Catalans v St Helens : Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:03 am
This one looks like a game where there may be some value given that the Bookies can't separate the two teams so there is the possibility of uncovering value by looking more closely at the game than their junior odds compilers who would be on our minority game with the football starting this weekend.I feel that Catalans do not have a roughly even chance this game, but are actually clear underdogs.
A full strength Catalans team will beat a full strength Saints side but this is a half strength and off form Catalans side versus a three quarter strength Saints side on form.
Catalans are missing a host of forwards including their Captain and best French player Remi Casty at Openside Prop plus his regular partner the Blindside Prop, Bousquet. They are also without first choice packmen like L Anderson and Baitieri plus Elima off the bench.
They are also without Webb, Blanch, Dureau and Baile which are all players that would contend for a place and are arguably first choice whilst Cardace and Pala are also missing from the backs in their top 25.
Thus you can strip out half of their top players.
The interchange bench should be: Fakir, B Garcia, Pelissier and Larroyer, with Maria & Barthau not used. This looks a relatively light pack.
I am expecting them to line up with: Escare, Duport, Menzies, Millard, Vaccari, Pryce, Bosc, Paea, Henderson, Simon, Taia, Whitehead, Mounis.
Since they won 22-12 at St Helens on 12th April the Catalans have lost at home to Hudds, Hull KR & Hull FC, plus failed to win against all three of Widnes, Wakefield and Salford on the road. They have also struggled to put away both London and Castleford and only convinced in the second half at the Magic weekend and when they beat Hull FC 30-4 in the past 10 games.
Thus they have home advantage which is considerable but too many Frenchies in key positions.
Saints are a hot and cold side. They have invested in bricks and mortar but not in squad depth. Beyond squad number 17 it is pretty much all academy players. Thus you need to look very closely at the Saints squad. It can sometimes get away with two or three youngsters in the backs but not really do the same in the forwards
However at the moment their squad is looking strong given its structural weaknesses
They are missing James Roby who is their best player but aside from that only Flanagan, Gardner, Perry and Wheeler are missing from their squad. Gardner and Wheeler are very replaceable and Saints have four good experienced Props so Perry is not a big miss.
This side is probable: Lomax, Makinson, Turner, Meli, Swift, Wilkin, O'Brien, Puletua, Howarth, Laffranchi, Manu, Soliola, Clough with four replacements from: McCarthy-Scarsbrook, Walmsley, Jones, Wellens, Hohaia
They have won 4 from their last 5 games and have saved their best performances for on the road with wins at Leeds & Warrington and a very resolute performance at Huddersfield away earlier in the year whilst last week they won at home v Wigan. This is tremendous form.
If you study this fixture further you will see Saints have won in Catalans four years in a row.
It is true that they lost the reverse fixture this but the Catalans side that day was much stronger. Blanch, Casty, Anderson and Baitieri were all in whilst Saints had players like Tilley, Greenwood and Percival plus Josh Jones and Wellens in the starting pack.
I'm confident Saints will win this one and have taken them with -4 at 11/8. That's a four star bet for me. I'm all in with the remainder of my £100 betting bank for the weekend.
I think that offers great value in what should be a close run game, rather than e.g. 10/11 for just a win for either side.
Easy
Rammo
