Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:10 pm  

Dally wrote:

Low taxation - overall tax burden has increased (you seem to fall for the idiocy surrounding the basic rate of income tax)

Reasonable growth levels - growth in what - headline DGP? How does that translate into an improvement in people's day to day lives?

Solid employment levels - yes, although how many are part-time; zero-hours; pensioners carrying on working because of financial need; and the involuntary self-employed?

Increased living standards - not for most people. Still below 2008 levels.

An economy that embraces talent? By under-funding and undervaluing scientific research, etc - ie the only things that can make the country's future prosperous.

Low corporation tax - yes, but is that a good thing? Especially as notwithstanding it being low so many avoid it my transfer-pricing, sale and lease-back arrangements; offshoring intellectual property and royalties; etc. Lower CT means a higher personal tax burden for all UK resident and domiciled taxpayers and reduced funds for public services. Granted dividend payments are enhanced but given the lack of investment returns it hardly helps.

Low crime? Only the other day it was announced there had been a huge increase in violent crime in the capital city, including of knife and gun crime.

Are you reading 19th century newspapers or something?

I would say there are are millions of people who have a better standard of living than they did in 2008 - anyone who has had any kind of career development and there will be millions will be in a better position than they were in 2008.

Low CT means corporations can either pay more dividends - benefits most with a pension, can invest in people or projects and they generate more cash that they can decide what to do with rather than the state deciding for them. Has the overall take for CT dropped/increase/stayed the same since the drop in rates?

Growth GDP seems to be growing or is that being made up by the ONS? 2.6% in 2014 etc.

This country is one of the most innovative in the world for its size- what bit of scientific research is not carried out here?

Crime rates have been falling in this country since 2003

I ask again if this country is so bad why do so many want to come and work here as opposed to other sizable economies in Europe?

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:18 pm  

Dally wrote:

Low interest rates are a moral hazard created by the excessive credit and its consequence - the 2008 crisis. Low-interest rates serve to reduce investment returns and so stifle investment. They also result in excessive debt burden being taken on - which will lead to another, deeper crisis. As to affordability, only for those with pre-existing mortgages - who are in effect being subsidised by savers and the prudent. For new borrowers, capital values are higher as a result (ie no more affordability. In fact, if you read a 21st century newspapers you may realise that young people are in fact priced out of the housing market in many areas even where earning several times the national average income).

Complete rubbish - low interest only reduce investment returns if you stick the money in the bank. Invested correctly in capital projects low interest rates give very interesting investment opportunities. As a business we can borrow any amount we want at 1.4% over base - guess what we have borrowed substantial sums and invested in a variety of projects which we would not otherwise have as low interest rates shorten ROI time frames considerably

Young people can buy property in a host of places - plenty of cheap property in Bradford, Wakefield, Halifax, Oldham, Rochdale etc. Yes they may not be able to buy in London or Cornwall but there are plenty of places young people can afford to live the fact they choose not to is a different matter

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:34 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I ask again if this country is so bad why do so many want to come and work here as opposed to other sizable economies in Europe?

I can't remember which channel showed it but there was a documentary before the EU referendum following the lives of a few Eastern Europeans preparing to come to the UK. One lad had been researching unskilled factory work and said he could earn more money in one day in the UK than he could earn in Poland in a week.

It didn't really ring true with the experiences I've had of working alongside Eastern Europeans about 17 years ago during a Summer job I had while at Uni. Most of them saw the UK as a stepping stone to the USA and saw UK factory work as 'donkey work for crap pay'. Some of them were massively overskilled for the work they were doing, often fluent in 4 or 5 languages. Whether or not they are now living the American dream... Who knows?

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:39 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Complete rubbish - low interest only reduce investment returns if you stick the money in the bank. Invested correctly in capital projects low interest rates give very interesting investment opportunities. As a business we can borrow any amount we want at 1.4% over base - guess what we have borrowed substantial sums and invested in a variety of projects which we would not otherwise have as low interest rates shorten ROI time frames considerably

Young people can buy property in a host of places - plenty of cheap property in Bradford, Wakefield, Halifax, Oldham, Rochdale etc. Yes they may not be able to buy in London or Cornwall but there are plenty of places young people can afford to live the fact they choose not to is a different matter

Just taking up on your low interest rates, which, of course are beneficial to anyone borrowing money.
IF inflation continues to rise, which it has slowly begun to do (largely on the back of currency inflation) and still has some way to go, what happens to the millions of people and businesses that have borrowed using "cheap money".
A 0.5 or 1% increase in base bank rates would hit these people very, very hard and any growth in the economy will disappear faster than an ice cube in a tea pot.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Apr 19, 2017 3:20 pm  

Dally wrote:

Talking of delusional dream worlds - do you really think Jeremy, of the Metropolitan Elite, will be reading your message to him on a rugby league fans website? Do you think he knows or cares what rugby league is?

