Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Mar 05, 2019 12:55 pm  

Pumpetypump wrote:

With respect, I think your view on what the majority want is a little leave-centric. The people who would breathe a sigh of relief are those that voted to leave (the diminishing percentage who haven't subsequently changed their mind that is). The idea that the "I'm bored of it now, lets just get on with it" view is the majority is probably wishful thinking, and actually is a mindset almost exclusive to to the leave demographic.

Can I ask how you come to the view that the people who voted leave are a diminishing percentage ??.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:06 pm  

Pumpetypump wrote:

With respect, I think your view on what the majority want is a little leave-centric. The people who would breathe a sigh of relief are those that voted to leave (the diminishing percentage who haven't subsequently changed their mind that is). The idea that the "I'm bored of it now, lets just get on with it" view is the majority is probably wishful thinking, and actually is a mindset almost exclusive to to the leave demographic.

Almost, maybe, but not quite.

I voted remain, and in the unlikely event of another referendum, I would again.

But my/our side lost, and might well do again. I doubt remain would win decisively in any case.

It’s not so much just that I’m bored with it (although I definitely am), it’s just that eventually we have to move beyond this. Ultimately, this bad deal is better than no deal, and delay... well, it just delays things to no obvious end.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:24 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

Almost, maybe, but not quite.

I voted remain, and in the unlikely event of another referendum, I would again.

But my/our side lost, and might well do again. I doubt remain would win decisively in any case.

It’s not so much just that I’m bored with it (although I definitely am), it’s just that eventually we have to move beyond this. Ultimately, this bad deal is better than no deal, and delay... well, it just delays things to no obvious end.

Indeed
At some point our elected members are going to have to make a decision.
Mrs May and her closest allies are still holding the metaphorical gun to the head of all of the MP's, with "my way or no deal" and we do look like the "bad deal" may well be preferable to "no deal", oh the irony.

We all need to hope that the negotiators charged with securing a decent trade deal are somewhat better than the clowns who have sorted out the withdrawal agreement.

We've been led along like donkeys on Blackpool beech, following the EU27's path all of the way.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:25 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

Almost, maybe, but not quite.

I voted remain, and in the unlikely event of another referendum, I would again.

But my/our side lost, and might well do again. I doubt remain would win decisively in any case.

It’s not so much just that I’m bored with it (although I definitely am), it’s just that eventually we have to move beyond this. Ultimately, this bad deal is better than no deal, and delay... well, it just delays things to no obvious end.

I was reading a piece in the Financial Times (not my usual read, free in an airport lounge) the reporter said if there were a peoples vote (Referendum) that remain might just win this time, this is because there are a whole host of young voters that weren't eligible to vote in 2016 and it is thought the majority would vote to remain, however, it would probably still be a close result which wouldn't achieve anything apart from alienating the population further.

He voted to remain and as you would do so again but to what end. his opinion was that the politicians need to get on and sort it.

[Pumpetypump]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:26 pm  

POSTL wrote:

Can I ask how you come to the view that the people who voted leave are a diminishing percentage ??.

Two main reasons. Firstly, because most polling (yes I know polls have a bad reputation) shows the majority now want to remain. And the lead for remain appears to be consistently higher than before the referendum. These are polls not just from remainer organisations but also non partisan organisations such as yougov, so they have a degree of credibility.

Secondly it's just a case of basic changes in demographics. Hundreds of thousands of leave voting elderly are now dead, whereas there is an influx of young people (typically but not exclusively remainers), who are now old enough to vote.

On balance, I can't see how leave could be the majority view any more. I accept it's far from certain though and I am, of course, not a neutral observer.

[Pumpetypump]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:30 pm  

POSTL wrote:

He voted to remain and as you would do so again but to what end.

