Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sat May 23, 2020 11:58 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Come on Sal, I'm sure that even you're grasp of the risks are better than you are suggesting here.

Apart from the fact that in the supermarket and garden centre (although not even to most avid gardener visits their garden centre every week), it's a fair bit easier to control the distancing between yourself and others in your immediate proximity and even IF you are close to or brush a person nearby, it's for a fleeting moment, not for several hours in any given day and in a confined space (classroom) and remember it's not just the kids, its all of the people that they may have been in contact with. ie other kids, family members, plus the people that they have been in contact with etc, etc.
You will be well aware that all the usual bugs spread like mad when school terms begin, just as the covid19 will.

The government keep on telling the teachers, unions etc that they are following the science but, when asked to provide detail on the science it doesn't happen ??

That's simply not true. Teacher's unions have been meeting with SAGE and other scientific advisers to discuss the science and next steps.

The basics of the science have also been touched on at a couple of daily briefings. My recollection is something like this:
1 - everybody should still be taking the recommended measures to minimise spread/risk.
2 - something like 1 in a couple of thousand at the very most currently has CV.
3 - the R0 number is decreasing - slowly, but decreasing. Certainly below 1. That 1 in a couple of thousand is dropping.
4 - not every child will return to school immediately. Those that do will be in small 'bubbles'.
5 - children are VERY, VERY unlikely to be ill with CV19, and statistically are almost certain not to be severely ill or die.
6 - whether children shed as effectively as adults is yet to be confirmed, but numerous studies suggest not.
7 - younger children are extremely unlikely to be mixing with anyone outside the immediate family unit, especially at the moment.

So taking all of the above into account, the odds of a child in the school having CV and of spreading it are very, very low. At very worst they may spread to one or two within a small cluster of children but it seems likely they're not actually that infectious and are far more likely to catch it from an adult. If another child does catch it and takes it home they're probably asymptomatic which seems to reduce their degree of shedding. And if a parent catches it, as long as they are observing social distancing, they shouldn't spread it and the odds of a young parent dying are vanishingly low unless there are serious underlying conditions or by some freak chance. Something like 350 under-45s have died so far through the peak.

Stay away from the elderly and vulnerable and the risks seem fairly insignificant. Of course there are exceptions. I know of a family with one child at risk due to a recent transplant and others with high-risk parents. Some may have grandparents in the family home. Each of these will need to make their own decisions and that's quite correct.

Teachers unions seems to want absolute guarantees, and that simply is not possible. We'd all love guarantees but at some point we're all going to have to go out and get on with it. What's the alternative? Close schools until we have a vaccine?

Of course a lot of the science depends on a percentage following the guidelines and we know that percentage is decreasing. All the models assume a certain number will ignore the restrictions. I just wonder if the scientists realise just how many fckwits are ignoring them.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 24, 2020 12:13 am  

Scarlet Pimpernell wrote:

I think he is merely quoting what was on Johnson’s twitter account which I think would mainly be read by his supporters. It would suggest therefore that these are the ones who need their bottoms wiping which looking at the average age of the membership is probably quite accurate.

That's quite the desperate leap in logic. The PM's twitter is very obviously followed by many beyond his supporters, including the entire spectrum of the media who broadcast the message from various angles. Case in point, King Street Cat, who - if he doesn't follow the PM account, has read the message somewhere and felt sufficiently motivated to try and mock it.

As for the elderly you disparagingly refer to, they are far less likely to be on twitter or indeed online than younger sections of the population. Any marketeer knows a twitter message goes overwhelmingly to younger sections of society.

Anyway, I must be mistaken, I was under the distinct impression from the certain sections of the media it was all far too confusing and we're all blithering idiots and therefore bear no personal responsibility for ignoring the restrictions.

Let me ask: do you think the message is confusing? Or do you need me to explain it first?

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 24, 2020 6:06 am  

it shows how well wren' knows people, plenty go to the garden centre every week, often more than once.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 24, 2020 7:32 am  

Cronus wrote:

Is 2 metres a little too challenging for you? Christ, they try to give you lefties some guidance and you still need your backsides wiping.

Perhaps you could follow the World Health Organisation recommendation, which is 1 metre. Would that make you happier?

