Re: Where will we finish : Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:06 am  

rubber duckie wrote:

It means I don't agree with your stats and odds again.

That's fair enough but I don't think your utterance was an English sentence.

"History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero"

Re: Where will we finish : Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:12 am  

sally cinnamon wrote:

I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.

At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:

Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%

That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.

Based on last 10 seasons.
Making Wembley 6/10 = 60%
Winning the CC 4/10 = 40%
LLS 2/10 = 20%
Making the playoffs = 9/10 = 90%
Making the GF = 4/10 = 40%
Winning the GF = 0/10 = 0%

Price Tenure
Making Wembley 2/2 = 100%
Winning the CC 1/2 = 50%
LLS 0/2 = 0%
Making the playoffs = 2/2 = 100%
Making the GF = 1/2 = 50%
Winning the GF = 0/2 = 0%

Statistically we are better with Price than the average of the last 10 years. But it doesn't feel like that.

Re: Where will we finish : Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:27 pm  

Let’s be blunt, for 2/3rds of the season we played like a team that had been introduced to each other half an hour before kick off. The most important question is, has SP learned his lesson?

Re: Where will we finish : Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:50 pm  

Captain Hook wrote:

has SP learned his lesson?

What lesson though? He was of the opinion it was a successful season. It was KP who had do disavow that opinion.

I'm not expecting Price to have a volte-face and deliver the equivalent of the Harlem Globetrotters next season.

Re: Where will we finish : Thu Nov 28, 2019 6:21 pm  

It depends on what the objectives of the club are. If Price is instructed to win, obtain a successful win:loss ratio and reach the major finals, his approach is unlikely to change.

However, if KF wants to push this ‘brand’ he may suggest a more attractive style accepting that comes at an occasional slip up.

Re: Where will we finish : Thu Nov 28, 2019 6:46 pm  

Karl Fitzpatrick, such a joker

He’s got us with more “ stage props” off the field than “ props” on it.

And just to re- emphasise, If last season wasn’t a successful season, I’ll take another unsuccessful season this time round.

Re: Where will we finish : Thu Nov 28, 2019 6:56 pm  

Too right....offer me a CC win on no GF....I'd take it...but I still expect us win everything.
Another pathetic back end stretch or lose any of our 1st three games....I'll run him the airport myself.

Re: Where will we finish : Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:30 pm  

rubber duckie wrote:

Too right....offer me a CC win on no GF....I'd take it...but I still expect us win everything.
Another pathetic back end stretch or lose any of our 1st three games....I'll run him the airport myself.

I would take 1 GF win over all the 4 CC wins.

Re: Where will we finish : Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:31 pm  

Superblue wrote:

And just to re- emphasise, If last season wasn’t a successful season, I’ll take another unsuccessful season this time round.

It's interesting as you claim not winning the GF as successful?

Re: Where will we finish : Thu Nov 28, 2019 8:19 pm  

Superblue wrote:

Karl Fitzpatrick, such a joker

He’s got us with more “ stage props” off the field than “ props” on it.

And just to re- emphasise, If last season wasn’t a successful season, I’ll take another unsuccessful season this time round.

And you will probably have a lot more elbow room while doing so