: Sat Jul 18, 2009 4:07 pm
Hmmm. Well, I got to thinking why he would say this. And maybe we are all being too pessimistic. Maybe Steve's right.
Why?
Well, of course, if we continue to play as we have been, then we are too erratic to win enough games ourselves, regardless of oher results, and so it is a "given" that unless we can achieve a string of consistency and a high slice of Wins, then there
is indeed no hope. But, having analysed it a bit, I am a little bit less gloomy.
If there are one or two errors in the detail I apologise in advance, I've done this post in a rush, but any minor errors won't alter the general reasoning and justification for a bit of optimism.
There are 3 factors:-
1. We have it in our hands to beat our main rivals for a top 8 spot. And we play a lot of them:
Genuine four pointers
Bradford v Wigan
Celtic v Bradford
Bradford v Harlequins
Harlequins v Bradford
Huddersfield v Bradford
Bradford v Catalans
Bradford v Salford
Hull v Bradford
Next, while the teams above us have a bit of a lead, here are the games where they MUST drop points:
Games where our competitiors are bound to lose 2 points between them
Catalans v Harlequins
Wakefield v Castleford
Warrington v Salford
Salford v Castleford
Catalans v Hull
Harlequins v Salford
Wigan v Warrington
Castleford v Wigan
Hull v Harlequins
Warrington v Wakefield
Catalans v Wakefield
Harlequins v Castleford
Wigan v Hull
Warrington v Harlequins
Catalans v Salford
Then again, the remaining games include many where teams either out of reach, or Celtic, are playing teams in our particulart mix, and could take points off our competitors:
Games where others can do us a favour by possibly taking points off our competitors
Huddersfield v Warrington
Harlequins v St Helens
Huddersfield v Catalans
Hull KR v Hull
Castleford v Hull KR
Catalans v Celtic
Hull v Huddersfield
Leeds v Warrington
Salford v Wakefield
Leeds v Castleford
Wakefield v Celtic
Salford v Hull KR
St Helens v Huddersfield
Celtic v Huddersfield
Hull KR v Warrington
Castleford v Celtic
Huddersfield v Wigan
Salford v Leeds
St Helens v Catalans
Wakefield v Hull KR
Looking at it like that, while no doubt we have a stiff task, I now reckon that our prospects aren't half as gloomy as I thought - with the obvious caveat that if WE don't put a very good run together, the other two parts make no difference.
Maybe McNamara is smarter than we all gave him credit for? Certainly, looking at that, he hasn't lost the plot. If we DO put a very good run together, then we WILL make the playoffs.
And if we don't, then it is entirely our fault.
It's still in our own hands, people. Believe!
