[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:03 pm  

POSTL wrote:

It wasn't just the ERG in my opinion, it was the way May went about it with this gung ho attitude, which caused the ERG on one side and Anna Sourpuss's group on the other and she managed to appease neither with her deal as well as alienating all the other parties. She had to be taken to court to enable a meaningful vote in the commons, which for me was so unbelievably undemocratic. I just wished with this being such a massive decision for this country why we couldn't have entered the negotiations as a cross party group of both Tory & Labour.

I still don't think no deal should be taken off the table just as a bargaining tool, yes as has been reported we will be much worse off than the EU as a whole but most if not all the other 27 will be worse off to differing degrees. The country that will be the most worst off apart from us are our nearest and dearest the Irish as their economy is linked to ours, we never gave them a loan when the euro crashed out of the goodness our hearts. the main sticking point we are led to believe is the backstop as we have discussed.

It may be a stupid analogy but we have Nuclear Weapons, do we want to use them hell no, would we be worse off if we did hell yes. Hopefully just an insurance as the no deal is now. I know that's a bit extreme but the only one I could think of at short notice, so don't shoot me down please

It seems simple doesn’t it?

I think the issue, ultimately, is that May and Corbyn don’t like each other (which they maybe could have put aside for national good - I doubt May and Arlene Foster are planning a girl’s weekend at a spa anytime soon), and worse they don’t trust each other. Even a little bit. Also they’d both face major backlashes from their members if they started cosying up.

I think the nuclear option metaphor works pretty well! My only caveat is that there isn’t a deadline that you have to launch a first strike by. May has to press the button or withdraw the threat by the end of the month. Or extend the agony.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:14 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

It seems simple doesn’t it?

I think the issue, ultimately, is that May and Corbyn don’t like each other (which they maybe could have put aside for national good - I doubt May and Arlene Foster are planning a girl’s weekend at a spa anytime soon), and worse they don’t trust each other. Even a little bit. Also they’d both face major backlashes from their members if they started cosying up.

I think the nuclear option metaphor works pretty well! My only caveat is that there isn’t a deadline that you have to launch a first strike by. May has to press the button or withdraw the threat by the end of the month. Or extend the agony.

I don't think we should withdraw the treat, agreed most of the 27 might not have as much to lose as the UK but it just might be enough to help us get past the post with a deal that the commons can agree to.

I just wonder how much it will cost the UK tax payer to extend the agony just for a couple of months

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:27 pm  

POSTL wrote:

I don't think we should withdraw the treat, agreed most of the 27 might not have as much to lose as the UK but it just might be enough to help us get past the post with a deal that the commons can agree to.

I just wonder how much it will cost the UK tax payer to extend the agony just for a couple of months

Fair enough. Would you keep it on the table as a bluff and withdraw it at the very last moment? Which isn’t far away now. Or actually go for it?

The other leverage May has is the threat of no-no-deal - that could push the ERG to accept the deal, albeit unhappily. Peel off a few from Labour with investments in their areas, maybe redirecting cash from the DUP’s pot if they’re not going to support the government. And then we get on with stage 2. Yay!

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:03 pm  

So, Tom Watson appears to have 5hit the bed somewhat.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:44 am  

Mild Rover wrote:

Fair enough. Would you keep it on the table as a bluff and withdraw it at the very last moment? Which isn’t far away now. Or actually go for it?

The other leverage May has is the threat of no-no-deal - that could push the ERG to accept the deal, albeit unhappily. Peel off a few from Labour with investments in their areas, maybe redirecting cash from the DUP’s pot if they’re not going to support the government. And then we get on with stage 2. Yay!

They keep saying that any deals with the EU is always at the last minute so I'm still hopeful, I'm more worried about getting it through the commons to be fair with all the internal politics.

I would leave no deal on the table, I really can't see a no deal scenario, it's a lose lose for all sides. We only hear of the UK side from business etc warning of the possible outcome, surely the same pressure is coming on the other 27. I just can't believe the Irish, French and Germans etc are not that bothered. It's not that long ago the Irish and the Greeks were absolutely skint. I say stop jockeying about, stop playing games and get the deal done on all sides.

My worry is that now that, "Everything is still on the table Labour" have come down on a new referendum side that no matter the deal, Labour will now join the Lib Dems, SNP etc and plumb for another referendum. If that is the case and if remain is to be on the ballot paper then the only other option should be no deal, in or out IMO

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:32 pm  

POSTL wrote:

They keep saying that any deals with the EU is always at the last minute so I'm still hopeful, I'm more worried about getting it through the commons to be fair with all the internal politics.

