Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:16 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

Although the RoI will be hit hard by Brexit and would be hit even harder by a no-deal Brexit, I don’t see much of a case for it having a bigger impact than on the UK.

In terms of trade, the UK accounts for 22% of RoI’s imports and 12% of their exports.

The EU accounts for 53% of the UK’s imports and 44% of our exports.

I terms of the impact of a hard-border re-igniting conflict, Great Britain already subsidises (for want of a better word) NI more than the UK does the EU - and that’s not per capita, that’s absolute amount. That number will only go up if the Troubles return.

You say that Ireland’s position is unconvincing and illogical, but surely that’s even more true for ours. I think our position has been based too much on what Brexiteers wish was true, rather than what is true, and that is a deeply flawed approach to negotiation.

I know that there’s more distrust of experts than there used to be, especially on the Brexit side of the argument, and it is wise to think both about what people say and why they are saying it. However, you’re now suggesting that we trust the judgement of ‘experienced politicians’, some of whom suggest that the EU might blink. I assume these are people like David Davis, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg? The same preening, feeble-minded wazzocks who got us in this mess.

I'm not sure of the figures but I do know that ROI economy is closely linked to ours, hence our loan when they were skint. Im not sure of the actual figures, however, what I have seen consistently is that as a percentage they will not lose as much as us but it is still a hefty amount. The biggest issue to a no deal Brexit at the moment I believe is the backstop, so its in the interest of the ROI to negotiate as us.

My prediction is: Our weak representatives in the House of commons have already ruled out a no deal Brexit so that negotiating angle has gone, in my opinion the EU will not negotiate anymore "why should they" we have no negotiating position, we are a laughing stock (unless someone on here can correct me) we will end up with another divisive referendum which, as has been mentioned on here and ive no reason to disagree with it that due to the younger people in this country that can now vote it might just swing a narrow remain victory (which will achieve what ?) the millions that voted leave in the last referendum and vote leave again including myself will feel cheated, there will possibly be some unrest (I would hope not), whilst The smug Eurocrats in Brussels will be congratulating themselves and use us as a beating stick to any other country that dares thinking about leaving.

I really hope you don't mean that the only feeble minded wazzocks are only on the Brexit side of the argument mate, they are by no means the ones that got us into this mess, the whole collective in the House of Commons have got us into this mess IMO

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:14 pm  

POSTL wrote:

I'm not sure of the figures but I do know that ROI economy is closely linked to ours, hence our loan when they were skint. Im not sure of the actual figures, however, what I have seen consistently is that as a percentage they will not lose as much as us but it is still a hefty amount. The biggest issue to a no deal Brexit at the moment I believe is the backstop, so its in the interest of the ROI to negotiate as us.

My prediction is: Our weak representatives in the House of commons have already ruled out a no deal Brexit so that negotiating angle has gone, in my opinion the EU will not negotiate anymore "why should they" we have no negotiating position, we are a laughing stock (unless someone on here can correct me) we will end up with another divisive referendum which, as has been mentioned on here and ive no reason to disagree with it that due to the younger people in this country that can now vote it might just swing a narrow remain victory (which will achieve what ?) the millions that voted leave in the last referendum and vote leave again including myself will feel cheated, there will possibly be some unrest (I would hope not), whilst The smug Eurocrats in Brussels will be congratulating themselves and use us as a beating stick to any other country that dares thinking about leaving.

I really hope you don't mean that the only feeble minded wazzocks are only on the Brexit side of the argument mate, they are by no means the ones that got us into this mess, the whole collective in the House of Commons have got us into this mess IMO

No side has a monopoly on feeble minded wazzockry. David Cameron, and much of the Remain campaign, springs to mind. However, remain doesn’t have people pushing this particular idea. My point really was that citing somebody like Johnson or Davis as experinced politicians whose opinions I can take reassurance from would be (and in fairness, Cronus hasn’t named anybody specific) about as reassuring to me as me pointing to the positions of Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott would be to him.

It was in the interest of the EU, and the RoI as part of it, to negotiate with us. Which is why they did. It’s not in their interest to make the concessions the ERG and DUP have requested, which is why they aren’t. I think the threat or bluff of no deal is pretty peripheral to that calculation - it just isn’t that strong a card. And to extent it does have value it as a sort of kamikaze blackmail. Even if you take a hard-nosed view and say the ends would justify the means, it is still a poor tactical approach imo, unlikely to achieve those ends.

Scotland and NI both voted remain. The unionist community in NI has stronger cultural links to Scotland than any other part of GB. Why not suggest the physical border that nobody wants or expects would be between Scotland and England, with NI on the Scottish side? Nobody is going to bomb it, NI wouldn’t be completely cut off from the rest of the UK, and if Scotland and NI did somehow get stuck in the customs union for a while, presumably most of their people would be fairly relaxed about it. It’s probably a terrible idea, but at least it is an idea, which is more than May has managed since she put down her red wax crayon.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:37 pm  

Among the many things about brexit that keeps me amused on a daily basis is the movement for a people’s vote. Unless I am sadly mistaken the referendum was a people’s vote. This was confirmed to me this morning by my Labrador, I asked him if he voted in the referendum. His retort was he has better things to do ,like trying to mount the Labrador bitch at the end of the lane.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:06 pm  

What puzzles me about this backstop lark is why a border between north & south should be needed anyway for inter Irish trade . I am sure the island of Ireland could work out a system to satisfy both the UK & Irish governments. The only need for a deviation to this would be for traffic crossing the Irish sea to mainland Britain....NI freight & passengers from ports & airports in the north & Eire freight & passengers from southern ports & airports. Everybody & everything needs a ticket or delivery note & computerisation could soon detect any one trying to cross or bring good through the wrong port.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:07 pm  

