Re: Transfer Talk / Rumour Thread V3 : Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:12 am  

Our first choice pack is OK if Mik is back fit. I expect Tommy Holroyd to come out improved for 2022 as well, he's still very young indeed for a prop.

Prior and Tet were disappointing at the back end of last year, let's hope a rest and putting COVID further behind will put them in better shape for next season.

At least we know what Prior can do when he's in form.

Obviously it's not fair to expect players like Holroyd, Gannon or even Mik to be fully matured against seasoned pros at this level yet. I guess the club has signalled they do want to bring in some more experienced quality, the problem is finding that quality at a price we can justify.

Re: Transfer Talk / Rumour Thread V3 : Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:52 am  

KaeruJim wrote:

Our first choice pack is OK if Mik is back fit. I expect Tommy Holroyd to come out improved for 2022 as well, he's still very young indeed for a prop.

Prior and Tet were disappointing at the back end of last year, let's hope a rest and putting COVID further behind will put them in better shape for next season.

At least we know what Prior can do when he's in form.

Obviously it's not fair to expect players like Holroyd, Gannon or even Mik to be fully matured against seasoned pros at this level yet. I guess the club has signalled they do want to bring in some more experienced quality, the problem is finding that quality at a price we can justify.

I think Prior loss of form was more to do with running on empty.Hopefully if we sign decent prop we can rotate the front row better next season.Start with two props and two on the bench with Smith at 13.

Re: Transfer Talk / Rumour Thread V3 : Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:58 am  

tad rhino wrote:

I think us and wigan played lots if games in short periods too. no suprise the top 2 somehow avoided a lot of that

Absolutely. No taking anything away from Saints quality, but they have had a very kind hand dealt to them on the injury front for the last 3 years.. that surely can't continue.

Re: Transfer Talk / Rumour Thread V3 : Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:35 pm  

Trebor1 wrote:

Absolutely. No taking anything away from Saints quality, but they have had a very kind hand dealt to them on the injury front for the last 3 years.. that surely can't continue.

So I decided to look at the numbers. Fortunately, Saints and Leeds both played 27 games across League, cup and playoffs this year, which made for a nice comparison. For simplicities sake, I decided to just look at the 1-13 of each side, but substituted Richie Myler in to the Leeds team, as Jack Walker didnt play a single game, so its hard to judge if he actually was first choice. All stats from the SL website + Saints site for the CC games.

Saints 1-13:
Coote: 21
Makinson: 16
Naiqama: 23
Percival: 17
Grace: 21
Lomax: 21
Fages: 14
Walmsley: 23
Roby: 23
Lees: 13
Thompson: 19
Bentley: 10
Knowles: 15

236/351

Leeds 2-13+16
Myler: 18
Briscoe: 25
Newman: 12
Hurrell: 15
Handley: 16
Lui: 9
Gale: 11
Oledzki: 14
Leeming: 24
Prior: 22
Mellor: 15
Martin: 23
Tetavano: 12

216/351

20 "injury games" is effectively 1 more serious injury or 4-5 minor injuries (which are definitely more impacted by quality in strength/conditioning/recovery methods, making it harder to judge "luck" as a quantative measure) - or 2 serious injuries, when factoring Jack Walker back in. Its quite hard to judge, but I am not sure theres enough variation in the numbers to suggest massive fortune or misfortune (this year at least). Thats before you consider the freak injuries like Walmsley breaking his neck in 2018 or Lees ruptured bowel.

I will confess the numbers are a little wider than I was expecting. Joel Thompson, Theo Fages and Mark Percival all played bigger roles in the season then I was expecting before looking at the numbers (though I am sure Percival left at least 10 of his games clutching his leg at half time, which brings things more in line again )

Re: Transfer Talk / Rumour Thread V3 : Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:51 pm  

It is a nice comparison, always good to look at the numbers. A point I would make is that when for example Fages is out then Dodd can step in, or when Makinson or Percival was out then Welsby steps in. Lees is out then Amor steps in etc etc.

When for example Gale and Lui are out then Mclelland and Sutcliffe are as well. It isn’t just the injuries we have had it is the number at the same time, running from starting 13 to subs and then back ups.

If for example Hurrell is out and so is Mellor but everybody else is fit then you can manage and cover those injuries. If Hurrell and Mellor are out but so is Sutcliffe, Broadbent then Martin might play centre and suddenly you need to find two back row players so you are looking at Donaldson and maybe Gannon or Walters.

My point is it’s not just the 13 it’s the squad and secondly it’s the games you miss at the same time.

Re: Transfer Talk / Rumour Thread V3 : Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:20 am  

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

So I decided to look at the numbers. Fortunately, Saints and Leeds both played 27 games across League, cup and playoffs this year, which made for a nice comparison. For simplicities sake, I decided to just look at the 1-13 of each side, but substituted Richie Myler in to the Leeds team, as Jack Walker didnt play a single game, so its hard to judge if he actually was first choice. All stats from the SL website + Saints site for the CC games.

Saints 1-13:
Coote: 21
Makinson: 16
Naiqama: 23
Percival: 17
Grace: 21
Lomax: 21
Fages: 14
Walmsley: 23
Roby: 23
Lees: 13
Thompson: 19
Bentley: 10
Knowles: 15

236/351

Leeds 2-13+16
Myler: 18
Briscoe: 25
Newman: 12
Hurrell: 15
Handley: 16
Lui: 9
Gale: 11
Oledzki: 14
Leeming: 24
Prior: 22
Mellor: 15
Martin: 23
Tetavano: 12

216/351

20 "injury games" is effectively 1 more serious injury or 4-5 minor injuries (which are definitely more impacted by quality in strength/conditioning/recovery methods, making it harder to judge "luck" as a quantative measure) - or 2 serious injuries, when factoring Jack Walker back in. Its quite hard to judge, but I am not sure theres enough variation in the numbers to suggest massive fortune or misfortune (this year at least). Thats before you consider the freak injuries like Walmsley breaking his neck in 2018 or Lees ruptured bowel.

