: Sat Jul 18, 2009 4:20 pm  

Ferocious Aardvark wrote:

Hmmm. Well, I got to thinking why he would say this. And maybe we are all being too pessimistic. Maybe Steve's right.

Why?

Well, of course, if we continue to play as we have been, then we are too erratic to win enough games ourselves, regardless of oher results, and so it is a "given" that unless we can achieve a string of consistency and a high slice of Wins, then there is indeed no hope. But, having analysed it a bit, I am a little bit less gloomy.

If there are one or two errors in the detail I apologise in advance, I've done this post in a rush, but any minor errors won't alter the general reasoning and justification for a bit of optimism.

There are 3 factors:-

1. We have it in our hands to beat our main rivals for a top 8 spot. And we play a lot of them:

Genuine four pointers
Bradford v Wigan
Celtic v Bradford
Bradford v Harlequins
Harlequins v Bradford
Huddersfield v Bradford
Bradford v Catalans
Bradford v Salford
Hull v Bradford

Next, while the teams above us have a bit of a lead, here are the games where they MUST drop points:
Games where our competitiors are bound to lose 2 points between them
Catalans v Harlequins
Wakefield v Castleford
Warrington v Salford
Salford v Castleford
Catalans v Hull
Harlequins v Salford
Wigan v Warrington
Castleford v Wigan
Hull v Harlequins
Warrington v Wakefield
Catalans v Wakefield
Harlequins v Castleford
Wigan v Hull
Warrington v Harlequins
Catalans v Salford

Then again, the remaining games include many where teams either out of reach, or Celtic, are playing teams in our particulart mix, and could take points off our competitors:
Games where others can do us a favour by possibly taking points off our competitors
Huddersfield v Warrington
Harlequins v St Helens
Huddersfield v Catalans
Hull KR v Hull
Castleford v Hull KR
Catalans v Celtic
Hull v Huddersfield
Leeds v Warrington
Salford v Wakefield
Leeds v Castleford
Wakefield v Celtic
Salford v Hull KR
St Helens v Huddersfield
Celtic v Huddersfield
Hull KR v Warrington
Castleford v Celtic
Huddersfield v Wigan
Salford v Leeds
St Helens v Catalans
Wakefield v Hull KR

Looking at it like that, while no doubt we have a stiff task, I now reckon that our prospects aren't half as gloomy as I thought - with the obvious caveat that if WE don't put a very good run together, the other two parts make no difference.

Maybe McNamara is smarter than we all gave him credit for? Certainly, looking at that, he hasn't lost the plot. If we DO put a very good run together, then we WILL make the playoffs.

And if we don't, then it is entirely our fault.

It's still in our own hands, people. Believe!

Thanks for that, makes it look a bit brighter. I really hope that we can but it does seem unlikely - We haven't had a run of more than 3 consecutive wins for a few years now.

: Sat Jul 18, 2009 4:26 pm  

Ferocious Aardvark wrote:

It's still in our own hands, people.

Although your point may be sound, it's the fact that it is in our hands that makes me less than optimistic. For the team that I have seen this year to put together an excellent run of results, I'm afraid it would take something close to a miracle.

: Sat Jul 18, 2009 5:17 pm  

DILLIGAF wrote:

Although your point may be sound, it's the fact that it is in our hands that makes me less than optimistic. For the team that I have seen this year to put together an excellent run of results, I'm afraid it would take something close to a miracle.

If we play like we did against Wakey, Saints, Wire and Leeds then we certainly have a good chance. If we play like we did against Salford, Celtic, Cas and Wigan then no.

: Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:02 pm  

Ferocious Aardvark wrote:

Hmmm. Well, I got to thinking why he would say this. And maybe we are all being too pessimistic. Maybe Steve's right.

Why?

Well, of course, if we continue to play as we have been, then we are too erratic to win enough games ourselves, regardless of oher results, and so it is a "given" that unless we can achieve a string of consistency and a high slice of Wins, then there is indeed no hope. But, having analysed it a bit, I am a little bit less gloomy.