I would leave no deal on the table, I really can't see a no deal scenario, it's a lose lose for all sides. We only hear of the UK side from business etc warning of the possible outcome, surely the same pressure is coming on the other 27. I just can't believe the Irish, French and Germans etc are not that bothered. It's not that long ago the Irish and the Greeks were absolutely skint. I say stop jockeying about, stop playing games and get the deal done on all sides.

My worry is that now that, "Everything is still on the table Labour" have come down on a new referendum side that no matter the deal, Labour will now join the Lib Dems, SNP etc and plumb for another referendum. If that is the case and if remain is to be on the ballot paper then the only other option should be no deal, in or out IMO

Those last minute deals tend to be addendums and clarifications, which previously the hardliners have said wouldn’t be enough. However, there’s maybe a few signs that they’re thawing as the clock ticks down. They’ll reiterate that it is temporary, but without a specific time limit (perhaps an expectation of within X years), and there’ll be no unilateral exit mechanism. And that’ll either be enough or it won’t. Despite the record defeat last time, the unappealing prospects of delay or no deal might be enough. Maybe.

I doubt there’s anywhere near the same level of interest elsewhere in the EU. Which isn’t to say they aren’t bothered. But imagine it was Spain leaving instead of us - I doubt Spexit would be affecting our politics or dominating our news in remotely the same way. It’d be covered, and there’d be concern about the impact, but it’d be a bit more distant, a bit less scary and frankly I think we’d be saying, they made their choice, it is their problem. We’d be demanding our elderly emigrants rights were unaffected, solidifying our sovereignty in Gibraltar and backing the Portuguese if there were any border issues, most likely.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:49 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

Those last minute deals tend to be addendums and clarifications, which previously the hardliners have said wouldn’t be enough. However, there’s maybe a few signs that they’re thawing as the clock ticks down. They’ll reiterate that it is temporary, but without a specific time limit (perhaps an expectation of within X years), and there’ll be no unilateral exit mechanism. And that’ll either be enough or it won’t. Despite the record defeat last time, the unappealing prospects of delay or no deal might be enough. Maybe.

I doubt there’s anywhere near the same level of interest elsewhere in the EU. Which isn’t to say they aren’t bothered. But imagine it was Spain leaving instead of us - I doubt Spexit would be affecting our politics or dominating our news in remotely the same way. It’d be covered, and there’d be concern about the impact, but it’d be a bit more distant, a bit less scary and frankly I think we’d be saying, they made their choice, it is their problem. We’d be demanding our elderly emigrants rights were unaffected, solidifying our sovereignty in Gibraltar and backing the Portuguese if there were any border issues, most likely.

To be fair and honest mate can't disagree with any of that. lets just hope it goes through this time and me move on, think the majority of the country would breath a sigh of relief.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 03, 2019 1:34 pm  

POSTL wrote:

To be fair and honest mate can't disagree with any of that. lets just hope it goes through this time and me move on, think the majority of the country would breath a sigh of relief.

Yep - I know I would, anyway.

[Pumpetypump]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Mar 05, 2019 12:32 pm  

POSTL wrote:

think the majority of the country would breath a sigh of relief.

With respect, I think your view on what the majority want is a little leave-centric. The people who would breathe a sigh of relief are those that voted to leave (the diminishing percentage who haven't subsequently changed their mind that is). The idea that the "I'm bored of it now, lets just get on with it" view is the majority is probably wishful thinking, and actually is a mindset almost exclusive to to the leave demographic.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Mar 05, 2019 12:52 pm  

Pumpetypump wrote:

With respect, I think your view on what the majority want is a little leave-centric. The people who would breathe a sigh of relief are those that voted to leave (the diminishing percentage who haven't subsequently changed their mind that is). The idea that the "I'm bored of it now, lets just get on with it" view is the majority is probably wishful thinking, and actually is a mindset almost exclusive to to the leave demographic.

To be fair I cannot argue with what you say, our point on here for the most part are peoples take on things, as you quite rightly point out I might be looking at it from a leave point of view, however, I have heard individuals not just leave voters on the box saying we have had the vote just now get on with it, so that other issues that should be priority "Social Care" etc can. But that does not mean as you say that the majority have the same mindset.