Re: wire game : Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:07 am  

gutterfax wrote:

On closer inspection: A scan of ticket availability for September 13th shows that there about 200 seats unavailable in those areas that are to be open. If you take it that these are members, then we are looking at about 200 people who have paid either £213, £234 or £563 for the 2014 season, + 5 months of...er, having a seat.


If you say 10% at the top end, 20% in the mid range and 70% in the bottom range, then £30,000 is the income from Season Tickets....sorry, Memberships this year.

Now, that leaves 1,050 as the current average for "walk-up" fans. Let's say that 250 of these are Freebies.....either local kids or Barnet FC fans, then that is 800 paying on the gate....using the 3 top prices of £23, £25 and £49 and the same % splits as above you get £20,800 on the gate.

13 Home games at £20,800 and your £30,000 from Memberships delivers £300,400.

Let's say I am being unfair......let's call it 450 of the 1050 that are freebies........then this figure drops to £232,800....that's with 36% of the crowd there FOC

My maths may be slightly off, but unless we've been letting everyone in for nothing, then I'd say I'm not that far off. £900,000 in funding next year......if AK wants more income than £250,000 then we will end up spending more on the ground than the team. If Hughes is still in the chair, don't act surprised when it happens!

Drone

Re: wire game : Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:47 am  

I'm glad GF posted his facts as it allows for some analysis of what he is claiming.
His claim is that none of the members are Pensioners, Students or Children, indeed no paying customer who goes to Bronco games falls into these categories. He also assumes that not one of the members at the hive (Hive, Bronco, Barnet, Bees or Gym) took advantage of the 15% discount when bringing someone else with them and that no one sat in the £20 seats.

Again the key point of cost has been ignored. If Broncos attract sub 700 crowds next year then the west stand will not be opened and everyone will be sat in the East. Will TK expect a larger income than this year to turn over sufficient profit to make it worthwhile if he has cut costs?

The question is still unanswered as to whether Broncos and the Hive have\will come to an agreement where TK can ensure it's worth his while for Broncos to stay. I don't think guessing at ticket revenue and ignoring costs is really going to answer the question.

Re: wire game : Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:11 am  

What has ticket availability and a usual long winded one man assessment got to do with the Wire game? a few of us got warned once about going off topic, do we have any moderators left?

Yesterday was a sad day, and especially Wire to run up such a score, these new young guys coming through have had a real baptism of fire. Now we are officially relegated perhaps the pressure is off, would be so nice to get that first win before the end of the season, but everyone we play now will feel that we are a walk over!

Just got to pick ourselves up as they say, and dust ourselves down for next season!

Re: wire game : Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:34 am  

meliferra wrote:

I'm glad GF posted his facts as it allows for some analysis of what he is claiming.

Hey....happy to be 25% out.........still shows that we're worse off than when Hughes and MacKay had their brain fart.....if 20% of those in my maths are kids or beneficiaries (over 65 that is) then it still shows the level of income we surrendered to find a home at the last minute.

jaybs wrote:

, ......do we have any moderators left?

Boo Hoo.....where's the moderators when the bad man says bad things?
Grasses get glasses, snitches get stitches and whining pussies like you get ignored.....ain't life a bitch? Discuss the 60 point hammering all you like.........the reality is the club are loved and idiots like you ignoring the impending doom are somewhat to blame.

Re: wire game : Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:59 am  

Jabs well said.

Re: wire game : Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:06 pm  

Just seen the low lights on sky.
Embarassing!!!!

Re: wire game : Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:23 pm  

meliferra wrote:

I don't think guessing at ticket revenue and ignoring costs is really going to answer the question.

I didn't guess the cost of tickets, I simply used the plan of the stadium and then worked out how many members there were.

What I did do, was model a scenario where 70% of the PAYING attendees did so as adults at the lowest published price. I also factored in 36% of the attendees getting in for nothing.....but you roll out the kids and pensioners as some sort of magic number?

Basically put, if I take 100 of the 70% and crunch them as 50% discounted attendees, to go with the 36% on a freebie, then AK has still seen/will see in excess of £200,000 this year at the gate......not counting any residual income from beer and food sales or the shop, parking or any of the other tickets he clips. This also pays no heed to his marketing stipend that the RFL gave him, which he seems to have spent on travel cards for Buck and Dusty.