I'm happy that I can measure 2 metres. In fact I could accurately measure 2.44 metres to within a millimetre the number of times I've had to measure up for signage.

There will be plenty of people who have no clue about what a metre is. There are still loads who still measure in feet, yards or hands! I'm merely pointing out the level of clarity our current government are operating at, and the fact they're almost treating it like a bit of fun. I don't know whether that infographic is going any further than social media. It's a joke if it is.

Anyway, for all your long winded tweets about how safe schools are for kids, Michael Gove's tweet yesterday (defending the indefensible Cummings) suggested it wasn't a crime to care for your wife and child. The government can't really throw a paddy when parents decide not to send their kids back to school until September. Cummings has created a monster with his infected jaunt to Durham. And as I've already said, the government have well and truly lost the dressing room.

And when you say "I just wonder if the scientists realise just how many fckwits are ignoring them." Do you include Dominic Cummings as one of those fckwits, or is it different for him?

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 24, 2020 9:45 am  

Cronus wrote:

That's simply not true. Teacher's unions have been meeting with SAGE and other scientific advisers to discuss the science and next steps.

The basics of the science have also been touched on at a couple of daily briefings. My recollection is something like this:
1 - everybody should still be taking the recommended measures to minimise spread/risk.
2 - something like 1 in a couple of thousand at the very most currently has CV.
3 - the R0 number is decreasing - slowly, but decreasing. Certainly below 1. That 1 in a couple of thousand is dropping.
4 - not every child will return to school immediately. Those that do will be in small 'bubbles'.
5 - children are VERY, VERY unlikely to be ill with CV19, and statistically are almost certain not to be severely ill or die.
6 - whether children shed as effectively as adults is yet to be confirmed, but numerous studies suggest not.
7 - younger children are extremely unlikely to be mixing with anyone outside the immediate family unit, especially at the moment.

So taking all of the above into account, the odds of a child in the school having CV and of spreading it are very, very low. At very worst they may spread to one or two within a small cluster of children but it seems likely they're not actually that infectious and are far more likely to catch it from an adult. If another child does catch it and takes it home they're probably asymptomatic which seems to reduce their degree of shedding. And if a parent catches it, as long as they are observing social distancing, they shouldn't spread it and the odds of a young parent dying are vanishingly low unless there are serious underlying conditions or by some freak chance. Something like 350 under-45s have died so far through the peak.

Stay away from the elderly and vulnerable and the risks seem fairly insignificant. Of course there are exceptions. I know of a family with one child at risk due to a recent transplant and others with high-risk parents. Some may have grandparents in the family home. Each of these will need to make their own decisions and that's quite correct.

Teachers unions seems to want absolute guarantees, and that simply is not possible. We'd all love guarantees but at some point we're all going to have to go out and get on with it. What's the alternative? Close schools until we have a vaccine?

Of course a lot of the science depends on a percentage following the guidelines and we know that percentage is decreasing. All the models assume a certain number will ignore the restrictions. I just wonder if the scientists realise just how many fckwits are ignoring them.

Much of your post centres on the risk to the kids going back to school and everyone would want them to be safe.
However, what about the teaches and support staff etc.

They most certainly could catch the virus from kids returning to school and kids are usually great "spreaders" of bugs and viruses.
I'm sure that like me, you have seen kids picking up all sorts when they return to school after the summer holidays or Christmas break ?

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 24, 2020 10:07 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Come on Sal, I'm sure that even you're grasp of the risks are better than you are suggesting here.

Apart from the fact that in the supermarket and garden centre (although not even to most avid gardener visits their garden centre every week), it's a fair bit easier to control the distancing between yourself and others in your immediate proximity and even IF you are close to or brush a person nearby, it's for a fleeting moment, not for several hours in any given day and in a confined space (classroom) and remember it's not just the kids, its all of the people that they may have been in contact with. ie other kids, family members, plus the people that they have been in contact with etc, etc.
You will be well aware that all the usual bugs spread like mad when school terms begin, just as the covid19 will.

The government keep on telling the teachers, unions etc that they are following the science but, when asked to provide detail on the science it doesn't happen ??

If it was so easy and so safe, you or I would say, there you go, you read the "proof" and then crack on but, Boris & Co just cannot be trusted. end of.

