Re: "freeDUMB day" : Mon Jul 26, 2021 12:12 pm  

MatthewTrin wrote:

I wouldn't trust a word from that conman Vallance. Deliberately giving mixed messages to confuse the public.

The COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group reported in the over 50s both the unvaccinated and those give one dose under 21 days only make up 34% of hopsitalised cases as at 21 June.

That is entirely what you would expect to see when the majority of the population in that group is fully vaccinated, so I am not sure what you are trying to say.

Re: "freeDUMB day" : Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:39 pm  

Zoo Zoo Boom wrote:

Good to see infections starting to drop, given we have no lockdown, no enforced distance or masks - how has this happened?

I would not gloat until the effects of freedom day filter through, this should be sometime this week.

Re: "freeDUMB day" : Mon Jul 26, 2021 2:07 pm  

There is no denying the drop in cases is positive, especially when it doesn't appear to be solely caused by a reduction in testing. Let's hope it continues.

[Bullseye]

Re: "freeDUMB day" : Mon Jul 26, 2021 2:45 pm  

Schools finishing will have a positive effect as will all the nice weather. Make the most of it while you can. There's bound to be some ups and downs yet.

Meanwhile in Mental Health Trusts we're seeing the effects of the pandemic in terms of its effect on mental health. We also have 6000 fewer beds than we had in 2010 which was a real problem before all this started.

Re: "freeDUMB day" : Tue Jul 27, 2021 7:47 am  

Bullseye wrote:

Schools finishing will have a positive effect as will all the nice weather. Make the most of it while you can. There's bound to be some ups and downs yet.

Meanwhile in Mental Health Trusts we're seeing the effects of the pandemic in terms of its effect on mental health. We also have 6000 fewer beds than we had in 2010 which was a real problem before all this started.

You are in the most invidious position - the lockdown will drive up mental health issues - was the trade off really worth it?

Re: "freeDUMB day" : Tue Jul 27, 2021 7:50 am  

Scarlet Pimpernell wrote:

I would not gloat until the effects of freedom day filter through, this should be sometime this week.

I bet you have everything crossed for another spike - why are you so averse to any kind of good news? No doubt if they continue dropping you will be banging on about new variants the last bastion of those who want to control society.

Re: "freeDUMB day" : Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:34 pm  

Scarlet Pimpernell wrote:

I would not gloat until the effects of freedom day filter through, this should be sometime this week.

Why is it gloating? Is it not good to see a fall in cases? Would you rather see a rise? I strongly suspect you would.

[Bullseye]

Re: "freeDUMB day" : Tue Jul 27, 2021 3:38 pm  

Zoo Zoo Boom wrote:

You are in the most invidious position - the lockdown will drive up mental health issues - was the trade off really worth it?

If you look at Brazil then the trade off was worth it. There was no "easy option" available. Many MH referrals are increased because of the pandemic, no doubt about it, but had we not locked down there would have been more illness and fatalities that would've led to more MH referrals.

Those 6000 fewer MH beds since 2010 are an issue. We currently have children on adult mental health wards and inpatients in beds over 150 miles from their homes because there are no beds in their own areas. It's the same in every Trust.

Re: "freeDUMB day" : Tue Jul 27, 2021 6:26 pm  

Zoo Zoo Boom wrote:

the lockdown will drive up mental health issues - was the trade off really worth it?

Whilst I know we are a tad different in terms of population density, lockdowns when done correctly with 99.9% acceptance, were short and sweet here. 5 weeks full.....3 weeks next stage and within 12 weeks we were back to normal.
Lockdowns work, but only if you close your borders and make returning citizens isolate in government funded hotels.....again, not as easy to do with a population your size.
So what you had was a series of half lockdowns that slowed but didn't stop the virus spreading, but if you compare the UK death toll to what it could hav been if you'd simply ploughed on I'd have to say the rise in mental health issues was well worth it.
500 deaths reported in the last 7 days, hospital admissions at a steady rate and infection numbers seeming to have plateaued at about 25,000.....the UK is at a key point in the fight and the world is watching you ....

Re: "freeDUMB day" : Wed Jul 28, 2021 9:00 am  

mailman wrote: That is entirely what you would expect to see when the majority of the population in that group is fully vaccinated, so I am not sure what you are trying to say. A simple version of the numbers, but it gets the point across. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57610998 US Dept of Health will soon publish data on correlates of protection for covid (Correlates of Protection define the immune response a vaccine or natural viral infection would need to trigger so that an individual is protected from a virus or infectious disease in the future.The aim of measuring immune response to vaccination or natural viral infection is to understand the level at which a person can fight off a future infection). It's a significant piece of work and the definitive piece of evidence used to determine the level of immune response needed to confer immunity to an infectious disease, and to then compare that to the immune response generated by the vaccines. The data will show that the vaccines generate a massive protective immune response well above the level (up to 10x) the level of the calculated correlate of protection.

mailman wrote: That is entirely what you would expect to see when the majority of the population in that group is fully vaccinated, so I am not sure what you are trying to say. A simple version of the numbers, but it gets the point across. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57610998 US Dept of Health will soon publish data on correlates of protection for covid (Correlates of Protection define the immune response a vaccine or natural viral infection would need to trigger so that an individual is protected from a virus or infectious disease in the future.The aim of measuring immune response to vaccination or natural viral infection is to understand the level at which a person can fight off a future infection). It's a significant piece of work and the definitive piece of evidence used to determine the level of immune response needed to confer immunity to an infectious disease, and to then compare that to the immune response generated by the vaccines. The data will show that the vaccines generate a massive protective immune response well above the level (up to 10x) the level of the calculated correlate of protection.