Hell.....I can actually take 200 and treat them as kids and pensioners, as well as 15% Hive member discounts and he's still up over £200,000........and he's still not happy.

Therefore.....if we stay at the Hive it will be as tenants and we will be paying a rent similar or greater to that which we faced at the Stoop.

Re: wire game : Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:00 pm  

I didn't say you guessed the cost of tickets. I said I thought your ticket revenue of over £300k was way off, something you now seem to be appreciating.

TK will be concerning himself with next years forecast based on expected ticket sales/costs and not making a decision based on being happy or sad on the current year. The claim that this years ticket revenue determines how much Broncos will pay next year is false.

Your last line is without any foundation and none of the assumptions that precede it actually prove the conclusion.

Re: wire game : Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:37 pm  

You know there is one thing i am going to look forward to next year.

being able to have a thread on here talking about the forthcoming game without the obligitory post from NZ quoting a bunch of pointless percentages, previous crowds, and revenue from the previous games against that club. Their will be no stats as most clubs we will not have played against

Re: wire game : Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:10 pm  

meliferra wrote:

I didn't say you guessed the cost of tickets. I said I thought your ticket revenue of over £300k was way off, something you now seem to be appreciating.

At a tenner a ticket he's taking £160,000 this year.....at £25 a pop he's taking £400,000. I reckon he's somewhere in the middle and as I have said, I've been doing this a long time with the Broncos and I am normally right within 5%.

meliferra wrote:

TK will be concerning himself with next years forecast based on expected ticket sales/costs and not making a decision based on being happy or sad on the current year. The claim that this years ticket revenue determines how much Broncos will pay next year is false.

The claim is that this years ticket revenue will dictate that the club WILL PAY RENT if they want to stay and if you think that AK will accept a rent lower than his income on the gate this year, then you need to get a grip.

meliferra wrote:

Your last line is without any foundation and none of the assumptions that precede it actually prove the conclusion.

Just for you....if we continue to average 1,250, then 16,250 will attend all season. We paid £222,244 in rent for the Stoop in 2012. Simple maths point to £13.68 as an average ticket price for the attendees generating the GATE revenue to cover that much "rent".

Tickets at The Hive for the cheapest member (adult non pensioner) work out at £16.61. Cheapest on the day ticket (adult-non pension/no code) is £20.00. Factor in the following....
16% (200) attendees are ST/Members paying a minimum of £13.68 = £2,736
32% (400) attendees are in for nothing.... = £0.00
26% (325) attendees are paying £20.00 = £6,500
10% (125) attendees are Kids paying £5 = £625
10% (125) attendees are pensioner paying £12 = £1,500
6% (75) attendees are Hive members who have accepted the 15% discount and pay £17 = £1,275.

Now.....remember, the above is based on cheap prices. It delivers £12,636 of match-day gate receipts or £164,268. It is based on 400 freebies per game and only 325 paying full price, so is skewed to suit the agenda that AK isn't coining it in. It takes no account of spend INSIDE his venue in HIS bars and food concessions or in HIS shop either. Nobody has parked a car in HIS car Park either......

AK was adamant at the start of the year that Freebies would be limited.......I have included 32% of this years crowds as freebies. If This figure was 16% freebies and the rest paying the cheapest price (£20), then AK's revenue is up by £52,000. If I'm out by the same numbers on Kids and pensioners? Wow....another £32,500. Bugger me......there's £250,000 in ticket revenue based on 200 Members, 125 kids/pensioners, 200 freebies per game and the rest paying to sit in the cheapest corner seats........not 1 person has paid for a premium ticket.......as I say, if I am 5% out as I have been in the past......well what do you know, you have a similar figure to that we used to pay in rent to the Stoop.

Next year the club will get an average of 500 fans paying £15 each to 11 regular season games, then maybe 750 to 4 ties against SL clubs with prices at £20. There's £142,500 on the gate for 15 games.....if it costs AK more than £9,500 to open said gates, he'll charge us rent.....and he has the added bonus of Knowing that we have £900,000 of funding burning a hole in our back pockets. Downside for him is that if we do pay rent, WE set the pricing for his stadium.......you wendyball fans won't be too impressed with that