Re: Bottom 4 in SL next year. : Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:21 am  

gutterfax wrote:

A quick glance at the teams who finished 9-12 this year, who will all have improved slightly for 2015 whilst we've stepped down a peg, shows that they collectively defeated us by an average score of 46-15 over the 8 games last year. We got close to Wakefield in atrocious conditions, but in reality we were easy-beats in the rest of the games.
No matter if we defeat everyone, including Bradford and Leigh twice, finishing on 44 points in 2015 it is the ability to defeat 2 of the teams from SL (OR THE SAME TEAM TWICE) that will get us back into Superleague.

If the Championship team that makes the Million Quid Game get's hammered for a couple of seasons, how many of these "non-events" will the RFL permit before they change the format to 1 up/1 down again? Of all the teams I saw relegated in my time as a London Broncos supporter, only Halifax and Leigh didn't "bounce back". Salford, Widnes and Castleford all managed to come back and HKR seem to have done OK.

As for Fax and Leigh, both clubs seem to have benefited from their time outside of the franchised comp, putting down decent foundations for sustainable growth.....I don't see licencing as a bad thing and I suspect it may well be back in the pretty near future. Let's hope we get an invite, because I really can't see us getting back by any other means.

good comments here gf....i think we may see this for a few years....then 1 up 1down!

[brian2]

Re: Bottom 4 in SL next year. : Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:26 am  

I'm giving the new system two years, or three depending on how patient Sky are, before we have another reorganisation. As far as the bottom four are concerned, outside of Wakey I think that it could be anyone other than the big five of Saints, Wigan, Wire, Leeds and Catalans.

I agree with the Chronicler about the big 5, though over the last 2 years i think you would have to add Huddersfield and make that the top 6. As A Hull FC season ticket holder for 22 years i dont believe Hull will be as poor next season, so I would make that 7.

Given Cas's season its a surprise to see them in the potential bottom 4 group, but their squad has undergone a huge overhaul, so a bit of an unknown quantity. However i think Powell is a good coach, they should retain some team spirit and momentum for last season, so i would say they will be safe.

So my bottom 4 will be: Widnes, WakeField, Salford, and Hull KR. I agree with everyone else that Wakefield are the weakest of that bunch and the one who a championship team could beat!

Re: Bottom 4 in SL next year. : Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:08 am  

gutterfax wrote:

... it is the ability to defeat 2 of the teams from SL (OR THE SAME TEAM TWICE) that will get us back into Superleague.

Facts wrong again I see.

Re: Bottom 4 in SL next year. : Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:47 am  

It's probably right but ignores that you can lose to all SL teams and then win the play-off and so only beat a SL team once.

Another possibility is one of the SL teams has a mare. If a SL team loses all it's games against other SL opponents as well as more than one against champ sides then it could feasibly miss the million pound game altogether. The chance of this happening is very small and the likelihood is even if a SL team loses 4 games it will still make the million pound game.

The assumption has to be that SL teams will beat Champ sides in the seven games and then split the points against each other and so the only hope is that one off game.

Re: Bottom 4 in SL next year. : Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:54 am  

meliferra wrote:

you can lose to all SL teams and then win the play-off and so only beat a SL team once.

Correct. Hugely better odds than having to beat a SL team twice - let's say a 0.2 probability vs a 0.2*0.2 probability.

Re: Bottom 4 in SL next year. : Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:04 am  

Whoever finishes fourth in the 8s gets the home advantage in this decider so odds are heavily loaded.

Re: Bottom 4 in SL next year. : Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:11 pm  

Rugby League has always re invented itself! Trying to find a system that works or a sytem that is appealing to the fans/teams/tv/ etc.
Everyone thought the Aus system with franchise would be the holy grail! It proved to not be that successful.
The System that has been brought in with the super 8s! adds excitment!!!!?? at least it makes every game worth playing. As proven with straight one up one down, you can end up with 4-5-6 games at the end of the season that for you!!! are meaningless.
Personally I think their may be a surprise or two with the super 8's, if wakey/Salford/Widnes have a mare os a season they will be coming into the 8's with low confidence and playing teams that have been probably winning.
SL bottom 4! outside bet Saints with cunningham in charge!!!!!!!!! Wakey! Salford! Widnes ok Saints unlikely so will say KR
As for who we could beat!any of em!