Tips for Catalans game : Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:12 pm
Catalans are leaking points at the moment and have twice conceded 30 v the likes of Wakefield and Castleford in recent games, plus lost at home to Hull KR last time out and conceded 60 at Huddersfield.They are missing Leon Pryce, Steve Menzie, Brent Webb, Louis Anderson and Daryl Millard from their overseas contingent plus Fakir, Simon, Elima and Baitieri.
I think we can score towards the higher end of our 18-24 range earlier this season.
We have been in the game twice this season at half time in one and about 60 minutes the other. I think a largely French only side will struggle to put 40-50 against what is our best side for ages.
If we can get the 24 I'm expecting we would then need to conceed 50 points to lose the bet. I don't see that happening.
You can commonly get around 28 or 30 points on the handicap. However in reality that is more or less equivalent to between four and five tries. London Broncos to win with +26 points handicap with Ladbrokes (Handicap eight) at 11/10 looks more attractive.
The no draw handicap of +30.5 is materially different by being over five tries is paying much meaner odds of as little as 8/11 but I would take that versus the 10/11 for 28 if you are more pessimistic.
The squad we have named suggests a starting place for Wigan second rower or centre Lloyd. He is 6"3 and 15 1/2 stone and has scored in two thirds of his academy games. If he plays at centre he will be greatly overvalued at 7/1 to score at anytime. Two tries at 50/1 is also conceivable.
Thus I am tipping Rhodri Lloyd 7/1 to score at anytime and Rhodri Lloyd to score 2 or more tries 50/1
Fairbank at a similar 7/1 looks relatively attractive, whilst first away try scorer looks wide open with Dixon out. Dorn at 4/1 is appalling value to be first away scorer. You'd be better to go on Soward 4/1 anytime scorer than touch that one.
Cheers
Rammo