I will confess the numbers are a little wider than I was expecting. Joel Thompson, Theo Fages and Mark Percival all played bigger roles in the season then I was expecting before looking at the numbers (though I am sure Percival left at least 10 of his games clutching his leg at half time, which brings things more in line again )

Not much in the overall figures but if you have a better squad overall in the key positions it makes a big difference. Also Walmsley Lomax and Roby plated that majority of the games. If they had only played the same number as Gale Lui and Tetevano there would definitely have been an impact. Anyway well done Saints as we will never know and they deserve their success.

Re: Transfer Talk / Rumour Thread V3 : Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:59 am  

Magic Superbeetle wrote:

So I decided to look at the numbers. Fortunately, Saints and Leeds both played 27 games across League, cup and playoffs this year, which made for a nice comparison. For simplicities sake, I decided to just look at the 1-13 of each side, but substituted Richie Myler in to the Leeds team, as Jack Walker didnt play a single game, so its hard to judge if he actually was first choice. All stats from the SL website + Saints site for the CC games.

Saints 1-13:
Coote: 21
Makinson: 16
Naiqama: 23
Percival: 17
Grace: 21
Lomax: 21
Fages: 14
Walmsley: 23
Roby: 23
Lees: 13
Thompson: 19
Bentley: 10
Knowles: 15

236/351

Leeds 2-13+16
Myler: 18
Briscoe: 25
Newman: 12
Hurrell: 15
Handley: 16
Lui: 9
Gale: 11
Oledzki: 14
Leeming: 24
Prior: 22
Mellor: 15
Martin: 23
Tetavano: 12

216/351

20 "injury games" is effectively 1 more serious injury or 4-5 minor injuries (which are definitely more impacted by quality in strength/conditioning/recovery methods, making it harder to judge "luck" as a quantative measure) - or 2 serious injuries, when factoring Jack Walker back in. Its quite hard to judge, but I am not sure theres enough variation in the numbers to suggest massive fortune or misfortune (this year at least). Thats before you consider the freak injuries like Walmsley breaking his neck in 2018 or Lees ruptured bowel.

I will confess the numbers are a little wider than I was expecting. Joel Thompson, Theo Fages and Mark Percival all played bigger roles in the season then I was expecting before looking at the numbers (though I am sure Percival left at least 10 of his games clutching his leg at half time, which brings things more in line again )

The big difference isn’t the total number of games missed from the 1-13 (although I think 1-17 would be a fairer comparison as it’s a 17 man game)

What stands out there is our lowest number of appearances are our key player, Lui, Gale, Oledski and Tetevano. We’ve had a prop and half back crisis most the season.

Re: Transfer Talk / Rumour Thread V3 : Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:16 am  

Lprhino wrote:

It is a nice comparison, always good to look at the numbers. A point I would make is that when for example Fages is out then Dodd can step in, or when Makinson or Percival was out then Welsby steps in. Lees is out then Amor steps in etc etc.

When for example Gale and Lui are out then Mclelland and Sutcliffe are as well. It isn’t just the injuries we have had it is the number at the same time, running from starting 13 to subs and then back ups.

If for example Hurrell is out and so is Mellor but everybody else is fit then you can manage and cover those injuries. If Hurrell and Mellor are out but so is Sutcliffe, Broadbent then Martin might play centre and suddenly you need to find two back row players so you are looking at Donaldson and maybe Gannon or Walters.

My point is it’s not just the 13 it’s the squad and secondly it’s the games you miss at the same time.

Totally accept that its a squad game, but when I tried to expand it out to 1-17 or wider, it becomes much harder to assess whether someone missed out because of an injury or because they weren't selected (part of the reason my original post flip flops between including Walker and Myler). Welsby played the most games for Saints this year (26/27) with a squad number of 18 so wouldn't be included in a comparison, but was more to do with him playing his way into the team rather than injuries itself (as even when everyone was fit he still made the team).

Due to different team compositions, it also makes injury comparisons much more difficult to compare. On the face of it, saying a back to back winning halfback in Fages can be replaced by a teenager in Dodd without blinking an eyelid would be silly, but its not luck that Dodd was in a position to do that (its why we sold Richardson to Castleford) which was the original assertion.

I would also say its very rare for Saints to move players out of their natural position. I can think of some in game examples when we have a limited/ forwards only bench, but even in games where we play deliberately weakened teams, either a kid plays or a player who normally occupies the position (hence Grace and Lees played vs Salford for example).

Re: Transfer Talk / Rumour Thread V3 : Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:28 pm  

I personally don't think a player can reach their full potential without knowing their position and role in the team clearly.

When you're young and looking to break into the team (Welsby, Broadbent...) then you expect to have to bend a bit and fit in where needed.

I'd almost always rather go for the next specialist in line to cover an injury or poor form, rather than begin with a notional "best 17 players" and try to get them all on the park somehow.

Re: Transfer Talk / Rumour Thread V3 : Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:26 pm  

KaeruJim wrote:

I'd almost always rather go for the next specialist in line to cover an injury or poor form, rather than begin with a notional "best 17 players" and try to get them all on the park somehow.

Could you tell Bielsa that please?