Re: Predictions for the Middle 8 : Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:27 am  

I suspect that the RFL want to swap Bradford for Wakey and then find a way of rigging the system so that SL then effectively become a closed shop. Although this looks the most likely scenario at the moment, Wakey seem to get written off every year only to finish up blowing a monumental raspberry at the pundits!

Re: Predictions for the Middle 8 : Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:56 am  

Once Wakey' Council get their act together, won't Wakey have a nicely updated modern venue? Why would the RFL prefer Bradford, especially given that the average attendances at both clubs have been going in opposite directions for the last 3 seasons at least. I think everyone thought Halifax would be saved by the RFL once upon a time, but they've been hung out to dry, as were Oldham and Worky'. I'm never sure what it is that tickles the fancy of those who run this sport, it seems to change more often than the rules (and that's saying summat!).

Re: Predictions for the Middle 8 : Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:36 pm  

The RFL own the lease on Odsal (not the freehold, as some people think).

Re: Predictions for the Middle 8 : Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:24 pm  

gutterfax wrote:

How many championship sides beat SL sides last year in competitive games? I ask, because holding your own in a one off is hardly the same as facing 4 SL sides all fighting for survival and all aware that +/- will be key, but if there was an upset last year, it might point to a part time outfit being able to stand toe to toe with a SL side who just missed the top 8.
As far as I can see, 4 Ties in last years 4th round featured a SL side v an opponent from a lower division.....the points scored by the SL side was 200-32 (50-8).....the 5th round saw 3 ties with the result 170-24 (57-8)....then 2 games 81-18 (40-9). Please feel free to define "holding your own"

When I said top end Championship teams I did not mean any Championship team. Both Leigh and Halifax held their own against teams that finished in the top 8 of SL, both Widnes and Leeds only sealing victory in the last quarters of both games yet both those teams at times last season had games sewn up by half time against teams in the bottom 4 of SL. Its all hypothetical but I would have fancied the top 3 in the Championship last season to finish above the bottom 2 or 3 in SL last season they were that poor. Poor full time SL players vs the best part time Championship players is an interesting debate. So while there wasnt an actual shock, probably more to do with the draw, we did see for 3 seasons before that where a team from the Championship has either drawn or beat a team from SL that did not end up finishing bottom of the league.

No matter how much the club spend, there is a finite number of talented players available and a dose of realism would point towards the 14 teams in the UK that are full time professional will have snapped up the best players.....I fully expect London Bradford and Leigh to win 18 games each next year with the 6 games featuring those three sides dictating the placings 1-3.......and I expect some real shallockings to be dished out in the first 23 rounds.....
The teams who finish 9-12th in SL will not be on anything other than the war-path, defending their SL livelihoods. This is not a Challenge Cup scenario where the plucky underdog will throw everything at the SL side in the hope their better financed opponents have a bad day, but a match against a team who are aware that every point for and against will count.....they will face 3 full time sides and a part time outfit and the part time outfit will be the easybeats of that comp.

I agree to some extent about number of players available but as I mention above I fully expect the best players in the Championship to be better than the worst full time players. You really think that there is not a player from out side the suspected top 3 next season that could not do a better job than some of the players that will turn out on a weekly basis for them? That maybe suggests that those full time teams havnt actually snapped up the best players rather that the best part time players can earn more money than playing for a very poor full time team. Take Halifax, 2 of our players turned down deals from lower end full time clubs and imo would be playing on a regular basis for those teams if they had chosen to leave.

I will bet you £50 to charity that those 3 teams you mention will not win every game against part time opposition next season. As for the hammerings you get that in every league every season so I wouldnt expect next to be any different. Have a look at Leighs results last season, they walked the league but even though they were by far the best team over the season some of their results were quite a bit closer than you would expect so in that regard there will be hammerings but you will also see the part time teams pull off one or two surprises, of that i am quite certain.

As for the middle 8, I agree the part time team will not stand a chance in there.

I believe the teams who finish 9th & 10th in SL will score over 350 points in their 7 games.....I believe 11th placed SL side will score in excess of 300. Happy to be proven wrong, but statistically I would seem to be on the money....The 4th round in 2013 average scores were 54-10......then 64-4 and then 29-10.......so 700-116 over 13 ties.

To recap... over 2013 and 2014 Lower league sides holding their own in 22 CC ties v SL sides resulted in an overall score-line of 1151-190...or 52-9 if you prefer averages......keep chuckling.

To use all the ties as an example is a bit pointless because some of them teams are never going to be anywhere near making that top 8. Its like trying to compare the top of SL to the bottom of SL and seeing how that works out, I bet if you did that you could probably come up with some similar figures.

Re: Predictions for the Middle 8 : Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:11 pm  

Greg Florimos Boots wrote:

I will bet you £50 to charity that those 3 teams you mention will not win every game against part time opposition next season..

Do you work for ladbrokes? If not you should do........I have to back 54 winners and you only 1?

Halifax and Leigh lost.
No matter how plucky they were or how close they got, they lost.....Leigh were by far the #1 team in that division last year and London were the #1 worst team in SL....one of these sides lost to Leeds, the other recorded a victory.

As for last years SL sides,
London were an utter basket case and we were the surest bet since....well, see your odds above....to go down....and WE BEAT LEEDS.
Bradford were a financial mess......and after they were docked the points, were assured of championship footy as London.

Both London and Bradford will be as strong, if not stronger than Leigh this year......Leigh lost once all year last year. The comp is a 3 horse race......it will be enjoyable none the less, but it is really a race for 4th in terms of the other teams.

Re: Predictions for the Middle 8 : Wed Jan 14, 2015 10:38 pm  

I guess you arnt as confident as you made out about Leigh, Bradford, and London winning all their games against part time opposition. The way you explained it you would expect it to be a no brainer right? Tenner to charity then?

Re: Predictions for the Middle 8 : Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:39 pm  

Greg Florimos Boots wrote:

I guess you arnt as confident as you made out about Leigh, Bradford, and London winning all their games against part time opposition. The way you explained it you would expect it to be a no brainer right? Tenner to charity then?

Give me 54/1?

Re: Predictions for the Middle 8 : Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:59 pm  

its for charity, you have made your prediction!!!! or you saying that it might not turn out that way?

Re: Predictions for the Middle 8 : Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:40 am  

mickyb1234 wrote:

its for charity, you have made your prediction!!!! or you saying that it might not turn out that way?

Michael, are you offering me 54/1?

Re: Predictions for the Middle 8 : Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:26 am  

Gotnofax Not sure if you actually said that the full time teams would win all their games against the part timers, but you have suggested that the full timers will win 18 out of 23.
But in answer no not gonna offer you any odds bloke who suggested a bet was merely asking if you will stand by your predictions at the end of the season, obviously you are not that confident.
Back on thread tho, I still reckon 1 champ team will finish 3rd in super 8 s with another in 5th. The issue will be the next season and building a squad to sustain.
interesting yesterday someone suggested we will see the same effect that the harlequins rah rah boys saw with an increase in support in the lower league.