Tip for Hull KR V Salford : Sun Jul 07, 2013 10:00 am
Today's game at Craven Park sees Hull KR play Salford in what is expected to be 23 degree heat.The teams are:
Hull KR (from): Salter, Withers, Walker, Netherton, Tuimavave, Cox, Mika, Burns, Horne, Brown, Hall, Paea, Hodgson, Lovegrove, Dobson, Paterson, Eden, Beaumont, Hodgson.
Salford (from): Broughton, Gibson, Gleeson, Gaskell, D Williams, Ashurst, Dixon, Wild, Godwin, McPherson, James, Neal, Fages, Sneyd, McGoldrick, Griffin, Jewitt, A Walne, Emmitt.
Hull KR have won 5 from the past 6, with the other defeat due to Steve Ganson at the Magic weekend, so they are in their best form of the season.
They have a far stronger pack than Salford and are boosted by the return of Liam Salter, Rhys Lovegrove and Jason Netherton plus Lincoln Withers at Hooker. Salford may be slightly stronger than against London with Gleeson and a different secondary Hooker, but neither is likely to have a major impact on the game.
Salford have conceded a minimum of 22 points in their past 12 games and are averaging 40 points a game even against the bottom six such as 30 v London, 46 v Wakefield, 30 v Castleford, 58 v Widnes and 28 & 36 v Bradford whilst they have been smashed against the better teams.
They have scored 10 or fewer points in 6 of their last 8 games and us aside have scored no more than 24 in a game all season away aside from against us, but they faded as usual in the second half.
Whilst by comparison, Craig Sandercock's Rovers have recorded wins over Bradford, Huddersfield, Catalan and, most recently, St Helens in the past month and have won the second half of their games at home by double figures.
I'm figuring that Hull KR will not just win this but by a comprehensive margin and thus am taking them with +10 in the second half v Salford at evens. The +18 for the game as a whole is not unattractive, but Salford will tire badly in the second half v a dominant pack
I reckon Hull KR will run in three or four tries in the Second Half, getting between 16-24 points, but Salford will score one or fewer, and probably not down the middle, which is where Hull KR are more likely to strike v a weaker pack.
The Bookies expect Hull KR to score about 38 to Salford's 19 over the game by the way and rate Hull KR at 1/10 on.
I do not believe Hull KR are overvalued with a full squad, sixth place and a play off spot to secure.
I also like the extra motivation that will be present from throwing away a 34-14 lead at Salford to lose 34-38 earlier in the year. Lightning will not strike twice.
Rammo