[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:40 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Blair was further right than Cameron.

Nonsense.

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:43 am  

Anyway. Back on Brexit it now looks like May’s deal is probably not going to get through the House of Commons. With that outcome it leaves either “no deal” or another referendum IMO. Any other analysis out there?

Labour's wish to force a general election seems very unlikely, the numbers don't stack up.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:49 am  

Bullseye wrote:

Anyway. Back on Brexit it now looks like May’s deal is probably not going to get through the House of Commons. With that outcome it leaves either “no deal” or another referendum IMO. Any other analysis out there?

Labour's wish to force a general election seems very unlikely, the numbers don't stack up.

Labour is/has been on the fence waiting for a Tory implosion, which may well happen.
However, they are also peddling the line "wait until we have chance to negotiate with the EU" which, assuming that they even manage to win a General Election (following a possible Tory collapse) may not even be possible.

Ironically, the possibility of a GE may well save the deal, with Tories (and some Labour MP's) voting for Mrs Mays deal, rather than risk going to the polls.

A "peoples" vote is just another stalling tactic and shouldn't ever be allowed to take place.

Sometimes in life you get what you deserve and for all the lying, misleading campaigning (from both sides), "we" probably deserve the mess thatr we now appear to have.


Of course, Mr Rees-Mogg & Co, who have sufficient wealth to "ride" any storm or down turn in the ecconomy, will be pushing and hoping for a "no deal", while the rest of us suffer even further at the hands of the Tory elite.

Again, the lack of honesty , transparency and arrogance (Mr Cameron take note) in all of this is quite appalling and leves a very bitter aftertaste.

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:27 pm  

No Tory will vote for a motion of no confidence in the Government. I doubt the DUP will either as they don’t want a Corbyn led Labour Party in charge. So I agree that the chances of Labour getting into government and negotiating with the EU are next to nothing.

The only way forward I can see if May’s deal doesn’t go through is Parliament asking for another referendum. There’s no majority in Parliament wanting a "no deal" and therefore I think that won't be allowed to happen unless it wins a majority in a referendum.

A lot of this comes down to the Leave vote not being clearly defined from the off. There was never a clearly agreed definition of what it meant at the time of the referendum. There are many examples during the campaign of the likes of Hannan and Farage promoting the examples of Norway and Switzerland as examples to follow. Once the result was in that seemed to evolve into something else.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:45 pm  

Bullseye wrote:

No Tory will vote for a motion of no confidence in the Government. I doubt the DUP will either as they don’t want a Corbyn led Labour Party in charge. So I agree that the chances of Labour getting into government and negotiating with the EU are next to nothing.

The only way forward I can see if May’s deal doesn’t go through is Parliament asking for another referendum. There’s no majority in Parliament wanting a "no deal" and therefore I think that won't be allowed to happen unless it wins a majority in a referendum.

A lot of this comes down to the Leave vote not being clearly defined from the off. There was never a clearly agreed definition of what it meant at the time of the referendum. There are many examples during the campaign of the likes of Hannan and Farage promoting the examples of Norway and Switzerland as examples to follow. Once the result was in that seemed to evolve into something else.

Another referendum is utterly pointless.
It may well produce a result slightly in favour of remain but, then what, do we go for best of 3 or best of 5 ?

With the population so evenly split the issue will just rumble on and on (much as it has done since the 70's when we joined the "common market").

At this point we should just take our medicine and get on with life.
We will probably be poorer in the sohrt/medium term but, everyone knew this when the referendum took place.

Happy days

[Bullseye]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:19 pm  

The problem you have is that Parliament will be unable to make a decision. Are you saying that if Parliament doesn't vote for May's deal it should accept it anyway or leave without a deal when that wasn't mentioned during the referendum campaign? Only a minority of MPs want a no deal Brexit.

I disagree completely with your last point about everyone knowing they'd be poorer in the short or medium term. They did not. A lot were sold the idea that we would be better off completely and able to take advantage of the single market, do trade deals abroad, secure borders and spend £350m a week more on the NHS. There was nothing on the bus saying "only after an undefined period where you'll all be worse off".

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:36 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

We will probably be poorer in the sohrt/medium term but, everyone knew this when the referendum took place.

No way. I didn't hear a single Brexit person say this. In fact literally every member of the public I heard talked about stopping a flood of immigrants & taking back control. The EU needs us more than we need them. The sun will always shine on a Sunday & you will be able to go on holiday & leave your front door open.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:55 pm  

tigertot wrote:

No way. I didn't hear a single Brexit person say this. In fact literally every member of the public I heard talked about stopping a flood of immigrants & taking back control. The EU needs us more than we need them. The sun will always shine on a Sunday & you will be able to go on holiday & leave your front door open.

So you missed all the "project fear" stuff ? really ?

As for the EU needing us more than we need them. The 500bn (very approximate) trade in both directions sounds really equal, until you break it down a little.
Yes, we have roughly this amount in revenue from the EU but, theiir share is split accross multiple counrtries.
Of course, they dont want to lose any business (German Cars seemed to be the favourite of Farage & Co) but, I think that the UK has way more to lose.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:39 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

So you missed all the "project fear" stuff ? really ?

I said no Brexiteer was suggesting we would be worse off. "Project fear" to quote; "It puts forward claims that the economic and socio-political dangers of leaving the E.U. are just scaremongering and pessimism employed by those in favour of remaining in the EU".

As for the EU needing us more than we need them. The 500bn (very approximate) trade in both directions sounds really equal, until you break it down a little.
Yes, we have roughly this amount in revenue from the EU but, theiir share is split accross multiple counrtries.

I obviously wasn't sarcastic enough. I still hear Little Englanders making that stupid statement.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:08 pm  

Britain’s brexit problems with the EU will be minor compared with the Italian banking crisis. The Italian banks are broke the major debts are with French banks. No doubt the EU will as usual bend the rules and bail out the banks. The money unfortunately as in the Greek crisis will go to the banks and not to the Italian people. What Germany have done to Greece at merkels behest is criminal. Greece has been reduced to a third world status. Italy has suffered over the years with a trade imbalance with Germany. The Italians are starting to realise along with others that the EU is a body to facilitate German prosperity and dominance. The only country to benefit significantly from the euro is Germany. Sooner or later the whole of the EU will have a set corporation tax rate. That will stop the Irish advantage in attracting major companies due to a lower corporation tax. Poland and Hungary are fed up with the EU Trying to run them, so potentially major problems with them. Macron in France is another snake oil salesman, sooner or later the right wing will have a major foothold in French politics . Then the EU will have more problems, the whole setup is looking outdated and corrupt. Hence it’s share of world trade is falling. European army anyone?