Hello Poplar,
As always with any selections you can only find 'value' once the bookies publish the odds.
The bookies tend to offer extremely poor value for the perceived 'favourite'. I believe our odds will be something like 8/15 to win, even though we have lost 7 in a row and are playing a team that have won 15 in a row.
History shows that no more than one Championship club per year will defeat a Super League club and this will weigh heavily in a mathematical model.
The handicap is likely to be +12 to +14 in Broncos favour and perhaps +8 per half.
The Bookies aim is to retain all the funds on this three way bet of course as few punters will back the handicap draw.
A lower handicap than 12 (or six per half) would mean that you could simply back the Super League club to outscore a National League club by a converted try in one or both of the two halves and win at near evens, so I don't see the Bookies going for this.
A higher handicap than about 16 would mean that you could simply predict Sheffield to get within three tries to the rival team who tends to leak 30-40 a game, and this is again all too plausible, so I don't see the Bookies going for this either.
A front three of Kaufusi, Lee and Wheeldon with an interchange of the likes of Bryant, Clubb, Rodney and Fairbank and with Fisher or Bishay as the replacement Hooker means we will win a forward oriented game.
I will thus be looking to see these names (Clubb, Rodney and Fairbank) on the team sheeet to go higher than +12 or +8 in the second half. In simple terms, the better teams can provide continuous momentum impetus, by bringing on e.g. a Carvell for a Morley rather than a momentum stopper who is simply there to give someone a rest but provides limited go forward and defense.
If we can only play the lesser forwards, it will take the strength/size advantage away and in a straightforward match between the two sets of outside backs would give Sheffield a greater chance by e.g. putting up Yere against O'Callaghan or having an expert kicker place the ball in uncomfortable positions knowing Dorn is comparatively slow and indecisive when running towards his own line. If Sheffield get momentum then factors like home advantage, confidence etc could then play a bigger part than they would if the home fans are silenced by their team being simply steamrolled from minute one.
What offers me a lot of encouragement as a supporter is that whilst Sheffield have won a lot of games, they have are not defensively excellent and have won 6 times by 8 or less points. Hunslet, Barrow, Doncaster and Workington have all scored 20-28 points versus them. I would expect us to be able to outscore any of these teams. They are not a team who are likely to put someone completely out of the game.
My current thinking is that if the named reserve forwards are available, then we will be looking at a range of 30-38 points, probably the higher end of this range, but we will concede upto 20-24 points. I do not see an equal distribution of points but us getting stronger near the end and scoring more. That is where there could be value.
Without the extra quality on the bench, a London win of 1-12 or a +12 on the handicap for the Eagles will be attractive as I do not see Dollapi, Krasniqi or the academy guys overpowering anyone. Of course I will examine other scenarios, different handicaps etc. It may be advantageous to take e.g. +15 at higher odds than +12 at below evens. You need real value. Not the bookies standard 5/6 on an evens chance!
Cheers
Mark
PS There could be value in the player betting on forwards for this game - I'd expect our backs to be at miserable odds like 4/6 on, but the forwards could easily plough over. Kaufusi must be due a try!
