[Uncle Rico]

Re: Where will we finish : Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:00 pm  

i genuinely hope that I'm off the mark here as I'm usually in the optimistic camp and it pains me to say it, but as it stands I think the best we can muster is a dogfight for the last play off spot before narrowly missing out.

Re: Where will we finish : Wed Nov 27, 2019 2:41 pm  

Based on recent history, the stats indicate ...

We have an even chance of getting to Wembley and then an even chance of winning the CC
We will most likely make the playoffs.
We have a 1/4 chance of making the final which we will lose.

Re: Where will we finish : Wed Nov 27, 2019 3:08 pm  

rubber duckie wrote:

Top plus win CC and GF....and WCC

Nurse.....nurse.....hes out of bed again

Re: Where will we finish : Wed Nov 27, 2019 3:09 pm  

History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero

Re: Where will we finish : Wed Nov 27, 2019 4:05 pm  

rubber duckie wrote:

History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero

Dont understand.

Re: Where will we finish : Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:08 pm  

Wires71 wrote:

Dont understand.

It means I don't agree with your stats and odds again.

Re: Where will we finish : Wed Nov 27, 2019 9:26 pm  

Wires71 wrote:

Based on recent history, the stats indicate ...

We have an even chance of getting to Wembley and then an even chance of winning the CC
We will most likely make the playoffs.
We have a 1/4 chance of making the final which we will lose.

I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.

At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:

Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%

That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.

Re: Where will we finish : Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:10 pm  

Can easily see us finishing 7th or 8th unless Price comes up with better tactics.
He seemed totally lost in the 2nd half of last season except for in the cup.
And he tried to play the cup tactics in the league after the CC win. It failed

Our squad is full of top performers but Price isn't getting anywhere near the best out of them and I've seen absolutely nothing to show he knows how to.

I hope I'm wrong but for the 1st time since Lowe's was the coach I can't say I'm looking forward to the season.

[Winslade's Offload]

Re: Where will we finish : Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:28 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.

At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:

Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%

That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.

Did you allow for the possibility of one of the top clubs being docked points for breaching the salary cap ? I only ask because my model suggests we have a 13% chance of winning the LLS.

Re: Where will we finish : Thu Nov 28, 2019 8:42 am  

I'm going 5th this year, open the campaign with 2 losses. Price gone by Easter. Saints Wigan Leeds Hull Wire Huddersfield to drop. Interesting article over on the RFL site regarding 2020 final table https://www.superleague.co.uk/article/1 ... e-will-end

I'm going 5th this year, open the campaign with 2 losses. Price gone by Easter. Saints Wigan Leeds Hull Wire Huddersfield to drop. Interesting article over on the RFL site regarding 2020 final table https://www.superleague.co.uk/article/1 ... e-will-end