From my perspective, the long game as someone who is passionately pro-EU would be to accept a second referendum loss (it would break my heart but I'd accept the result), but then join the party and organisations that then campaigned on a manifesto of joining the EU. There's nothing more democratic than dusting yourself off and continuing to fight for what you believe.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:34 pm  

Pumpetypump wrote:

Two main reasons. Firstly, because most polling (yes I know polls have a bad reputation) shows the majority now want to remain. And the lead for remain appears to be consistently higher than before the referendum. These are polls not just from remainer organisations but also non partisan organisations such as yougov, so they have a degree of credibility.

Secondly it's just a case of basic changes in demographics. Hundreds of thousands of leave voting elderly are now dead, whereas there is an influx of young people (typically but not exclusively remainers), who are now old enough to vote.

On balance, I can't see how leave could be the majority view any more. I accept it's far from certain though and I am, of course, not a neutral observer.

What do you think will happen if there is a second referendum and "remain" win by a small (between 1-2%) margin.

Would the result of a second referendum be any more valid than the first time around and just how do you think the original 52% would react (excluding those that have passed away).

I voted remain but, I'm not comfortable with the second referendum at all and just how long would the referendum take and just as important, what questions should be on the ballot paper. Mrs May's deal or Remain.
Mrs Mays deal or No deal ?? it's not right

As for the elderly dying off and youngsters maybe voting to remain. IIRC, it was the apathy of the young (along with various other reasons) that "allowed" for a Leave result first time round.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:43 pm  

Pumpetypump wrote:

Two main reasons. Firstly, because most polling (yes I know polls have a bad reputation) shows the majority now want to remain. And the lead for remain appears to be consistently higher than before the referendum. These are polls not just from remainer organisations but also non partisan organisations such as yougov, so they have a degree of credibility.

Secondly it's just a case of basic changes in demographics. Hundreds of thousands of leave voting elderly are now dead, whereas there is an influx of young people (typically but not exclusively remainers), who are now old enough to vote.

On balance, I can't see how leave could be the majority view any more. I accept it's far from certain though and I am, of course, not a neutral observer.

you answered your own question re the polls,
I really can't and won't agree that hundreds of thousands of leave voters have died in the last 2 years, give it another few years and we will all be dead I assume that no remain voters have popped their clogs in the last two years. However, I have mentioned an article in a previous post that does mention the influx of young people that didn't have a vote in 2016 might possibly sway the remain vote, but would still possibly be close. However, with all due respect its all mights and maybe's and does not constitute another divisive referendum in my opinion.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:50 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

What do you think will happen if there is a second referendum and "remain" win by a small (between 1-2%) margin.

Would the result of a second referendum be any more valid than the first time around and just how do you think the original 52% would react (excluding those that have passed away).

I voted remain but, I'm not comfortable with the second referendum at all and just how long would the referendum take and just as important, what questions should be on the ballot paper. Mrs May's deal or Remain.
Mrs Mays deal or No deal ?? it's not right

As for the elderly dying off and youngsters maybe voting to remain. IIRC, it was the apathy of the young (along with various other reasons) that "allowed" for a Leave result first time round.

I do mostly agree mate. Not sure about the apathy of the young voters. The question I have "Is Mays deal that bad", apart from the backstop, is it not a deal that both the majority of both leave and remain voters could live with ??.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Tue Mar 05, 2019 4:07 pm  

POSTL wrote:

I do mostly agree mate. Not sure about the apathy of the young voters. The question I have "Is Mays deal that bad", apart from the backstop, is it not a deal that both the majority of both leave and remain voters could live with ??.

Apart from the backstop, it's somewhere in the middle.
Too hard for Remain voters and too soft for Leave voters.

As for apathy among young voters, you bet there was.
Despite this being the biggest "threat" to their futures and with most to lose (or gain), only 36% of 18 -24 year olds bothered to cast a vote and when you consider that the overall turnout was over 70%, this is appalling.

Ultimately, they (the younger generation) will endure any changes for the longest amount of time.
If Farage was right, they will have a better future than their parents / grandparents but, if he was wrong...……….