If there are one or two errors in the detail I apologise in advance, I've done this post in a rush, but any minor errors won't alter the general reasoning and justification for a bit of optimism.

There are 3 factors:-

1. We have it in our hands to beat our main rivals for a top 8 spot. And we play a lot of them:

Genuine four pointers
Bradford v Wigan
Celtic v Bradford
Bradford v Harlequins
Harlequins v Bradford
Huddersfield v Bradford
Bradford v Catalans
Bradford v Salford
Hull v Bradford

Next, while the teams above us have a bit of a lead, here are the games where they MUST drop points:
Games where our competitiors are bound to lose 2 points between them
Catalans v Harlequins
Wakefield v Castleford
Warrington v Salford
Salford v Castleford
Catalans v Hull
Harlequins v Salford
Wigan v Warrington
Castleford v Wigan
Hull v Harlequins
Warrington v Wakefield
Catalans v Wakefield
Harlequins v Castleford
Wigan v Hull
Warrington v Harlequins
Catalans v Salford

Then again, the remaining games include many where teams either out of reach, or Celtic, are playing teams in our particulart mix, and could take points off our competitors:
Games where others can do us a favour by possibly taking points off our competitors
Huddersfield v Warrington
Harlequins v St Helens
Huddersfield v Catalans
Hull KR v Hull
Castleford v Hull KR
Catalans v Celtic
Hull v Huddersfield
Leeds v Warrington
Salford v Wakefield
Leeds v Castleford
Wakefield v Celtic
Salford v Hull KR
St Helens v Huddersfield
Celtic v Huddersfield
Hull KR v Warrington
Castleford v Celtic
Huddersfield v Wigan
Salford v Leeds
St Helens v Catalans
Wakefield v Hull KR

Looking at it like that, while no doubt we have a stiff task, I now reckon that our prospects aren't half as gloomy as I thought - with the obvious caveat that if WE don't put a very good run together, the other two parts make no difference.

Maybe McNamara is smarter than we all gave him credit for? Certainly, looking at that, he hasn't lost the plot. If we DO put a very good run together, then we WILL make the playoffs.

And if we don't, then it is entirely our fault.

It's still in our own hands, people. Believe!

Get real. Very good run or not playoffs are now out of the question.

: Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:28 pm  

chris20 wrote:

Get real. Very good run or not playoffs are now out of the question.

Real?

IF we had something that counted as a "very good run", then we would be certainties to make the playoffs. Do the maths!

: Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:56 pm  

I think that 7 wins - taking us to 27 points - should get us in.

That means we can only afford to lose one more match! Unfortunately, there's pretty well no evidence from this season that we can win 7 out of 8....

: Sat Jul 18, 2009 8:23 pm  

paulwalker71 wrote:

I don't know what on earth Noble is on about by saying that we have 'good rudders'

'Rudderless' is one word - one of the limited number that I can repeat - that I've often used to describe us this season

we do have the trialist rudd,may be thats what he's on about

: Sat Jul 18, 2009 8:29 pm  

it's all very well for him to try and put a positive spin on things, but the best way for mcnamara to do that is to STFU, stop releasing any press statements that relate to the game and actually try and coach the side to play like professionals.

just the basics will do. hold on to the ball. support the ball carrier. things like that. i know they're radical ideas for this years team to grasp, but if you're serious about making the play-offs and you're not just trying to placate the wolves at the door with a stick of celery you might want to try telling the team a few home truths

: Sat Jul 18, 2009 9:13 pm  

Well personally I think we need at least 28 points to make playoffs meaning we need to win every remaining game. Realistically we have no chance of doing that.

: Sat Jul 18, 2009 9:17 pm  

chris20 wrote:

Well personally I think we need at least 28 points to make playoffs meaning we need to win every remaining game. Realistically we have no chance of doing that.

Be interested to see a mathematical proof of that!

If I had time and inclination, I'd be minded to build a spreadsheet model to model the permutations. My guess is that there might be some surprises.