[Uncle Rico]

Re: Today’s match v Saints. : Tue Sep 10, 2024 1:32 pm  

nathan_rugby wrote:

Really?

How will the games profile improve in that scenario?

Here's an example for you, 'it would change the narrative'...how the sport reflects on that and uses it is a different matter.

I understand that Wigan are the world's biggest club but taking us out of the equation, a win for Hull KR might incentivise others to have a real 'go' in future on the basis that their renaissance is well earned and come no too long after O'Brien's boot consigned them to lower league rugby.

They'd be worthy winners this year I'd also suggest that IF we got there folk couldn't cock a snoot at us and the work that Burgess and Co have put in.

It may suit my narrative but IMO the sport needs the monopoly to broken by having a selection of stronger, capable teams and well run clubs that succeed on merit rather than the familiar accusation of the lower level clubs dragging everyone down to their level. A couple of thousand on each gate, more TV viewing, pushing revenue streams instead of it (us) being pushed around.

A pipe dream perhaps but a GF of Wigan v Saints won't deliver anything for the game as a whole

Re: Today’s match v Saints. : Tue Sep 10, 2024 2:29 pm  

nathan_rugby wrote:

Really?

How will the games profile improve in that scenario?

I can see you’re taking offence but I can’t make ou why.

Re: Today’s match v Saints. : Tue Sep 10, 2024 3:21 pm  

nathan_rugby wrote:

You honestly think Warrington have a 33.33% chance of winning the grand final? Despite finishing 3rd, having never won it before and having to play 1 extra game than the teams finishing 1st or 2nd?

The bookies completely disagree also.
Wigan 10/11
Hull KR 11/4
Warrington 4/1

If anything I think the bookies are overly generous to Warrington. Implied probability in %.

Wigan 10/11 52.4%
Hull KR 11/4 26.7%
Warrington 4/1 20.0%

Re: Today’s match v Saints. : Tue Sep 10, 2024 3:25 pm  

Uncle Rico wrote:

Here's an example for you, 'it would change the narrative'...how the sport reflects on that and uses it is a different matter.

I understand that Wigan are the world's biggest club but taking us out of the equation, a win for Hull KR might incentivise others to have a real 'go' in future on the basis that their renaissance is well earned and come no too long after O'Brien's boot consigned them to lower league rugby.

They'd be worthy winners this year I'd also suggest that IF we got there folk couldn't cock a snoot at us and the work that Burgess and Co have put in.

It may suit my narrative but IMO the sport needs the monopoly to broken by having a selection of stronger, capable teams and well run clubs that succeed on merit rather than the familiar accusation of the lower level clubs dragging everyone down to their level. A couple of thousand on each gate, more TV viewing, pushing revenue streams instead of it (us) being pushed around.

A pipe dream perhaps but a GF of Wigan v Saints won't deliver anything for the game as a whole

Exactly the sport is crying out for a new name on the title. It's been a 3 horse race for 20 years.

Re: Today’s match v Saints. : Tue Sep 10, 2024 3:25 pm  

Uncle Rico wrote:

Here's an example for you, 'it would change the narrative'...how the sport reflects on that and uses it is a different matter.

I understand that Wigan are the world's biggest club but taking us out of the equation, a win for Hull KR might incentivise others to have a real 'go' in future on the basis that their renaissance is well earned and come no too long after O'Brien's boot consigned them to lower league rugby.

They'd be worthy winners this year I'd also suggest that IF we got there folk couldn't cock a snoot at us and the work that Burgess and Co have put in.

It may suit my narrative but IMO the sport needs the monopoly to broken by having a selection of stronger, capable teams and well run clubs that succeed on merit rather than the familiar accusation of the lower level clubs dragging everyone down to their level. A couple of thousand on each gate, more TV viewing, pushing revenue streams instead of it (us) being pushed around.

A pipe dream perhaps but a GF of Wigan v Saints won't deliver anything for the game as a whole

Plenty of outsiders have gotten to grand finals, albeit not won it, and that hasn't achieved what you are saying. Surely based on your theory Hull, Salford, Catalans, Warrington and Castleford should have upped their game and won it by now? Or does it only apply once you have won it?

Re: Today’s match v Saints. : Tue Sep 10, 2024 3:27 pm  

Captain Hook wrote:

I can see you’re taking offence but I can’t make ou why.

