinking with their own plight becoming a little more difficult and they may argue that "because of mass immigration", their lives were getting more difficult anyway. I also believe that the government has been massively guilty of blaming immigration for all of the problems with our schools and health system etc and whilst there is undoubted additional pressure on services, we also had 10 YEARS OF AUSTERITY - less money foe ALL SERVICES and its no bloody wonder that life is more difficult for those struggling at the bottom end of the scale.

Mild Rover wrote: I think this does a decent job of explaining why pro-remain/anti-leave arguments failed to convince many working class voters, and continue to fail to do so. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ss-leavers The synopsis: Many working-class leavers were not motivated by self-interest, but by values. Well-off liberals who back tax rises should understand that. That's why the 'nobody voted to be poorer' slogan bugs me - it just misses the point completely. It isn't always about the economy, stupid! Although they are noble sentiments, I'm not entirely sure that "most" people would agree and it really all depends where we end up and more importantly what the different motivations were for the leave vote. There is a certain irony about going on strike for an extra few percent or "better working conditions" and then voting for a "new dawn" that may not give either. Ultimately it's a case of what you believe will happen. We still go back to the no 1 reason for the "leave" vote, which was immigration. Granted, not everyone voted for this reason but, enough people were hacked off with the numbers of Europeans coming over, the perception that this would be never ending, especially as Turkey we said to be "close" to joining the EU. You state that " It isn't always about the economy, stupid" but, many people dont connect big business failing / shrinking with their own plight becoming a little more difficult and they may argue that "because of mass immigration", their lives were getting more difficult anyway. I also believe that the government has been massively guilty of blaming immigration for all of the problems with our schools and health system etc and whilst there is undoubted additional pressure on services, we also had 10 YEARS OF AUSTERITY - less money foe ALL SERVICES and its no bloody wonder that life is more difficult for those struggling at the bottom end of the scale.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:10 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Although they are noble sentiments, I'm not entirely sure that "most" people would agree and it really all depends where we end up and more importantly what the different motivations were for the leave vote.
There is a certain irony about going on strike for an extra few percent or "better working conditions" and then voting for a "new dawn" that may not give either.
Ultimately it's a case of what you believe will happen.

We still go back to the no 1 reason for the "leave" vote, which was immigration.
Granted, not everyone voted for this reason but, enough people were hacked off with the numbers of Europeans coming over, the perception that this would be never ending, especially as Turkey we said to be "close" to joining the EU.
You state that " It isn't always about the economy, stupid" but, many people dont connect big business failing / shrinking with their own plight becoming a little more difficult and they may argue that "because of mass immigration", their lives were getting more difficult anyway.
I also believe that the government has been massively guilty of blaming immigration for all of the problems with our schools and health system etc and whilst there is undoubted additional pressure on services, we also had 10 YEARS OF AUSTERITY - less money foe ALL SERVICES and its no bloody wonder that life is more difficult for those struggling at the bottom end of the scale.

There are some right thickos I admit, and not just among the working classes or leave voters by any means. There are some people you just can't reach. But focusing ever more narrowly on Mondeo man or Worcester woman or the key demographic du jour pushed a lot of people to the fringes who should be in the mainstream. A couple of posters have asked 'who should I vote for?', and I think a lot of people feel like they're not being represented - and they're right, frankly. The centre needs reach out and develop a broader and more compelling narrative or it'll shrink even more and our politics will become even more polarized, unpleasant, dysfunctional and maybe even dangerous.

To me that doesn't actually have much to do with the EU, but not everybody shares my worldview. And it's not like another more relevant change was on the ballot.

We shouldn't 'other' leavers (except the EDL-types, because y'know feck them) because it'll be self-fulfilling. Equally, the reverse is true.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:53 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

There are some right thickos I admit, and not just among the working classes or leave voters by any means. There are some people you just can't reach. But focusing ever more narrowly on Mondeo man or Worcester woman or the key demographic du jour pushed a lot of people to the fringes who should be in the mainstream. A couple of posters have asked 'who should I vote for?', and I think a lot of people feel like they're not being represented - and they're right, frankly. The centre needs reach out and develop a broader and more compelling narrative or it'll shrink even more and our politics will become even more polarized, unpleasant, dysfunctional and maybe even dangerous.

To me that doesn't actually have much to do with the EU, but not everybody shares my worldview. And it's not like another more relevant change was on the ballot.

We shouldn't 'other' leavers (except the EDL-types, because y'know feck them) because it'll be self-fulfilling. Equally, the reverse is true.

