Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:47 pm  

“I believe it is clearly in our national interest to remain a member of the European Union”.

Theresa May
25 April 2016

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:02 pm  

POSTL wrote:

Ive never heard of the Leave Alliance to be fair, and I'm not going to argue with either side of the argument re leaving on WTO rules because I just don't know, however, I do find it a bit OTT to say that the 5th largest economy in the world could not survive on WTO but hey. I have said on previous posts that I am absolutely not against a deal with the EU which would keep us in a customs union and a trade trade agreement, that is why we joined what was the Common Market in the first place.

They look to be a pragmatic pro-Brexit group, whose attitude broadly seems to be ‘we won, let’s not mess it up’.

I am worried about a no deal exit. We might survive, but we wouldn’t come through remotely unscathed, imo.

I think, finally, we’re inching towards May’s deal or delay. If the latter, well, then what? I think that is what is worrying the more realistic Brexiteers. If you’re 20 points up with 2 minutes to go, you don’t try to get the match abandoned! Even if the ref pings you slightly harshly for a forward pass.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:43 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

They look to be a pragmatic pro-Brexit group, whose attitude broadly seems to be ‘we won, let’s not mess it up’.

I am worried about a no deal exit. We might survive, but we wouldn’t come through remotely unscathed, imo.

I think, finally, we’re inching towards May’s deal or delay. If the latter, well, then what? I think that is what is worrying the more realistic Brexiteers. If you’re 20 points up with 2 minutes to go, you don’t try to get the match abandoned! Even if the ref pings you slightly harshly for a forward pass.

Absolutely agree with what you say. If May can get the right clarifications on the backstop which is important and this seems to be the main sticking point I really hope it goes through and we can then move on. Lets also be realistic, its as much in Irelands interest as it is ours.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:52 pm  

tigertot wrote:

“I believe it is clearly in our national interest to remain a member of the European Union”.

Theresa May
25 April 2016

Your point is ??, she has never hidden the fact that she was/is a remainer. I give her credit for that in taking on what is and was always going to be a poison chalice, whether she's doing a good jobs of it is a whole new chat.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:17 pm  

POSTL wrote:

Absolutely agree with what you say. If May can get the right clarifications on the backstop which is important and this seems to be the main sticking point I really hope it goes through and we can then move on. Lets also be realistic, its as much in Irelands interest as it is ours.

How are important are those clarifications though, really?

If there’s a lack of trust that the EU will act in good faith, then what’s the value of more reassurances?

And if you want a backstop, what’s the point of a time-limited one or one that either side can end unilaterally? You’re effectively saying you’re willing to proceed to the next stage with the issue unresolved.

To me it’s pretty binary, there either is or isn’t a backstop. Any compromise will be window dressing. Something has to give, and if the alternative to May’s deal is delay rather than no deal, the ERG have to gamble it all or get it over the line in what they regard as an imperfect state. I’ve got very little sympathy for them, as May has given them most of what they want, and as much as was realistically possible, which can’t said for most of the rest of us.

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:39 am  

I’ve been working on no deal preparations for the NHS Trust I work in for several months now. The amount of complexity is quite mind boggling. The effects of “no deal” wouldn’t necessarily be felt immediately on March 29th/30th but would most definitely be felt in the weeks, months and years that followed. All trusts have been testing various scenarios affecting nine separate themes and each presents problems that have no easy answers. If anyone thinks “no deal” is no big thing they’re either ignorant or lying.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:10 am  

Bullseye wrote:

I’ve been working on no deal preparations for the NHS Trust I work in for several months now. The amount of complexity is quite mind boggling. The effects of “no deal” wouldn’t necessarily be felt immediately on March 29th/30th but would most definitely be felt in the weeks, months and years that followed. All trusts have been testing various scenarios affecting nine separate themes and each presents problems that have no easy answers. If anyone thinks “no deal” is no big thing they’re either ignorant or lying.

I worked for the NHS for 37 years and have been through countless scares that have never come to fruition, the millennium bug, the last stock pile was a few years back when bird flu was predicted which proved a total waste of money, but I'm sure the NHS has to be prepared for any eventuality.

I could see issues in the weeks and months after we leave of course I can, but years ?? I find it hard to believe and I'm sure there must be massive incompetence if that were to happen, however, I am just not as enlighted as you are or as you say I might just be ignorant.

