Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:39 am  

Mild Rover wrote:

I like how the Brexit Secretary is trying to frame the EU’s restatement of a consistent position as re-running old arguments.

Desperation, denial, or does he just not get it?

Can you imagine if the EU tried to renegotiate this deal on one narrow point, without offering any concessions in return? There’d be absolute outrage. But this big unwieldy behemoth is able get itself aligned behind one position, while we exploit our supposed agility by running repeatedly into well signposted traps of our own design. And still we’re blaming them.

It is so embarrassing we are an absolute laughing stock, why would the EU give way let me think now,
They won't negotiate because
They don't want us to leave as we are one of the highest contributors.
Might give other EU countries the same idea
Our negotiating position is weak as they know we have absolutely no stomach for a no deal.
If it goes to a second referendum remain might just win.

They will negotiate because
erm let me think

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:16 pm  

POSTL wrote:

It is so embarrassing we are an absolute laughing stock, why would the EU give way let me think now,
They won't negotiate because
They don't want us to leave as we are one of the highest contributors.
Might give other EU countries the same idea
Our negotiating position is weak as they know we have absolutely no stomach for a no deal.
If it goes to a second referendum remain might just win.

They will negotiate because
erm let me think

Ironically, the only way that the EU will move is, if they believe that it's going to be no deal.
We should had said that we are leaving on 29th March with no deal unless we got "what we wanted".

This would have put a whole different focus on the negotiations, especially as there would be no divorce payment with no deal.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:04 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Ironically, the only way that the EU will move is, if they believe that it's going to be no deal.
We should had said that we are leaving on 29th March with no deal unless we got "what we wanted".

This would have put a whole different focus on the negotiations, especially as there would be no divorce payment with no deal.

Think you could be wrong about the payment.

We are obliged to a payment regardless of the deal struck. Unless we wish to become pariahs, a bit like North Korea as John Major pointed out, non payment isn't an option.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:51 pm  

Ovavoo wrote:

Think you could be wrong about the payment.

We are obliged to a payment regardless of the deal struck. Unless we wish to become pariahs, a bit like North Korea as John Major pointed out, non payment isn't an option.

You might be right, this is the 39 billion the amount we agreed with the EU as our commitments that we signed up for up until 2020. We could refuse to pay it if we leave without a deal as we shouldn't then be tied into the European courts, however, they (the EU) could take us to the international court which they probably would.

On top of that there might be other payments in the divorce bill for example pensions.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:17 pm  

Ovavoo wrote:

Think you could be wrong about the payment.

We are obliged to a payment regardless of the deal struck. Unless we wish to become pariahs, a bit like North Korea as John Major pointed out, non payment isn't an option.

My bad.
I foolishly believed Domonic Raab, who said that we wouldn't pay unless there was a deal.
Politicians eh

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:41 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Ironically, the only way that the EU will move is, if they believe that it's going to be no deal.
We should had said that we are leaving on 29th March with no deal unless we got "what we wanted".

This would have put a whole different focus on the negotiations, especially as there would be no divorce payment with no deal.

I couldn't agree with you more, if you look back at my previous posts I have repeatedly said we should not take it off the table, why would you. Of course I wouldn't want to use it, however, I feel it would be perfect for these backstop negotiations, I really don't know what else we can use as a negotiating tool.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:13 pm  

I still have an issue with democracy. If you wanted to arrive at the best solution to a problem how would you achieve it?
1.Would you ask everyone in the country,irrespective of intelligence or education?
2. Would you allow people with a priveleged background and/ or wealth have more of a say?
3. Would you allow people with expertise and intelligence have more of a say?
4. Would you give up on democracy altogether?

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:53 pm  

silver2 wrote:

I still have an issue with democracy. If you wanted to arrive at the best solution to a problem how would you achieve it?
1.Would you ask everyone in the country,irrespective of intelligence or education?
2. Would you allow people with a priveleged background and/ or wealth have more of a say?
3. Would you allow people with expertise and intelligence have more of a say?
4. Would you give up on democracy altogether?

The clever ones are supposed to be the elected members, not those who voted for them.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:07 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Ironically, the only way that the EU will move is, if they believe that it's going to be no deal.
We should had said that we are leaving on 29th March with no deal unless we got "what we wanted".

This would have put a whole different focus on the negotiations, especially as there would be no divorce payment with no deal.

Finally we agree.

I've said this all along. The country hit hardest by no deal would not be the UK, but the Republic of Ireland. They know and we know it, but none of us can be seen to be using the Irish situation as a gambling chip. This is precisely why we've seen the RoI taking a rather unconvincing and utterly illogical hard line.

That's without taking into account the devastating impact across the rest of the EU. No deal is not a good thing for anyone.

The EU simply cannot be seen to throw the RoI off a cliff. In an already fractious EU, they can't risk further weakness or advocate damage to its members. They will have to move. You know how we keep hearing experienced politicians telling us the EU always blinks late? I'm of the view that's why. It's also why we've seen certain EU leaders losing their sh=t. They can't say it, but the threat of a hard Irish border and the impact on RoI is what it all hangs on. Especially when it concerns a member nation that has hardly been enthusiastically EU in the past.

I could be wrong, but I hope not.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:01 am  

Cronus wrote:

Snip.

Although the RoI will be hit hard by Brexit and would be hit even harder by a no-deal Brexit, I don’t see much of a case for it having a bigger impact than on the UK.

In terms of trade, the UK accounts for 22% of RoI’s imports and 12% of their exports.

The EU accounts for 53% of the UK’s imports and 44% of our exports.

I terms of the impact of a hard-border re-igniting conflict, Great Britain already subsidises (for want of a better word) NI more than the UK does the EU - and that’s not per capita, that’s absolute amount. That number will only go up if the Troubles return.

You say that Ireland’s position is unconvincing and illogical, but surely that’s even more true for ours. I think our position has been based too much on what Brexiteers wish was true, rather than what is true, and that is a deeply flawed approach to negotiation.

I know that there’s more distrust of experts than there used to be, especially on the Brexit side of the argument, and it is wise to think both about what people say and why they are saying it. However, you’re now suggesting that we trust the judgement of ‘experienced politicians’, some of whom suggest that the EU might blink. I assume these are people like David Davis, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg? The same preening, feeble-minded wazzocks who got us in this mess.