The problem with this is, just who are "the centre" represented by.
The Lib-dems are a completely busted flush and the other parties have each taken a step away from the centre ground.
I wonder just how much Clegg regrets screwing over his party for a brief moment in the limelight and one where they utterly and completely failed to have ANY of their policies come to the fore.
I know that they tried to take credit for a couple of side issues but, they were barely crumbs from the Tory table and this has set them back 20 years and possibly done irrevocable damage.
Mind you, they (the Lib-dems) are the only party with a truly unified Brexit position, albeit not the one that "the people" voted for.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:21 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

The problem with this is, just who are "the centre" represented by.
The Lib-dems are a completely busted flush and the other parties have each taken a step away from the centre ground.
I wonder just how much Clegg regrets screwing over his party for a brief moment in the limelight and one where they utterly and completely failed to have ANY of their policies come to the fore.
I know that they tried to take credit for a couple of side issues but, they were barely crumbs from the Tory table and this has set them back 20 years and possibly done irrevocable damage.
Mind you, they (the Lib-dems) are the only party with a truly unified Brexit position, albeit not the one that "the people" voted for.

Clegg’s deal was an absolute shocker.

I vaguely recall one of their leading figures, possibly Danny Alexander, defending it based on the relative number of MPs they and the Conservatives had. Rather than trying to argue it should reflect share of the vote and push for more. Maybe he’d never heard of proportional representation.

When I suggest Cronus’ negotiation plan is unlikely to work, this is the nagging doubt at the back of my mind. Sometimes people just do inexplicably stupid things.

The DUP got a lot more for a lot less.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:29 pm  

Just been watching the One Show, it seems that since the referendum they have been giving out Irish Passports like sweets, so if any of you are worried about you holidays, see if you have a long lost Irish relation. Problem solved.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:52 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

Clegg’s deal was an absolute shocker.

I vaguely recall one of their leading figures, possibly Danny Alexander, defending it based on the relative number of MPs they and the Conservatives had. Rather than trying to argue it should reflect share of the vote and push for more. Maybe he’d never heard of proportional representation.

When I suggest Cronus’ negotiation plan is unlikely to work, this is the nagging doubt at the back of my mind. Sometimes people just do inexplicably stupid things.

The DUP got a lot more for a lot less.

They did and that's well done to them.
Clegg was just blinded by the spotlight and didn't realise the amount of power that his party actually had.
If they had managed just one serious piece of their manifesto, they would have grown as a party but, their chance has long gone now.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:37 am  

Well. Although I'm surprised the EU are the ones to put pressure on Ireland rather than vice versa, the Irish issue is swiftly becoming the decisive factor. https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/dublin- ... exit-deal/ https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politic ... -1.3776490 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-backstop The language of the EU and the softening of Germany speaks volumes. They want Ireland to give up their irrational stance and get the feck on with agreeing something positive. The EU know the matter of the Irish border could force a no deal, and they are not happy about it. The fact is, a UK outside the EU still offers far more than an Ireland within the EU.

Well. Although I'm surprised the EU are the ones to put pressure on Ireland rather than vice versa, the Irish issue is swiftly becoming the decisive factor. https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/dublin- ... exit-deal/ https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politic ... -1.3776490 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-backstop The language of the EU and the softening of Germany speaks volumes. They want Ireland to give up their irrational stance and get the feck on with agreeing something positive. The EU know the matter of the Irish border could force a no deal, and they are not happy about it. The fact is, a UK outside the EU still offers far more than an Ireland within the EU.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:50 am  

Funny old world isn’t it ? If you fly air lingus from Dublin to the USA you are cleared for USA entry by American customs officials in Dublin Airport. So the USA border in this instance is in Dublin.A simple practical solution to avoid congestion at USA airports. The Northern Ireland border problem is only a problem because the Brussels bureaucracy is making it a problem. Unfortunately the Irish government is dancing to the EU tune. Quite bizarre when both Eire and the U.K. both state they don’t want a border. Yet this scenario is potentially threatening the completion of the withdrawal agreement. Perhaps the EU doesn’t want a deal. Probably suits them to punish us as a warning to prevent any other country escaping the EU.
Meanwhile in the real world youth unemployment in Italy, Greece and Spain remains high. Macron sneers at us whilst the majority of France has seen living standards fall year on year. Vast parts of the country is in open revolt.I have quite a few friends who live in France they are extremely concerned at the present situation. Italy is slipping into a recession, they like the French soon take to the streets. Looking forward to Albania joining the EU apparently it won’t be long. I am certain they will make a positive contribution to the EU. On the other hand maybe not.