In my opinion, we will not leave without a deal there is simply no appetite in the commons for it and unless the general public as a whole knows different then its just not going to happen when we have the second referendum
.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:31 am  

POSTL wrote:

In my opinion, we will not leave without a deal there is simply no appetite in the commons for it and unless the general public as a whole knows different then its just not going to happen when we have the second referendum.

I tend to agree - so that being the case, why has the PM consistently used it as a threat, wilfully ignoring the impact on business, institutions and the economy? It's bordering on criminal negligence to persistently deny MP's the opportunity to vote, in an attempt to force through a deal that was rejected just a few weeks ago with the largest majority in the history of parliament.

I'm now up to my umpteenth No Deal Contingency Plan document on behalf of either NHS Trusts or LA's - I have now started to answer the inevitable final question, "What can the LA/Trust do to help you?" with, "Provide us with a functioning government."

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:33 am  

Mild Rover wrote:

How are important are those clarifications though, really?

If there’s a lack of trust that the EU will act in good faith, then what’s the value of more reassurances?

And if you want a backstop, what’s the point of a time-limited one or one that either side can end unilaterally? You’re effectively saying you’re willing to proceed to the next stage with the issue unresolved.

To me it’s pretty binary, there either is or isn’t a backstop. Any compromise will be window dressing. Something has to give, and if the alternative to May’s deal is delay rather than no deal, the ERG have to gamble it all or get it over the line in what they regard as an imperfect state. I’ve got very little sympathy for them, as May has given them most of what they want, and as much as was realistically possible, which can’t said for most of the rest of us.

Does the lack of trust not stem from the EU in requiring the backstop in the first place mate ??, the lack of a border is just so important for the economy between the two countries and more importantly continued peace, somebody said in an earlier post the they were playing with that peace process and I couldn't agree more .As it stands the backstop is not acceptable to the DUP as they would feel distance from the UK and I believe the republican communities see the lack of no border as there link to Republic and both needs to be respected.

I say it again its just a shame on such an important issue that the two nations can not come to an agreement themselves.

I have agreed with you in a previous post on the subject of agreeing the deal, if the backstop and the other proposals put forward by Labour can be resolved which I'm sure it can unless the EU dig there heals in then the deal in my opinion should be agreed and move on.

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:00 am  

POSTL wrote:

I could see issues in the weeks and months after we leave of course I can, but years ?? I find it hard to believe and I'm sure there must be massive incompetence if that were to happen, however, I am just not as enlighted as you are or as you say I might just be ignorant.

Not massive incompetence - just a consequence of Brexit.

Reduced numbers of EU staff across all parts of NHS – over years that will have an impact. Working in the UK may become less attractive because of devaluation of the pound. A significant proportion of health and social care workers come from the EU. The NHS already has 100k staff vacancies including 40k nurse vacancies. Many posts are very difficult to fill now. What will it be like in years to come?

Reduced numbers of EU students at UK teaching hospitals would be enough to making them nonviable which would have a knock on effect on training UK staff too.

Due to the large number of vacancies and ongoing issues with recruitment Trusts would need to redeploy senior clinically qualified managers to fill gaps in operational roles. Reduction in GPs and Health Care Professionals working in Primary/Community Care means that more patients are coming into Emergency Departments for treatment of minor ailments and illnesses. No wonder they want to get rid of the 4 hour target. There may be far longer waiting times ahead.

Following the UK’s exit from the EU the prices paid by the NHS for imported medication are likely to increase. In order to save money and maintain services to patients, cheaper alternatives would need to be sourced GPs would be asked to prescribe these lower cost drugs. However, patients may not respond to the alternative medication and re-attendances may increase putting extra burden on staff and budgets.

With the UK leaving the EU, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) will likely see a dramatic increase in the number of requests for UK licences. MHRA will be stretched by the extra workload and as a result the UK approval process for new drugs would get much slower.

Some companies may threaten not to get their drugs licensed in the UK stating that it is easier and quicker to get a license via the European Medicines Agency (EMA) as this authorises use across the whole of the EU providing a much larger market for their products. If this situation is not resolved many of these new drugs will not be available for patients in the UK meaning poorer care for UK patients.

I could go on, these are just a few of the longer term effects. The short and medium term effects are there too.