: Fri Jul 03, 2009 11:20 pm  

af wrote:

Not quite must-win but getting on for it - six wins from nine required if we do, seven if we don't...

Even then I can't see it being enough. IMO the teams above us have too big of a lead on us. Also it would means us starting to show the type of form that hasn't been evident over the last 18 months.

: Sat Jul 04, 2009 5:38 am  

redeverready wrote:

Even then I can't see it being enough. IMO the teams above us have too big of a lead on us.

they all have to play each other, because there are loads of them. Throughout the year, a 50/50 record has been enough for 6th or 7th. Maybe a statto can further inform us but I think that will be enough.

Also it would means us starting to show the type of form that hasn't been evident over the last 18 months.

Here you have a point.

: Sat Jul 04, 2009 11:14 am  

A lot has been made of the 50% record will take us in to the play offs.

Here's a breakdown of what all the other teams bar Saints and Leeds need to hit 50%.

New wins in bold

Hull KR = 2 Wins needed
Left to play
Catalans, Bradford, Leeds, Hull FC, Castleford, Saints, Salford, Warrington, Wakefield

That would give them 33 points

Huddersfield = 2 Wins needed
Left to play
Wakefield, Harlequins, Warrington,Catalans, Hull FC, Bradford, Saints, Celtic, Wigan

Tha would give them 34 points

Harlequins = 3 Wins needed
Left to play
Huddersfield, Catalans, Saints, Bradford, Bradford, Salford, Hull FC, Castleford, Warrington

That would give them 30 points

Wakefield = 3 Wins needed
Left to play
Huddersfield, Leeds, Saints, Castleford, Celtic, Warrington, Catalans, Hull KR

That would give them 26 points

Wigan = 4 Wins needed
Left to play
Catalans, Bradford, Leeds, Saints, Warrington, Castleford, Hull FC, Huddersfield

That would give them 28 points

Warrington = 4 Wins needed
Left to play
Celtic, Saints, Huddersfield, Salford, Leeds, Wigan, Wakefield, Hull KR, Harlequins

That would give them 32 points

Hull FC = 5 Wins needed
Left to play
Leeds, Castleford, Celtic, Hull KR, Huddersfield, Catalans, Harlequins, Wigan, Bradford

That would give them 20 points

Castleford = 5 Wins needed
Left to play
Bradford, Hull FC, Salford, Wakefield, Hull KR, Leeds, Wigan, Harlequins, Celtic

That would give them 20 points

Catalans = 6 Wins needed
Left to play
Salford, Hull KR, Wigan, Harlequins, Huddersfield, Celtic, Hull FC, Bradford, Wakefield, Saints

That would give them 22 points

Bradford = 7 Wins needed
Left to play
Castleford, Hull KR, Wigan, Celtic, Harlequins, [Harlequins, Huddersfield, Catalans, Salford, Hull FC

That would give them 25 points

: Sat Jul 04, 2009 3:31 pm  

Mate, bear in mind that most of those teams have to play each other. They can't all get two points every week.

A 50/50 record most years would get 7th or better. Any team that gets a 50/50 record and comes 9th would be unlucky.

: Sat Jul 04, 2009 3:32 pm  

Can anyone be arsed to go back through the Rothamns/equivalent and see where 50/50 places you in the league?

: Sat Jul 04, 2009 4:18 pm  

af wrote:

Can anyone be arsed to go back through the Rothamns/equivalent and see where 50/50 places you in the league?

For the last 5 years, nearest thing to 50/50 record:

2008
Warrington, P27, W14. Finished 6th.
Bradford, P27, W14. Finished 5th.

2007
Huddersfield, P27, W13, D1. Finished 5th.

2006
Salford, P28, W13. Finished 5th.

2005
London, P28, W13, D2. Finished 6th.

2004
Wakefield, P28, W15. Finished 6th.


So the rather obvious trend is that an overall 50/50 record gives you just making the playoffs (bearing in mind too that previous years were played with a Top 6 and 12 teams in the league).

If it's desperate, I could probably look further back too, but it seems pointless judging by those figures.

: Sat Jul 04, 2009 6:30 pm  

Can see us whupping Cas by 20+ points.

: Sat Jul 04, 2009 6:30 pm  

Can see us getting whupped by Cas by 20+ points

: Sat Jul 04, 2009 7:47 pm  

I agree with people in saying that this is a crucial game, and close to 'must win'.

It would be unthinkable for a club of our stature to fail to make the Top 8 - and yet if we lose tomorrow it looks likely

I'm going to say Bulls to win a high scoring game 34-28, but I'll be turning out more in hope than expectation.....

: Sat Jul 04, 2009 9:29 pm  

A lot has been made of the 50% record will take us in to the play offs.

Here's a breakdown of what all the other teams bar Saints and Leeds need to hit 50%.

New wins in bold

Hull KR = 2 Wins needed
Left to play
Catalans, Bradford, Leeds, Hull FC, Castleford, Saints, Salford, Warrington, Wakefield

That would give them 33 points

Huddersfield = 2 Wins needed
Left to play
Wakefield, Harlequins, Warrington,Catalans, Hull FC, Bradford, Saints, Celtic, Wigan

Tha would give them 34 points

Harlequins = 3 Wins needed
Left to play
Huddersfield, Catalans, Saints, Bradford, Bradford, Salford, Hull FC, Castleford, Warrington

That would give them 30 points

Wakefield = 3 Wins needed
Left to play
Huddersfield, Leeds, Saints, Castleford, Celtic, Warrington, Catalans, Hull KR

That would give them 26 points

Wigan = 4 Wins needed
Left to play
Catalans, Bradford, Leeds, Saints, Warrington, Castleford, Hull FC, Huddersfield

That would give them 28 points

Warrington = 4 Wins needed
Left to play
Celtic, Saints, Huddersfield, Salford, Leeds, Wigan, Wakefield, Hull KR, Harlequins

That would give them 32 points

Hull FC = 5 Wins needed
Left to play
Leeds, Castleford, Celtic, Hull KR, Huddersfield, Catalans, Harlequins, Wigan, Bradford

That would give them 20 points

Castleford = 5 Wins needed
Left to play
Bradford, Hull FC, Salford, Wakefield, Hull KR, Leeds, Wigan, Harlequins, Celtic

That would give them 20 points

Catalans = 6 Wins needed
Left to play
Salford, Hull KR, Wigan, Harlequins, Huddersfield, Celtic, Hull FC, Bradford, Wakefield, Saints

That would give them 22 points

Bradford = 7 Wins needed
Left to play
Castleford, Hull KR, Wigan, Celtic, Harlequins, Harlequins, Huddersfield, Catalans, Salford, Hull FC

That would give them 25 points