Because I am trying to decipher between theory and reality.

If Warrington or Hull win it, for the first time, what will actually happen to realistically change the games profile?

Re: Today’s match v Saints. : Tue Sep 10, 2024 3:32 pm  

nathan_rugby wrote:

Plenty of outsiders have gotten to grand finals, albeit not won it, and that hasn't achieved what you are saying. Surely based on your theory Hull, Salford, Catalans, Warrington and Castleford should have upped their game and won it by now? Or does it only apply once you have won it?

I think it's more for the credibility of the competition. The salary cap is completely failing to deliver any diversity or "even playing field" whilst at the same time crippling the wealthier clubs and diluting quality. It's also failed to stop clubs going bankrupt.

I don't think it will turn around the fortunes of RL though. I fear RL is moribund without the involvement of the NRL.

Re: Today’s match v Saints. : Tue Sep 10, 2024 5:10 pm  

nathan_rugby wrote:

What are you talking about? My use of could and in theory are because I cannot be certain and there are multiple scenarios.

Statistically speaking you are completely wrong. Even when you ignore statistics you are wrong.

You honestly think Warrington have a 33.33% chance of winning the grand final? Despite finishing 3rd, having never won it before and having to play 1 extra game than the teams finishing 1st or 2nd?

The bookies completely disagree also.
Wigan 10/11
Hull KR 11/4
Warrington 4/1

In which case to say my post is untruthful, is utter bollox.

I’ll give you a piece of advice, and you’re free to do with it as you wish…

Bookies trust stats because they have too. And yes the longer the stats are, the more reliable they become.
But bookies also lose, otherwise we wouldn’t use them.
And they lose because a times the stats breakdown.

The stats now show Warrington with greater odds, but only in the last month.
Wire have gone against the stats grain and lost a couple of games in the last month, that they really ought to have won, and where heavy odds on to do so.
Those 2 games have turned the stats on its head.

Now what bookies hate, is someone having a little bit of knowledge.
There are reasons why Warrington got beaten.
Warrington playing disadvantage in numbers. Resting players, key players, Dufty, out injured, with a view to be ready soon.

In addition Wire played 2 big derby games back to back, and one with disadvantaged in numbers and won them big, but found themselves fatigued 6 days later against a fresh KR team.
These are all very sound reasons to Warrington failing v KR and in the last month.
Those circumstances twist the form guide/stats to make Wire look the lest best out of the top 3. We are not.

Those little bits of knowledge is what makes someone who isn’t close enough to the club, to only trust the stats.
It’s how gamblers at the bookies lose their money.
It’s called “paper form”…and bookies love it!!

I know that Warrington at near full strength, that don’t find themselves playing a man down, will easily beat Hull KR, and will edge Wigan.

I trust what I have seen, not what the form guide says.
I hope you will not lose too much money on Hull KR, but you will lose, and you can take that to the bank.

Re: Today’s match v Saints. : Tue Sep 10, 2024 8:16 pm  

Vast majority of people in the bookies lose money for a pastime or, at the other end, have a gambling addiction/dependancy. It's why Fred Done is a billionaire and why regular punters are not.

If Wire edge Wigan with such certainty. What happened at Wembley?

Wigan are the team most likely to win the GF in my view.

Re: Today’s match v Saints. : Tue Sep 10, 2024 9:25 pm  

Wires71 wrote:

Vast majority of people in the bookies lose money for a pastime or, at the other end, have a gambling addiction/dependancy. It's why Fred Done is a billionaire and why regular punters are not.

If Wire edge Wigan with such certainty. What happened at Wembley?

Wigan are the team most likely to win the GF in my view.

I respect your view.

In my opinion we lost at Wembley not because Wigan were better team finite, but because they were the least poorest on the day.

Unknown to me on the day of Wembley…
Warrington we’re always going to lose that game, because simply Sam Burgess made to one mistake you should never do at Wembley… he played Fitzgibbon knowing he was injured.

So the point where ability meets with preparation was ripped up before we’d even kicked a ball.
I hope Sam has learnt a big lesson.

If I had a worry, it’s that Sam may make the same mistake in a GF and play another injured player. That’s the only way I can see us losing the GF.