I come back to the point I made earlier - how many teachers have been infected as a result of the schools remaining open - if there had been above a handful the unions would have been screaming from the rooftops - this is not about kids this is the unions trying to regain lost ground simple as - you know as does most of the country.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 24, 2020 10:36 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I come back to the point I made earlier - how many teachers have been infected as a result of the schools remaining open - if there had been above a handful the unions would have been screaming from the rooftops - this is not about kids this is the unions trying to regain lost ground simple as - you know as does most of the country.

I know it doesnt answer your question, because as you know its impossible to find that out.
However
A teacher has died at the age of 35 after it is believed she contracted Covid-19, the school's principal has said in a letter to parents.
This was 10 days after lockdown

2 weeks ago ONS

At least 65 education sector workers with COVID-19 have died, new statistics show.

Data published today by the Office for National Statistics provides information on deaths involving COVID-19 across England and Wales, broken down by occupation.

It shows at least 65 education staff have died with coronavirus, of which 43 were women and 22 were men, as of April 20.

That includes 17 secondary school teachers, seven primary and nursery teachers, two SEND teachers, ten teaching assistants, six school lunchtime supervisors and school crossing patrols and two school secretaries.

However some of the occupation groups are generic (ie senior professionals of education establishments), so it’s unclear which education sector some of these staff worked in (see full table below).

The figures also include 10 higher education and 10 further education staff who have died with COVID-19.

The statistics solely look at the deceased’s occupation, it provides no further analysis – such as where the disease was caught



The rate of COVID-19-related deaths among teaching and educational professionals, which for the purposes of the data collection excludes TAs, educational support assistants, lunchtime and crossing patrols, school secretaries and advisers and inspectors, was 6.7 per 100,000 for men and 3.3 for women.

This is roughly the same rate as those classed as business and public service associate professionals (6.8 and 2.7) and corporate managers and directors (6.4 and 2.6), but much lower than those in elementary trades and related occupations (27.8 and 12.5) and those in textiles, printing and other skilled trades (24.6 and 7.0).

The ONS stated its analysis “does not prove conclusively that the observed rates of death involving Covid-19 are necessarily caused by differences in occupational exposure”.

They also said the findings could change as more deaths are registered. And while the findings were adjusted for age, they do not take other factors such as pre-existing health conditions or ethnicity into account

n a separate analysis also published today,the ONS created an estimate of potential exposure to coronavirus for UK occupations, based on figures from a United States study last year.

It stated that workers in the education sector have “lower exposure to disease than healthcare workers, but primary and nursery education teaching professionals, and special needs education professionals work in close proximity with pupils, and are more likely to be exposed to disease than secondary or higher education teaching professionals
The findings come as the government today set out its plans to reopen schools to more pupils from June 1, at the earliest.
New Department for Education guidance released this evening set out how ministers believe schools can reopen safely, including capping class sizes at 15 pupils. However the government admitted that primary pupils will be unable to observe social distancing measures.
The government’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, said at the daily coronavirus briefing today that teachers and parents are “understandably concerned about individual risk” of schools reopening, and that will be something “we’re consulting on with the profession”.
He added it was “very important” to have a “proper debate to make sure people understand that we can do many things to reduce the risk”.
Overall, the ONS statistics showed that men in low-skilled jobs were almost four times more likely to die from coronavirus than men in professional occupations

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 24, 2020 10:45 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

how many teachers have been infected as a result of the schools remaining open

The school where I'm based has an enrolment of about 2,100 kids this year. Staff members usually run well into the hundreds. Do you know how many kids and staff members are currently attending? 10 to 15, with about 6 staff members.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 24, 2020 4:22 pm  

amazing isnt it, we are suddenly surrounded by school teachers, care workers.. I can't wait until they say Churches should open... any political point scoring opportunity for the lunatic left. If MangePuss 1&2 and the other idiots spent 1/5 of the time WORKING as they do spouting shoite on here they may just have a valid opinion.

it is amazing how we ever managed an economy full of these work shy individua...oh, hang on, it is because WE pay for their high ideals!

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sun May 24, 2020 4:33 pm  

Another well reasoned argument