Well, if we're going to talk about pointless posting on a rugby league website I guess I have to bow to your expert opinion.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:38 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Just taking up on your low interest rates, which, of course are beneficial to anyone borrowing money.
IF inflation continues to rise, which it has slowly begun to do (largely on the back of currency inflation) and still has some way to go, what happens to the millions of people and businesses that have borrowed using "cheap money".
A 0.5 or 1% increase in base bank rates would hit these people very, very hard and any growth in the economy will disappear faster than an ice cube in a tea pot.

£ is now at c1.20 euro that what it was a two years ago and better than it was three years ago so it could be inflation will fall back especially if oil pricing stabilises.

Given that most banks aren't into giving business overdrafts not a lot, the borrowing will be in the form of loans at fixed interest rates so an increase in interest rates will not impact their existing exposure what it might do is make them consider future borrowing more carefully. You would hope most business will have made hay whilst the sun shines.

Interest rates on ID facilities and the likes are pretty competitive - lots of players out there - pretty secure lending as most debtors will pay up even if you go bust and they will only lend you 90% of the book less if they think matters are looking grim - low risk low rates.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:11 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

£ is now at c1.20 euro that what it was a two years ago and better than it was three years ago so it could be inflation will fall back especially if oil pricing stabilises.

Given that most banks aren't into giving business overdrafts not a lot, the borrowing will be in the form of loans at fixed interest rates so an increase in interest rates will not impact their existing exposure what it might do is make them consider future borrowing more carefully. You would hope most business will have made hay whilst the sun shines.

Interest rates on ID facilities and the likes are pretty competitive - lots of players out there - pretty secure lending as most debtors will pay up even if you go bust and they will only lend you 90% of the book less if they think matters are looking grim - low risk low rates.

What about personal debt, which is at record levels ?

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:19 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

What about personal debt, which is at record levels ?

The Government don't apply for credit or force people to sign contracts.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:41 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Complete rubbish - low interest only reduce investment returns if you stick the money in the bank. Invested correctly in capital projects low interest rates give very interesting investment opportunities. As a business we can borrow any amount we want at 1.4% over base - guess what we have borrowed substantial sums and invested in a variety of projects which we would not otherwise have as low interest rates shorten ROI time frames considerably

Young people can buy property in a host of places - plenty of cheap property in Bradford, Wakefield, Halifax, Oldham, Rochdale etc. Yes they may not be able to buy in London or Cornwall but there are plenty of places young people can afford to live the fact they choose not to is a different matter

Let's look at the facts:

A solid, balanced portfolio aimed at generating a sustainable income would yield 3%, one aimed at capital growth perhaps 1.8%. These are pathetic yields in historic terms, especially with inflation running at 2.3% and expected to edge up to c.3% by the end of the year.

The growth in the UK economy has been fuelled by consumer-spending not investment by businesses. With inflation now matching wage growth and inflation projected to increase through the year that source of growth looks like disappearing (maybe why May has called an election, before it hits the fan?).

There is a lack of business investment on both the manufacturing and service sectors (at lowest levels since the 2008-2010 crash period). Weakness projected to continue due to Brexit concerns.

High household debt - unsecured lending at highest level since 2006 (pre-crash).

Only one thing is certain about debt - whether for "business growth" or otherwise - it has to be repaid and often when times are harder than when borrowed. Also with interest rates at all time lows, will growth cover an increase to say a 10% rate or even 5% base rate?

All cheap money does is create asset price bubbles - whether property, shares, or whatever as its easy to make a quick buck there (before the bubble bursts) than make meaningful business investment that creates real long-term wealth. In a nutshell that is the weakness of the current system, allied to over-paid, weak management in large companies. People who sit on cash piles or return funds to shareholders because they are incapable of investing in future growth opportunities.

You need to visit the opticians to have your rose-tinted specs adjusted.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:52 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I would say there are are millions of people who have a better standard of living than they did in 2008 - anyone who has had any kind of career development and there will be millions will be in a better position than they were in 2008.

You may say millions are better off but this article from 6 months ago (which seems to be built on more than "I would say") suggests otherwise. It also addresses your GDP miracle. Please note than since that article was written real wages growth has declined (see my previous post).