Tonight's betting tips : Fri Jul 19, 2013 9:40 am
My first prediction for this evening is for Catalans Dragons to win away at Salford.The Bookies as always are offering very poor value in the popular markets such as a straightforward win, which is as little as 2/5 on.
But if we take a minimal handicap per half then we should be just about level if Catalans play poorly and win only one half, whilst we should expect to see them win both halfs and do tolerably well from it.
I'd consider these to be five star plays:
Catalan Dragons -2.0 - 1st Half Handicap Betting - Odds 4/5
Catalan Dragons -4.0 - 2nd Half Handicap Betting - Odds Evens
Salford haven't won at home since May and Catalans are bordering on fourth/fifth and they will be fired up after their inept performance when they dropped the ball every few minutes in front of their negative minded fans last week that is for sure.
The next game to look at is London Broncos v Widnes.
Widnes haven't even won a third of their games this season, so it is surprising to see they are considered such a hot odds on favourite.
It is difficult to 'cap this one as a supporter because emotion sometimes plays a part and there are a lot of highly tempting markets with odds around 10/1 or more such as a London win by 13+ and a come back after half time etc and I have struggled to resist throwing money into the pot, as I do not see Widnes as particularly good, bar for Hock and a few of the backs and even then Ah Van is missing.
I think our fringe backs will be highly motivated with a potential cup semi final place on offer and we are comparatively fresh having played on Friday, whilst Widnes were battered in near 30 degree heat on Monday night and that is sure to play a part in the game. 34 year old Hooker Jon Clarke cannot be expected to back up again with full intensity but it looks like Betts uses sub Hooker Gore very sparingly, so this will be an issue for Widnes.
Whenever you tip an underdog to cover you should think they will genuinely go close, rather than e.g. are sure to be beat but may stay under the handicap by the skin of their teeth, so this one I like a lot, especially with our powerful forwards pretty much all in and two good Hookers to rotate. I'm very confident we will at least cover, so London Broncos +16.0 - 10/11 is one prediction, lets call it a four star play. Our odds could drift further out and if so I would be even more keen especially for +19. 8/1 for a win would also tempt me in.
A two star play in the same game is Rhodri Lloyd - Anytime Try Scorer - 7/4 - London Broncos. I think that is great odds for a quality centre against weak opposition. Normally you would be looking at 11/10 or so. This guy looks the real deal to me. The Wigan team are superbly conditioned and he looks a top player.
Sheffield Eagles -8 - 11/8 - this is more of a straightforward gamble in that I have seen Sheffield and been highly impressed with their work rate and durability and they have pretty much swept through their division winning week after week. There are many more knowledgeable tippers than I on the Championship, but the odds of 11/8 looked very attractive for what seems to be a stronger team against a weaker one. I'd consider this a one star bet as my knowledge is much poorer than it needs to be.
Bradford first to ten points v Hull FC - 11/10. Bradford came very close to winning last week away at Wigan and I feel that they can again get off to a good start. They have pretty much a full strength squad and I can see them winning this one against a Hull side who were immense in the tropics of Les Catalans and who have had a short turnaround. However I'm nervous that Bradford cannot sustain their performances throughout the game and FC are great at coming back in the last 15 minutes or so, so we will take Bradford to build a lead. Three star tip.
Oliver Wilkes - Anytime Try Scorer - 7/1 - Wakefield. Wilkes is a very strong player who runs good lines near the opposition tryline and if Tim Smith can hit him with the ball close to the line, I can see him crossing, especially if he comes on fresh around the half way mark. Two star tip.
Let me know how you get on
Cheers
Mark