Catalans v Hull FC write up & tips : Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:03 am
This match will be played this afternoon at the Stade Gilbert Brutus, with the temperature at 28 degrees.Let us look at the relative strength of the Catalans squad.
In the Backs, we could surmise that Catalans are at full strength. The only major name missing is Brent Webb, but Morgan Escare appears to have permanently displaced him as the number one fullback at the club and become the top try scorer despite limited appearances. They will not miss fringe winger Cardace or reserve scrum half Barthau.
In the Forwards, Catalans can play their first choice Hookers but have many forwards missing.
The three Props of Elima, Bousquet and Simon are unavailable plus four back rowers in Anderson, Baitieri, Baile and Whitehead.
This perceived weakness in the forwards has been duly noted by the Bookies, who are expecting Catalans to win by only 2-4 points despite the fact that they have won 7 from 9 at home and beat Hull FC 30-4 just over a month ago on June 8th. They are expecting Catalans to fade a little at times with a weaker interchange bench.
Catalans (from): Blanch, Pryce, Taia, Bosc, Dureau, Henderson, Casty, Menzies, Mounis, Maria, Pelissier, Larroyer, Millard, Simon, Fakir, Paea, Duport, Vaccari, Escare
Let us now look at the relative strength of the Hull FC squad
If we start by looking at the outside backs, it could be argued that a back four of Lineham-Crooks-Yeaman-T Briscoe is as good as it gets in Super League whilst Arundel is a reasonable replacement and all are available today.
Behind them McDonnell is a reasonable fullback. The weakness at Hull FC is in the key playmaking positions with Brett Seymour returning to Australia and the continued unavailability of both Holdsworth and R Horne has caused major problems. Heremaia and Miller are yet to prove themselves as adequate replacements.
However, they are at pretty much full strength in the forwards. They have three great forwards in the team in Gareth Ellis, Danny Houghton and Andy Lynch and they are supplemented by O'Meley and Watts plus a range of backrowers like Tickle, Westerman and Whiting. Availability does not mean quality and the likes of Green and Pitts do not appear top quality whilst Galea looks to be fading from glory.
It should in theory mean a strong, if not outstanding bench.
Hull FC (from): Arundel, Briscoe, Crooks, Ellis, Galea, Green, Heremaia, Houghton, Lineham, Lynch, Miller, McDonnell, O'Meley, Pitts, Tickle, Watts, Westerman, Whiting, Yeaman
So let us now look at where we can find value.
This is the third match in a series between two teams. Both teams have previously won relatively easily with home advantage. In fact, if you look at both teams, they have incredible records at home but cannot consistently deliver on the road.
Catalans have won 7 times at home out of 9 whilst Hull have a roughly even record of wins, draws and losses away from home, so this is pointing to the home side being a potential favourite.
When we look at the fixtures between the teams, we will see that Catalans beat Hull FC 30-4 on June 8th, but lost at the KC 28-8 on April 7th.
Looking at the last game, just over a month ago, we can see that Catalans had a 17 which matches exactly with today’s match day squad.
Hull FC had Holdsworth in, who is their best half back, but missing today and Jason Crookes who is nowhere near the quality of international Tom Briscoe plus three unheralded forwards in Green, Johnson and Bowden. Today's forwards are far, far stronger than Johnson and Bowden - take O'Meley and Watts to be much better.
The key for Hull FC is in distributing the ball wide to their very talented three quarter line; if they can do this, they can win.
Selections
The Bookies are offering mediocre odds on a Catalans win, with Sky Sports offering as little as 4/9.
However if you look at Catalans wins at home, they have mainly been against the bottom six clubs and thus their record appears to be far stronger because of an uneven distribution of lesser teams.
Whilst Hull FC had won 9 from 10 until their recent string of near misses in which they have gone within a try about three times from four. They are seen as a bit weaker than they really are.
The consensus with the bookies is that Catalans will win by about 27.5 to 21.5, but I feel Hull FC will be more desperate and hungry and fight to save their season.
My FIVE STAR PICK (i.e. one I feel to be most probable) is under 9.5 tries in this game at 8/11. I just do not see both teams conceding five tries each, nor scoring as many as five tries each, in what is a massive game for both clubs, given their remote playoff chances.
My FOUR STAR PICK is for Catalans to be winning by over four points at Half Time. Basically I would feel that they should be in front at half time, as the favoured team, and 5/4 is very good value for what is a circumstance that I’d consider odds on – i.e. to be one converted try up. I feel that they will lead but won't hang on to the end.
My THREE STAR PICK is for Ben Crooks to score at any time at 10/11. He is in amazing form and has scored 19 tries this season. This price is a steal in my view.
My TWO STAR PICK is a slightly longer shot, but one I feel offers excellent value. My belief having examined the data is that Catalans tend to demonstrate a pattern. They often concede one or two early tries but then are solid for about a 30 minute period up until half time, then again are reasonably tight for the first 15 minutes after half time. But they then become very leaky. I can see Hull FC coming back to win and by a try or more, with the handicap of -4 at 15/8. If you follow my logic of a halftime lead for Catalans, you may also want to cover Catalan Dragons HT – Hull FC FT – 15/2.
My ONE STAR PICK (i.e. a small stakes play) is for Danny Houghton (Hull FC) to be Man of the match at 20/1.
He is likely to be out in the middle for the majority of the game and this isn't really included in his price which seems to be based on the more standard interchanged hooker. If he runs continuously from dummy half he will create havoc. With Hulls other playmakers weak by comparison, I believe this guy could dominate the game and should Hull win I can see him being man of the match, unless someone scores a hat-trick in his team.
Let me know how you all get on
Mark
