Super League tips for this afternoon : Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:56 am
I've done a lot of study of the Warrington v Hull KR game and the Huddersfield v Castleford game.Warrington have the irreplaceable Westwood sat in the stands whilst they will also miss Morley, whilst the absence of Atkins, Grix and Myler seems likely to disrupt their combinations in the backs.
They got off to a flyer against Huddersfield and this was partly down to the fact that the Giants only completed 3 from 12 sets in the first twenty minutes and they had two thirds possession. But they looked weaker after the rotations that is for sure and only scored about 20 points in the last hour.
I believe Warrington will score two of the first three tries at home, so first to 10 points looks a nice bet.
If you look at the data, Hull KR have only conceded 40 points or more three times v Wigan (twice) and Huddersfield but in this game they are fresh, have pretty much their best 17 and are in their best form of the season.
I just do not see Hull KR leaking more than six tries in a game I expect to be much tighter than that, especially as KR beat Warrington 26-12 earlier in the year.
Can Warrington score over 40 points for the second week in a row?
Will the game be one in which over 10 tries are scored?
I believe the answer will, in both counts, be a 'no'.
So the first three bets to consider are these:
Warrington Wolves v Hull KR Home team points 2 Under +40.5 2/5
Warrington Wolves v Hull KR Total match tries Under +10.5 4/6
Warrington Wolves v Hull KR Home team points 2 Under +40.5 2/5
The other bets of interest are on Huddersfield.
The Bookies have set the handicap at around 16-18 points and I think Huddersfield will get close to that, especially with Castleford sure to be weaker in the forwards without Keith Mason and Ryan Boyle in the Props and having to throw in Davies and Fleming - squad men in a well coached but limited outfit.
I think Huddersfield will bounce back from an awful performance at Warrington, yet one in which they still scored 24 points with only one third possession. I can see them getting up to around 36 points without much issue and if we look at the tips below we can still afford for Cas to get even four converted tries and still win.
Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers Handicap betting 10 Huddersfield Giants -8.0 4/9
Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers Away team points 2 Under +25.5 1/3
Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers Half-time/Full-time Huddersfield Giants/Huddersfield Giants 1/3
Now, I can see we would not be happy to take short odds favourites in isolation, as we would still only break even if we get about three from four right.
So my staking strategy for this is that I have gone for 9 doubles in this game, mixing one odds on selection from Warrington with one odds on from Huddersfield and each bet comes in at around evens.
The Bookies will not allow multiple selections from one game as a correlated parlay, so in this one we will run the different permutations on this:
Warrington Wolves v Hull KR Race to 10 Points Warrington Wolves 2/5
Warrington Wolves v Hull KR Home team points 2 Under +40.5 2/5
Warrington Wolves v Hull KR Total match tries Under +10.5 4/6
Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers Handicap betting 10 Huddersfield Giants -8.0 4/9
Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers Away team points 2 Under +25.5 1/3
Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers Half-time/Full-time Huddersfield Giants/Huddersfield Giants 1/3
If all these doubles come in our combined odds are slightly over 2:1.
My favourite from all of these is Castleford to score under 25.5 points at Huddersfield - I just cannot see them scoring five tries nor being in the game long enough to be looking to take kickable penalties.
Rammo