Backwoodsman wrote: Among the many things about brexit that keeps me amused on a daily basis is the movement for a people’s vote. Unless I am sadly mistaken the referendum was a people’s vote. This was confirmed to me this morning by my Labrador, I asked him if he voted in the referendum. His retort was he has better things to do ,like trying to mount the Labrador bitch at the end of the lane. I’m not in favour of a second referendum and I couldn’t agree more about trying to pass off a ‘people’s vote’ as something different. That attempted re-labelling is some more feeble-minded wazzockry. However, I do think this quote bears endless repeating: ‘In a 52-48 referendum, this would be unfinished business by a long way’ N. Farage MEP. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics- ... m-36306681 Fair play to David Cameron on ‘neverendum’, as well.

Backwoodsman wrote: Among the many things about brexit that keeps me amused on a daily basis is the movement for a people’s vote. Unless I am sadly mistaken the referendum was a people’s vote. This was confirmed to me this morning by my Labrador, I asked him if he voted in the referendum. His retort was he has better things to do ,like trying to mount the Labrador bitch at the end of the lane. I’m not in favour of a second referendum and I couldn’t agree more about trying to pass off a ‘people’s vote’ as something different. That attempted re-labelling is some more feeble-minded wazzockry. However, I do think this quote bears endless repeating: ‘In a 52-48 referendum, this would be unfinished business by a long way’ N. Farage MEP. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics- ... m-36306681 Fair play to David Cameron on ‘neverendum’, as well.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:10 pm  

Backwoodsman wrote:

Among the many things about brexit that keeps me amused on a daily basis is the movement for a people’s vote. Unless I am sadly mistaken the referendum was a people’s vote. This was confirmed to me this morning by my Labrador, I asked him if he voted in the referendum. His retort was he has better things to do ,like trying to mount the Labrador bitch at the end of the lane.

The people who keep banging the drum for a peoples vote are too embarressed to call it a referendum, as it was promised before the last one that we will not have another referendum if we vote to leave.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:26 pm  

ninearches wrote:

What puzzles me about this backstop lark is why a border between north & south should be needed anyway for inter Irish trade . I am sure the island of Ireland could work out a system to satisfy both the UK & Irish governments. The only need for a deviation to this would be for traffic crossing the Irish sea to mainland Britain....NI freight & passengers from ports & airports in the north & Eire freight & passengers from southern ports & airports. Everybody & everything needs a ticket or delivery note & computerisation could soon detect any one trying to cross or bring good through the wrong port.

I agree there’s no reason why something can’t be sorted out, once a trade agreement with the EU is agreed or as part of it. The backstop is a ‘what if’ insurance policy in case, for some reason, a deal isn’t reached. It is including a condition for the future relationship negotiations within the divorce deal. Now, there’s an entirely coherent argument that the two should be independent, and this should be for discussion at the next stage. However, if we have red lines it isn’t unreasonable for the EU to have some too and Ireland got out in front of this, whereas I suspect much of GB half-forgot about NI once the bombings and shootings ceased being a near daily staple on the news.

The EU won’t want an unsupervised backdoor. If stuff can be routed through NI, into Ireland and then potentially into mainland Europe, without any EU checks, and there are differences in tariffs that make it worthwhile, then opportunistic/unscrupulous traders will take advantage of that.

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:01 pm  

Mild Rover wrote: I’m not in favour of a second referendum and I couldn’t agree more about trying to pass off a ‘people’s vote’ as something different. That attempted re-labelling is some more feeble-minded wazzockry. However, I do think this quote bears endless repeating: ‘In a 52-48 referendum, this would be unfinished business by a long way’ N. Farage MEP. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics- ... m-36306681 Fair play to David Cameron on ‘neverendum’, as well. If remain would have won the vote, not only would Farage be calling for another Referendum the whole of UKIP would have been the same, that's the whole point of their existence as is the SNP as soon as they lost the last one they started to plan and push for the next, they will pick their time and push for another independence referendum. Following the vote pundits were asking what is the point of UKIP now. By the way love the word "Wazzockry"

Mild Rover wrote: I’m not in favour of a second referendum and I couldn’t agree more about trying to pass off a ‘people’s vote’ as something different. That attempted re-labelling is some more feeble-minded wazzockry. However, I do think this quote bears endless repeating: ‘In a 52-48 referendum, this would be unfinished business by a long way’ N. Farage MEP. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics- ... m-36306681 Fair play to David Cameron on ‘neverendum’, as well. If remain would have won the vote, not only would Farage be calling for another Referendum the whole of UKIP would have been the same, that's the whole point of their existence as is the SNP as soon as they lost the last one they started to plan and push for the next, they will pick their time and push for another independence referendum. Following the vote pundits were asking what is the point of UKIP now. By the way love the word "Wazzockry"

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:02 pm  

People voted (regardless of number), and they voted to leave, it really us as simple as that.

May doesn't want to so is making it almost impossible, I am a conservative, she is a gravy train rider, spending my taxes on stupid ideas like HS2.

[Pumpetypump]

Re: Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) : Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:01 pm  

MGarbutt1986 wrote:

May doesn't want to (leave the EU)

I personally believe that she was a fake remainer pre referendum purely because she thought she was backing the winning side, and that she in fact does want to leave.

The fact that both quitlings and remainers think she's supporting the other side is testament to how dreadful she is as Prime Minister.